12/11/2012 4:24 PM
... would you consider my Rochester team to be a title contender going into the tournament?  As it is in the zone I'm just hoping for S16 - E8, but comparing my team to the teams I DO consider to be legitimate contenders, we stack up pretty nicely man for man.  Obviously the biggest weakness is in perimeter shooting, but even that is only a moderate weakness, with 3 guys at 70+ PER.  Unfortunately the team looks like a man team - I only have 1 subpar defender, and he barely gets any minutes in spite of being a senior; basically, I lack the offense-first studs I have occasionally been able to find and hide in the zone (typically at the 3, where they always get averaged with 2 other defenders).   I also have unnecessary depth for the system I run.  I may well have the best bench in D3 Knight, though I certainly haven't looked at every team.  Certainly my bench is quite good.  My first 3 off the bench - Wilcox, Krzeminski, and Hauenstein - are good enough to start for a S16 team if they happened to be accompanied by an elite shooter for the 1 or the 2 and a guy like Mitchell to play the 4.  Or a guy like Whitton for the 3, but he'd help most teams.
12/12/2012 2:06 AM (edited)
NO. I think S16 is reasonable though.

Your Defense is pretty good. Your Rebounding would be, presumably, better in the man D and it's pretty good right now in the Zone. Your Stamina is very good and I don't see you suffering any drop-off in man defense. (except maybe in long run and gun fights at fast tempo against good teams, maybe a little then, but not much).

The main thing I see is lack of offensive depth. And, secondarily, but related to that, I see a semi 1 dimensional team. You shoot 3's but not at an very efficient rate. Your most prolific 3 point shooter shoots roughly just under a third of his shots from 3, but makes just a bit over a third of those. not bad, but also not scary either. Very GOOD, in fact, for a PF, but also NOT what you are looking for in a guard position. If you played him as a PF or C, he would be an awesome weapon for spreading the floor on your opponents, but in doing so, you would be exposed in your biggest weakness...... an almost non existent backcourt 3 point threat.

The first time you see a team equal in talent, but superior in perimeter play who has the ability to EFFECTIVELY sag in on you, you'd likely be headed home. You have a very nice team and also a very good team. But one dimensional championship teams win because they are simply overwhelming in that single dimension, and that your team is not.

Switching to man2man will not hurt you with a team like you have, but running into an offensive juggernaut with comparable defensive skills will.

Edited for spelling and correct terminology. :)
12/12/2012 3:27 AM (edited)
At first glance, it doesn't scream NT title team to me.  Not saying you couldn't or wouldn't be able to win it all if that team ran M2M because I've seen teams that looked far less potent than yours win the whole shebang, but I think there are enough exploitable areas that would keep you from running the table.

Oh, and there is no such thing as having "unnecessary depth".  You can never have too much talent on your team.  Not in this game.

***Edit***   Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying your team is bad or terrible or anything like that, not by any stretch of the imagination.  In fact, I think you've assembled a very, very good team.  As I said, at first glance it didn't scream NT title team, but............the more I look at your squad, the better it looks and I would think that you'll be a VERY tough out in the tourney, if you get put out at all.  Best of luck, I know you're dying to get that first championship to get that 400 pound gorilla off your back.  You'll get one soon enough! 

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