Besides that, everyone knows Oden was 38 when he was drafted. Just look at his health.

I don't think either A-Rod or Pujols will break the HR record.  Since A-Rod got his ring in 2009, he hasn't been much of a player. He can't seem to stay healthy and he seems more interested in leading the life of a celebrity.  His contract might be the worst in baseball history. 

ARod is only 133 back. It may be a big if at this point, but if he can put together even 2 seasons of 100% health, he'll be 2 20HR seasons shy of breaking it. That's not unfathomable.

So you're assuming that if he puts in 2 full, healthy seasons that he'll hit 93 home runs in those two seasons combined? I think that's a stretch and a half at this point.

Yeah, I don't think those kind of numbers are ever happening for A-Rod again.   All of a sudden, they hardly happen for anyone.  He's got 6 years left on his deal, if he transitions to primarily DH sooner rather than later (which I am assuming will be necessary to keep him healthy enough), I think he does it, but I don't think he has much margin for error anymore.

He does get to play in new Yankee Stadium though, so I think he's still capable of hitting 30 in a couple of season. I watched a Daniel Tosh special this weekend on Comedy Central and he had a great zinger about new Yankee Stadium being a "joke". I wish I could remember the whole part of the bit, cuz it was HILARIOUS.

I think ARod is still more than capable of 40-45 HR over a full, healthy season

If you use last season as the standard but project him out to 550 PA(which is 128 games and he's only failed to reach that twice), he's still hitting 20 homers per season.   That leaves him 13 short.    I think those numbers are really conservative.    A-Roid is as vain as they come.  He's not going to fall 13 short.

And if they move him to DH at some point to protect his body a bit more, he'll be able to maintain some solid power.

Posted by Jtpsops on 1/30/2012 2:40:00 PM (view original):
I think ARod is still more than capable of 40-45 HR over a full, healthy season

Only two guys in MLB hit 40+ last season.   Even if you assume he can suddenly start putting together 700 PA seasons again, which I find unlikely,  that still only projects to 35-36/season for his last two mostly healthy seasons.    And he's only aged since then.

I dunno AlCheez, I think A-Rod has more left than you think.  I doubt he'll ever hit 45 homers again, but multiple seasons with 35-40 wouldn't surprise me at all.  He's not going to steal a lot more bases, but he can still pop it.  I think we'll find that last year is an aberration, not a new standard.  He only needs to average 23 taters per year over the remainder of his contract to make it.  I think he'll still be able to get there easily in the last year or two of the contract and do much better the next few years.  I actually still think he can afford one or two semi-significant injuries and still make it.  Pujols could go either way, but he's been so consistent I'd hesitate to bet very much against him...

I'm not using last season as the standard, I'm using the 3 before that.  He hasn't hit more than 35 since 2007.  Even if you go back and extrapolate his HR/PA rate in any of those years and give him 700 PA, he just barely gets to/past 40 one of those years, and that was '08.  And he's going to be 37, so it's hard to expect him to noticeably reverse that.   I can definitely see him putting up a number of 30 HR, especially if he transitions to a more permanent DH role in that not too distant future, but between durability concerns and diminished performance, I think high 30s-40 is unlikely.  

Just my opinion, and like I said, I still think he gets there - I just thought it used be a given barring a career-ending type injury and now I can see realistic scenarios where he doesn't.

I just don't think the purse-carrying shirtless park-tanner has got 5 seasons of 27 homers left in him. In fact, I don't really think he's got another 30+ homer season left in him, let alone a 40+. As I said before, in my opinion the only thing that could help him and make me eat my words is playing half his games in new Yankee. I think he'll end up passing Ruth, but short of Aaron and the Asterisk, maybe somewhere around the 725 mark.

When roiders hit the wall, they hit the wall hard. It all breaks down at once. A-Roid could be the exception, but I wouldn't bet on it. He won't even make 700. I know its only been 5 years but Bonds' stats are like science fiction stuff already...232 walks...over .600 obp...crazy ...

It's good you mentioned all the walks.   A-Roid won't get them.   Too many hitters in the line-up.   He'll see pitches to hit.    Also, I wouldn't consider last season "a wall".    He was injured.   It could be a McGwire-like injury "bug" or it could be a single season injury.   We'll see.