Posted by Iguana1 on 10/19/2012 6:27:00 PM (view original):
Posted by buddhagamer on 10/19/2012 5:30:00 PM (view original):he was a local recruit and a pulldown for both A and C+.
Posted by Iguana1 on 10/19/2012 5:03:00 PM (view original):I"d take a guess that two programs that far apart in prestige spending that amount of recruiting cash, the lower prestige school probably had to spend some $$$$ to pull down the recruit, thus not getting as much recruiting effort per dollar spent.
I think D2 isn't anywhere near D1, but I'd suggest that it's a significant enough amount that it can't be ignored.
I was in a A vs C+ (at equal distance) and the C+ spent about $19k (plus promises) to my $13k (no promises). Not really sure how the C+ spent the dollars, but the recruit signed with my A with a day and a half left in recruiting. So it really wasn't a tossup.
He dropped to my A after 10 scouting trips. Not sure how much more effort the C+ needed to invest to get on the consider list. I spent an additional 34 home visits after he was considering me..
i didnt see this when i asked my question, but it really supports my point. its very, very likely the C+ school spend thousands more on SVs to pull him down. and then what did he do? who the hell knows. on average, at best, coaches like this spend the efficiency of CVs - which is a HUGE disadvantage if you guys were under 200 miles and still a big one under 360, which you said minimally was the case. tons of coaches at that level waste money on extra SVs and calls/letters which means its quite possible he was spending even worse than all CVs. lets guess its 100 miles (sounds about right for 13k, 250 miles would be like 2.5k for svs and over 13K on the HVs alone), and he did spend decently for a coach in that position - all CVs - then in your HV usage, you got a whopping third advantage just right there. the 10K you spent there, you would gain over 3K on him. assume he spend 20SVs (very possibly could be more), then thats another couple K lost. right there alone you already have 5K of the 6K advantage and a LOT of situations like this will have the other coach 1) need to spend more to pull down and/or 2) spent money shittier, which basically means you can assume exactly nothing about the value of prestige from the example.
ive verified my values on d1 prestige about 3 times over, id bet a good 5 grand without thinking on prestige assuming i got a 5% range to pick (like, say, 70-75%). the reason ive done it so many times is, by and large, i disagree with just about every coach and every veteran in the game about the value of prestige, and even i am not cocky enough to not think i would usually be wrong when i disagree with, well, every single coach in the game. the fact that the community bought into the wildly absurd 2:1 value does greatly redeem my faith in myself and my prestige value, and at this point i really am virtually positive, ive studied the everlasting **** out of it. anyway, consequently, ive paid an incredible amount of attention to the breakdown of battles done by other veterans - and to be honest, of the 25 or so that have been on the forums, i have yet to see ONE SINGLE correct analysis of a battle. not to say, coming up with my prestige range. but, i mean the mathematically and theoretically correct computation of the possible values resulting from the data provided. people either have incomplete data (its more like 100 battles, i was excluding the ones with wildly incomplete data) to an extent that it is roughly impossible to infer everything, or they fail to take into account the possible ranges on each variable (for example, they will assume A to B prestige is 1 letter grade, which can result in a prestige value very very significantly off), or something like that. it just takes a mathematical rigor that people either dont know how to, or dont have the desire to (its just a game after all) apply. so, i would just urge everyone to be EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS in your evaluation. you need to make sure you are looking at ALL the data, considering the variance on ALL the variables, and computing the complete ranges. and, one should recognize that no single battle can conclusively state anything about anything. its all about grabbing the ranges. get enough battles, and those ranges start overlapping less and less, and viola, you get an answer. so for example, say in battle one, you go OK prestige must be between 30% and 80%. battle 2, you say, its got to be between 50% and 100%. battle 3, 10% and 70%. now, you pretty much can infer its got to be between 30% and 70%, which isnt bad. get to like 10 of these and you should be good.
or, you can just make this simple observation - knowing the real value of d1 prestige doesn't do you a heck of a lot of good. few potential battles actually reach their potential. usually its like a game of chicken and rarely does push come to shove. so if everyone THINKS prestige is 2:1, even though its wildly incorrect, and both coaches THINK the A prestige school will beat the B prestige, even though the B prestige school might actually win handily - well, the a+ school is probably going to push, the B prestige school is going to back down, and boom - it never mattered that the B prestige school would have won nor that both coaches calculated the battles totally wrong.
so knowing that, i end up in a lot of d1 battles where i am the lower school, and it sucks the other coaches dont know prestige, because they make me waste my money. i havent seen a coach beat a school with an extra ship, 20K extra bonus money, and a strong A+ to my B before - but i did, and was confident i would - and i won the player. but what the hell good did it do me? he left after 2 years and i was forced to take 3 walkons, not that i minded that part. although the next year, same situation except i had a B+ and the other school only had 1+ ship (still 20-30K bonus money), i did win another battle, and that time it didn't cost me, and i pulled in a fantastic class for a B+ in the heart of a dominant ACC area. so sometimes its good i guess but sometimes its just not. anyway, this concludes my drunken rant about prestige (my uncle has exploratory surgery today, hes got a brain tumor that doubled in size in the last month, and is virtually guaranteed not to live more than 6 months - so its a very, very drunken rant). anyway, long story short, perception is reality - especially in d1 recruiting - so you just have to keep that in mind when you consider the "real" value, because 9 times out of 10, the "real" value doesn't matter worth a damn because it doesnt come to battle. and then of course, yeah, that 1 out of 10, it matters. but even then, you dont often get what you should. so, i would just go on assuming whatever the hell the community assumes because it doesnt by you much anyway. unless of course you just have to know, if you have severe mental disorders like me (well, not that severe, combos of undiagnosed compulsion disorders and a very high probability of ADHD, but manageable if i take enough drugs on my bad nights). then i suggest you collect some battles, making sure as **** to get all the info, know every single variable, and then compute all the ranges. if anyone has a really good battle info and wants some assistance breaking it down, im happy to help (another night not now, not sure i could do math). just send me all the info and YOUR analysis and ill show you where you went wrong.
good luck to the OP in your quest to figure this out. or if ive diswaded you, then congratulations on avoiding a long and largely fruitless endevour.
10/19/2012 9:03 PM (edited)