2015 Orioles Thread - DEAD & BURIED Topic

burnsy483
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/5/2014 10:59:00 PM (view original):
Just doesn't make any damn sense...

I'm not complaining.  I'm just saying, that series really didn't look good going in.  Certainly didn't look like it would be a sweep for the O's.  At this point I'd take Detroit's lineup over Baltimore's, and I'd take their starter in every game of the series.  The only advantage the O's should have had was in the bullpen.

That advantage was huge; the entire difference in game 2.  But seriously...

In the playoffs, nothing surprises me. That's all. Nobody had Orioles-Royals.
10/7/2014 3:44 PM
MikeT23
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Good effort.    Although, to be fair, it was more than I intended to put in.
10/7/2014 3:45 PM
burnsy483
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I can't even find ALCS series odds.  As in, "Orioles in 5" etc
10/7/2014 3:47 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by burnsy483 on 10/7/2014 3:47:00 PM (view original):
I can't even find ALCS series odds.  As in, "Orioles in 5" etc
I don't know if "in 5" or "to sweep" is a betting option. At least not online. Everything is team A or B, money line.
10/7/2014 4:01 PM
burnsy483
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I have a friend who does a shitton of gambling.  He's the guy who bets "will a run be scored in the 1st inning." The website he has has the Orioles at 10 to 1 to sweep, and the Royals at 15 to 1. 

If the Orioles are 55% to win each game:

Orioles: 55% X 55% X 55% X 55% = 9.15%, or 11 to 1.

Royals: 45% X ... - 4.1%, or 24 to 1.
10/7/2014 4:58 PM
dahsdebater
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Posted by bad_luck on 10/7/2014 3:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 3:28:00 PM (view original):
I'd say the chance of a Baltimore sweep was less than the league average.    I don't think it was crazy impossible but I bet Vegas would have let you lay a lot of money on a Baltimore sweep and given you some pretty good odds.
A) Vegas doesn't care what the actual odds are, only the perception and betting patterns.
B) Anytime you bet the 1 in a 1 out of 4 situation, you should be getting a pretty favorable payout.
That's not true at all for the scenario Mike painted - someone who wants to bet a lot of money on a fairly uncommon line.  Big sportsbooks are willing to  come up with betting lines for unusual bets for clients with enough money, but at that point you're actually betting against real odds.

It's not like some other whale's coming in and betting the same amount that the Orioles WON'T sweep.
10/7/2014 9:55 PM
dahsdebater
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Or in this case, about 5 of them.
10/7/2014 9:56 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/7/2014 9:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/7/2014 3:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 3:28:00 PM (view original):
I'd say the chance of a Baltimore sweep was less than the league average.    I don't think it was crazy impossible but I bet Vegas would have let you lay a lot of money on a Baltimore sweep and given you some pretty good odds.
A) Vegas doesn't care what the actual odds are, only the perception and betting patterns.
B) Anytime you bet the 1 in a 1 out of 4 situation, you should be getting a pretty favorable payout.
That's not true at all for the scenario Mike painted - someone who wants to bet a lot of money on a fairly uncommon line.  Big sportsbooks are willing to  come up with betting lines for unusual bets for clients with enough money, but at that point you're actually betting against real odds.

It's not like some other whale's coming in and betting the same amount that the Orioles WON'T sweep.
Whatever, I clearly wasn't imagining that mike was referring to burns as a Vegas whale.
10/7/2014 10:16 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by bad_luck on 10/7/2014 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 10/6/2014 10:12:00 PM (view original):
Go look up the average number of 3-game series sweeps in a full regular season and then tell me again that it isn't a surprising result.
Since 1998, there have been 2515 regular season three game series sweeps out of 9278 three game series. A little over 27% of the time. So no, not really surprising.
Nothing?
10/7/2014 10:17 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/7/2014 9:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/7/2014 3:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 3:28:00 PM (view original):
I'd say the chance of a Baltimore sweep was less than the league average.    I don't think it was crazy impossible but I bet Vegas would have let you lay a lot of money on a Baltimore sweep and given you some pretty good odds.
A) Vegas doesn't care what the actual odds are, only the perception and betting patterns.
B) Anytime you bet the 1 in a 1 out of 4 situation, you should be getting a pretty favorable payout.
That's not true at all for the scenario Mike painted - someone who wants to bet a lot of money on a fairly uncommon line.  Big sportsbooks are willing to  come up with betting lines for unusual bets for clients with enough money, but at that point you're actually betting against real odds.

It's not like some other whale's coming in and betting the same amount that the Orioles WON'T sweep.

And more confirmation that blocking BL was a good idea. 

10/7/2014 10:39 PM
dahsdebater
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This year it was 20%.  That's the number I know.  I'm surprised the long-term average is so much higher; conventional wisdom is that they tend to run below the mathematical expectation.
10/7/2014 10:40 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/7/2014 10:40:00 PM (view original):
This year it was 20%.  That's the number I know.  I'm surprised the long-term average is so much higher; conventional wisdom is that they tend to run below the mathematical expectation.
Are you sure about that 20%? I saw a 20% number but it was from April 2014, before most of the season had been played.
10/7/2014 11:01 PM
dahsdebater
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I'm pretty sure, but even so, it's irrelevant relative to your sample size.  There are just more sweeps than I thought.
10/7/2014 11:47 PM
05nomar05
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Great 4.1 innings by Tillman.
10/11/2014 7:09 AM
Jtpsops
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Ya. His worst start in his last 23. What a horrible pitcher.
10/11/2014 12:17 PM
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