# 2015 Orioles Thread - DEAD & BURIED Topic

Maybe I did.  The NERSC Filesystem is working again, so I don't have time to check it today.  How about you check who does a better job with Nolan?
4/11/2014 3:27 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/11/2014 3:27:00 PM (view original):
Maybe I did.  The NERSC Filesystem is working again, so I don't have time to check it today.  How about you check who does a better job with Nolan?
I don't have time for that and I don't buy into this method of evaluation. Both versions of WAR are meant to be approximations. Any glossary or explanation of WAR will tell you that small differences (5.6 vs. 5.8, etc.) should be ignored. Boiling it down to WAR/IP is asking the stat to be precise down to the thousandth of a point. That's not what it's meant for.
4/11/2014 4:18 PM
It's a 10+% difference over a large sample size.  If you can't see past the decimal position generated by dividing by a large number - which is, in fact, exactly what makes smaller margins meaningful - then I can't help you.  I assumed you had some basic level understanding of statistics.  If you don't understand baseball or statistics, why do you spend so much time trying to talk about baseball statistics?
4/11/2014 4:47 PM
Are you miket in disguise? So what if it's 10%? A 100% difference in WAR doesn't matter in some situations.

My second problem with this method is that your grouping is based on ERA+. bWAR is based on ERA. fWAR isn't. Without looking (and ignoring the fact that, for Buehrle, fWAR was "better"), it seems like pitchers gouped by adjusted ERA will be more similar when evaluated using the version of WAR that is also calculated using ERA.
4/11/2014 5:00 PM (edited)
That is a fair point.

Though it brings me back to my initial argument:  For pitchers like Nolan Ryan and Phil Niekro, with many thousands of career innings, generated with many different sets of defenders behind them, ERA should generally be a pretty good representation of how a guy pitched.  I accept that for one or two seasons, ERA can be misleading.  But over a long career, I certainly wouldn't trust a value generated based on FIP over a value generated based on ERA.
4/11/2014 5:22 PM
Obviously not MikeT, he's smart enough to have stopped talking to you.
4/11/2014 5:23 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/11/2014 5:22:00 PM (view original):
That is a fair point.

Though it brings me back to my initial argument:  For pitchers like Nolan Ryan and Phil Niekro, with many thousands of career innings, generated with many different sets of defenders behind them, ERA should generally be a pretty good representation of how a guy pitched.  I accept that for one or two seasons, ERA can be misleading.  But over a long career, I certainly wouldn't trust a value generated based on FIP over a value generated based on ERA.
I guess they are outliers. No stat is perfect or able to account for everything. Niekro and Ryan were able to maintain BABIPs well below league average. Ryan, I'm guessing, because of his velocity and lack of control. Niekro, I'm guessing, because of the knuckleball. Beyond that, I don't know.

For most pitchers, I think the Fangraphs method is better. Ignore what you can't measure. I certainly trust that more than BBR, which is just guessing when it attempts to separate pitching from defense. At least with Fangraphs I know where the hole is.

Also, if DIP stats only confirmed what we already knew using ERA, DIP stats wouldn't be needed.
4/11/2014 6:39 PM
Happen to catch Tillman tonight, BL? Tell me he's not an ace after that start. Too bad Schoop crapped the bed.

21 IP now for Tillman over 3 starts, 2 ER. He's locked in.

4/11/2014 9:42 PM
I bet you think the Marlins will win it all.....
4/11/2014 9:44 PM
Good one
4/11/2014 11:59 PM
Learned from the best.
4/12/2014 10:00 AM
Posted by Jtpsops on 4/11/2014 9:42:00 PM (view original):
Happen to catch Tillman tonight, BL? Tell me he's not an ace after that start. Too bad Schoop crapped the bed.

21 IP now for Tillman over 3 starts, 2 ER. He's locked in.

I didn't see it, just his line on my fantasy team. I have nothing against him, I just don't see his 0.84 era continuing for much longer.
4/12/2014 12:01 PM
Well duh...

It could be Kershaw or Verlander and you wouldn't expect them to be able to maintain that number.
4/12/2014 12:31 PM
True.
4/12/2014 1:29 PM
I said above I expect 3.3-3.4.  Which would likely make him the #1 starter in Toronto, quite possibly in New York.  Probably #2 or #3 in Boston, depending on how Buchholz happens to pitch this season.  Still maybe as low as #4 in Tampa.  Those guys have some arms.
4/12/2014 8:35 PM
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2015 Orioles Thread - DEAD & BURIED Topic