Don't know if this'll be that interesting but thought I'd share. One of my HBD teams has won 99, 87, and 81 games the last three seasons. Thing is, about 20 roster spots remain the same season to season and the other five or so have been significantly improved upon each season. So that 81 win team was actually quite a bit better than the 99 win team having 10ish players who were much better than their predecessors.
In SIM baseball you have tons of variables including competition variance, but in HBD there are a lot more controls than variables year in year out. So I found the luck factor a bit surprising. I always thought that a SIM team of mine probably finished within 8 games or so of where it ought to. A 95 win team might win 87 one time, then 103 another, but it might be a lot wider than that. So maybe some of my dud teams weren't so dud-ly after all?
Thats a good lesson on how to view real life performance too. A lot of underperforming is likely due to luck rather than some narrative. Its something we all know, but I was just surprised at the extent.
12/5/2011 2:24 PM (edited)