All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > 2014 Orioles Thread (96-66): Packing up
4/10/2014 6:42 PM
Actually, forget 1 standard deviation. The league average BABIP for qualified pitchers since 2000 (the first year of Buehrle's career) is .291. Exactly the same as Buehrle.
4/10/2014 7:00 PM
Also, ironically, Randy Johnson's career BABIP allowed is exactly the same as Buehrle's: .291.
4/10/2014 7:26 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 4/10/2014 6:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/10/2014 6:15:00 PM (view original):
Ok, I overestimated it by a little bit.  Buehrle gets about 6 more wins on BBR, Johnson gets about 7 more on Fangraphs.  Those are still substantial differences, and they are basically produced exclusively by the errors involved in FIP calculation.

Incidentally, in 11 of the 14 consecutive seasons in which Buehrle has thrown 200+ innings, his FIP is worse than his ERA.  That shows me pretty comfortably that my natural instinct - this is a guy who can consistently produce a BABIP below league average, and in particular a SLGOBIP below league average - is probably right.
Or...errors in the bWAR guesses?

Why assume that bWAR is right and fWAR is wrong?
Well, there is the fact that their WAR/inning based on their bWAR are much closer to the historical average for guys with similar career ERA+.
4/10/2014 7:34 PM
So how do you explain the fact that Buehrle is better than his FIP virtually every year?
4/10/2014 9:51 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/10/2014 7:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 4/10/2014 6:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/10/2014 6:15:00 PM (view original):
Ok, I overestimated it by a little bit.  Buehrle gets about 6 more wins on BBR, Johnson gets about 7 more on Fangraphs.  Those are still substantial differences, and they are basically produced exclusively by the errors involved in FIP calculation.

Incidentally, in 11 of the 14 consecutive seasons in which Buehrle has thrown 200+ innings, his FIP is worse than his ERA.  That shows me pretty comfortably that my natural instinct - this is a guy who can consistently produce a BABIP below league average, and in particular a SLGOBIP below league average - is probably right.
Or...errors in the bWAR guesses?

Why assume that bWAR is right and fWAR is wrong?
Well, there is the fact that their WAR/inning based on their bWAR are much closer to the historical average for guys with similar career ERA+.
That's retarded bullshit. You're talking about a total difference of 6 or 7 WAR over 15 and 20 year careers. Their WAR per inning is essentially the same regardless of the version you use.
4/11/2014 1:21 AM
If you consider .017 and .019 the same, fine.  But it's over 10% different, which to the casual observer seems like a meaningful margin over nearly 3000 innings (for Buehrle).
4/11/2014 1:30 AM
Incidentally, Buehrle's career ERA+ is the same as Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, and John Lester, among others.  Obviously something he's doing outside of the 3 true outcomes matters, because he doesn't look that great based on those.  Which is why his FIP generally doesn't look all that good.
4/11/2014 7:54 AM
Ah one of these threads. Nice.
4/11/2014 7:56 AM
Hey, Tillman pitches tonight!
4/11/2014 11:29 AM (edited)
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/11/2014 1:22:00 AM (view original):
If you consider .017 and .019 the same, fine.  But it's over 10% different, which to the casual observer seems like a meaningful margin over nearly 3000 innings (for Buehrle).
I do consider .017 and .019 to be the same. That's a difference of two one thousandths of a point of WAR.

a) WAR is meant to be an approximation, regardless of the version you use.

b) Ignonring that the difference is negligible, the way you're using it is odd:
   
 "their WAR/inning based on their bWAR are much closer to the historical average for guys with similar career ERA+."

What is "much closer?" Closer than two one thousandths of a point?

And historical average of what? WAR? Is that bWAR or fWAR? I'm assuming you're using bWAR. Which makes this a weird circular argument. You're saying bWAR is more accurate than fWAR because bWAR lines up more closely with bWAR from other pitchers with similar ERA+.

No ****.

4/11/2014 12:43 PM
On either scale; for most pitchers the scores are more similar.  The aggregate  historical WAR/IP is the same for non-Buehrle pitchers with a career 118 ERA+.  And it's .019.
4/11/2014 12:57 PM
We don't even need stats to tell us that Tillman is better than Kazmir. Anyone with half a brain can see it.
4/11/2014 1:07 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 4/11/2014 12:58:00 PM (view original):
We don't even need stats to tell us that Tillman is better than Kazmir. Anyone with half a brain can see it.
What about everyone else with a whole brain?
4/11/2014 1:09 PM
When Kazmir is completely healthy, I'd probably rather him than Tillman.  The guy who doesn't walk many and strikes out a guy an inning? He's got better stuff than Tillman.  If you want to argue Tillman is consistently improving, then you'd know better than I would, I'll take your word for it.
4/11/2014 1:24 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/11/2014 12:43:00 PM (view original):
On either scale; for most pitchers the scores are more similar.  The aggregate  historical WAR/IP is the same for non-Buehrle pitchers with a career 118 ERA+.  And it's .019.
I think you made a mistake in your calculations. I took every pitcher with a career 118 ERA+ (excluding guys from the 1800's and early 1900's) and ran a bWAR and fWAR comparison.

The average bWAR per IP is 0.0166.
The average fWAR per IP is 0.0151.

Buehrle's bWAR per IP is 0.0191. His fWAR per IP is 0.0168.

His fangraphs WAR is "much closer" the the average WAR/IP of pitchers with the same ERA+ on both scales.
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All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > 2014 Orioles Thread (96-66): Packing up

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