I think one of the main things the logic is looking for (even more than post-season appearances) is a progression of fewer wins each season. Louisville went 11, 9, 7, 2. Cincinnati never had a 4-season string of decreases in losses. I got fired once by going 15, 14, 10, 9, 8 (my next season would have been an NT appearance) at Rutgers. The logic seems to treat that as a worse history than something like 6, 7, 2, 8, 4.