I will say that I think Casey would have had a hard time winning. At the 4-4 split, he had an idol and knowledge of who the other team was voting for. He hands that to sjurat and then he is guaranteed the Final Four with a strong chance of making the final 3 even without immunity.
I think both sj and tsut wanted him in their final three.
So, basically, he chose to go with an alliance of four and try and win the last two immunities, knowing they would vote him out.
It was a big move, but it was a bad move. It gained three potential enemies on the jury and in the process put himself in a worse position. I see no way he would have won.
That said, he isn't there. I never got betrayed by horvie, I did get hung out once or twice by ghutton, so I can vote for either, leaning toward horvie. Would have to see the speeches to figure it out, but there was no speech that csudak could've given that would have had me vote for him.