2009-2013 Progressive Eliminator Draft Thoughts Topic

This league is my third eliminator league in the last year. My first league just ended and I finished 2nd in my division in the last year (fourth best record), and it looks like I will be eliminated in year 3 of the 5 year in the late 60’s eliminator. It starts with the draft and we all have different strategies in building our team. In my first two experiences I went pitching in the first three rounds. I draft 27th in the odd rounds and 2nd in the even rounds, meaning that there as 52 picks between my even round and odd round pick.
In this progressive, I changed my default draft strategy by taking a hitter in round 1. My feeling is that you cannot win the championship in rounds 1-6 but you can sure lose it. I didn’t think there were many reaches, but considered it too risky to grab someone that high who does not have a good 09. This means that I want to win early to have enough wins to make it through the lean years. Hopefully I will win enough to nab a good player in the dispersal draft and then be able to grab a player who can help in 11/12 in the rookie draft. Here are my thoughts as I drafted my team:
12/28/2012 9:42 AM
Round 1—Adrian Gonzalez (1B). Everything one wants in a pick, power/obs/ lowest year is $5.85). I had him ranked in the mid-teens and he just fell to me. My dream was that Troy Tulowitski would fall to me, but he was grabbed mid-round.
Round 2—Javier Vazquez (SP). Was the only 2009 ace left. Has a poor 2010, but rebounds in 2011 for an acceptable season. While there was certainly better value here, I worried that there would be no high quality let alone ace-level starters remaining. I was right as my choice in round three indicates.
Round 3—John Danks (SP). Could not pass up on his innings pitched (200/213/170). Best year is Vazquez’s poorest. Pinerio and Baker who were drafted next and next were my other two choices. I took Danks because innings are at a premium.
Round 4—Erick Aybar (SS) love the A/A and .300 in 09, his 11/12 are vg too. Considered Ausubel Cabrera with this pick as well. Would have taken Pineiro had he been there.
Round 5—Phil Hughes (SP). My first “future” oriented pick. My thoughts are that he gives value as a SP in 10/12 and is a decent reliever in 09. Wanted to take him on the flip side but my top choices of Polancio, Hudson, and Crawford had already been taken and I was at a Chanukah service and panicked. I feared that with there being several missed picks he would be gone before I picked in round 6.
12/28/2012 9:43 AM
Round 6—John Lackey (SP) I was not happy about having to take him, but he fills the “inning eater” role and after taking Hughes in round 5 determined that I needed to get starter-level innings in this spot. Chone Figgins was considered here.
Round 7—Chone Figgins (3B). I began to cross my fingers midday Monday and Figgins made it to me. There was no way I was going to pass on a $6.7 million 09 third baseman available in round 7. Granted his 10 is ho-hum as a second baseman and then he is a clear cut. But being able to grab a top 10 $ value in round 7 is way too much value to pass on.
Round 8—Jamie Moyer (SP)—Old man Moyer was picked because he is serviceable as a starter in 09 and gives 100/1.10WHIP in 10. I wanted to grab an OF but there are still several good ones on the board. But I do not think there would be any serviceable 09 starters remaining. Marlon Byrd was on my short list here.
Round 9—Marlon Byrd (OF)---Nearly took him in round 8 and was shocked to see him remain for another 52 picks, especially given some of the OF’s that went before him. This was an easy pick for me.
Round 10—Omar Infante (2B)—my second future-oriented pick as his 10-12 are starter quality. I think this was the most important pick of the draft for me because by the time round 11 comes back there will be very few decent choices remaining. I thought about Suzuki as a C but his numbers, other than AB’s, are not that good; Joe Nathan because I wanted an elite closer for 09 but he has no 10 and a limited 11. I think I can get a nearly as good closer later and one who gives me more in 10-11 as well. I thought about taking Huston Street but he, too, has a limited and not so elite 2011. My other consideration was Vernon Wells because of the AB’s and $5.9 in 2010 but he does not hit well enough. I also looked at other 2B’s but the best ones are 1 year players (may take later). I considered Jose Lopez as a 09 2B to flip to 3rd in 10 when Figgins is a 2B. My indecision reigned when I initially drafted Callaspo but upon arriving to work learned that he had been previously taken—no wonder he wasn’t on my draft board. I opted for Infante because I didn’t think he would last and with Figgins taking a major nose dive in 2010 I wanted to shore up the IF.
EVALUATION: As I think back, I probably should have gone pitching the first 4 rounds as starters flew off the board, even mediocre ones. Pitching reigns and thus far my staff is ho-hum. I picked 8 of 10 with this year in mind and think that I am picking a win now team. I need a closer, set up a, two outfielders, a DH, and a catcher. By round 16 these needs have to be taken care of or else I’ll be toast. There are still several OF/RP available and some limited AB DH types. Catching is thin and I may punt it away.
12/28/2012 9:44 AM
Round 11—Chris Perez (RP)—My first screw up as I thought that I could get Brian Roberts on the flip; I was wrong. Roberts was the last true elite player in 2009 on the board. I took Perez because he offers 4 good years and was the last of the 4 year relievers.
Round 12—Scott Podsednik OF—I like his two year potential and felt that he offered the best combination of speed/hitting/fielding remaining for 2 years. He will also be a 5th OF in 2012 as he has no 2011. I considered taking a 2B and Mark Ellis would have been my choice. But I felt that it was too reactionary after missing out on Roberts.
Round 13—Trevor Hoffman (RP)--- Hoffman was the last elite 2009 closer remaining. I am committed to getting out of the gate fast and thus the pick was an easy one for me. Belisario was also considered; he went next in the draft.
Round 14—Russell Branyan (DH)--- I opted for Branyan because of his 31 home runs and .520 slugging in 2009, and he is the last elite power threat on the board. Playing in the HHH Metrodome led me to choosing him over Nick Johnson who would have been the choice had the stadium been Target field. I considered Ryan Doumit as a catcher, Gerald Parra for the outfield, and Jose Lopez at 2B/3B.
Round 15—Hong-Chih Kuo (rp)---very limited in 2009 but this pick is for 2010 as his 60/.78 WHIP is one of the best years ever, and certainly the best season left on the board. I would have taken Scott Downs but he was taken 17 minutes prior to my pick.
12/28/2012 9:46 AM
Round 16—Ramon Hernandez C)---There were several directions that I could go here. Gerado Parra as my 3rd OF, Alex Avila as my third string C in 09 with a huge 11 coming up, Kaz Matsui as my starting 2B, or Ryan Roberts as my 2B and then 3B in 2011. I decided to take a catcher here so that I’m not scrambling and potentially picking 4 catchers in order to have enough at bats. Hernandez will get about 350 ab’s and has a good obp and defense, especially his arm. I just re-read my analysis following my first ten picks stating that I needed to fill all of my holes or be toast. I retract that statement. I still need a starting outfielder and a starting 2B. I can likely obtain 2 $2 million outfielders to take care of this issue and grab a mediocre 2B later on. I am sitting at 1000 IP and there are still several very good relievers out there; I need 300 AB at catcher and there are still decent back-ups there. Through 16 rounds I only have one player who will be cut next season (Trevor Hoffman).
Round 17—Kazuo Matsui (2B)---This was a very easy choice, I needed a 2B and here is a $4 million A/A- fielding player, who can hit as well as has speed. I may hit him 9th to limit his per game/ab bat as Infante may need to play more OF than I would like. He is my second 1 year player drafted, but in round 17 it is certainly worth the risk.
Round 18—Michael Brantley (OF)—I had no clue who I would pick until I clicked the button. It may hurt in 2009, but I just could not ignore his 11 and a break-out season in 12. He has improved 4 straight years and am hoping that he puts even better numbers in 13. I like him because he will start in 11 when Podnednik fades. He ensures that I have at least two decent OF through 11 and one for 12. I considered Milton Bradley/Mark DeRosa to be my starting OF in 09 but did not want to take two 1 year players back-to-back. I also considered taking a meatball 150/1.52 WHIP type to get close to 1200 innings as well as taking a 1.20’s WHIP reliever who could get me a few seasons. There are still several 1.10’s remaining but the best are one year guys. In the end, Brantley is a calculated risk, especially since I still need 200 IP, a 3rd/4th OF, and a 300 AB catcher.
Round 19-- Jason Bulger rp--- Gives me 66 decent innings.
Round 20-- Milton Bradley OF-- Will be my starting right fielder and give me 475 at bats with a fairly impressive .387 obp.
---I am extremely happy that I was able to fill out my starting lineup with players who are decent and will play 75% of the time. My pitching also took shape in these rounds as well and I was able to grab several relievers. My needs remain to grab pitching, 300 at bats in catching, and another decent bat.
12/28/2012 9:48 AM
I hope others are willing to share their thoughts on their draft strategy, etc.  I, for one, enjoy this format, and wonder how others view their draft. 
12/28/2012 1:31 PM
Enjoyed reading your analysis of your draft so far. I really enjoy this elimination format as progressives go. I've tried drafting hitters 1st ( had W Mays in a 60's format , won yr 3 & got Koufax with my contraction pick; & in the final year , Mays hit 70 hrs, Koufax won 30, my team won 115 games but finished 2nd in my division ) but pitching is such a premium that if you draft a hitter early, your at the 2nd & 3rd tier pitching levels when back around to your 2nd pick. My current team is similar to yours in that I'll retain 18 of my 1st 20 picks into next year. Missed out on Matt Garza as I thought I could get him with an early rd 3 but calhoup has taken more than one of my players in this draft. This is my 5th or 6th elimination league but I'm not sure if one strategy fits all since different era's deliver different results.
12/28/2012 2:49 PM
I used my usual Progressive Draft mode. Tried to get the best long term Starting Pitching first & ignored Season 1 talent in hopes of a big push Season 2 onwards... It may cost me in this League format though if I fall into the bottom 4, which looks more & more probable, lol.  At least I've got a AAA team ready for the pickens... 

(1)  Cole Hammels- P (# 11 overall)  mediocre 2009 but solid 2010 & beyond.  (just missed out on David Price)
(2)  Tim Hudson- P- only 40 innings in 2009 which will hurt- but again, good 2010 & beyond. 
(3)  Ricky Romero- P  mediocre 2009 but good in 2010 & 2011- crappy 2012, but hoping for an improved 2013 (if we make it, lol)
(4)  Carlos Gonzalez- OF  300 good PA's in 2009 & a stud hitter the rest of the way... seemed like too high a ceiling to pass on
(5)  Brian McCann- C   One of the best offensive catchers 2009-2011... crappy 2012 but should rebound 2013.
(6)  Kevin Millwood- P  With 2009 pitchers going fast... wanted to snag a solid starter before they were gone...
(7)  Nelson Cruz- OF  Solid OF'er through 2013 hopefully... has an A- range to play CF in 2009
(8)  Rickie Weeks- 2B  Only 160 PA's in 2009... but has great OBP & HR/SLG in 2010 & 2011...crap 2012 but hopefully a good 2013
(9)  Grant Balfour- RP  Crap 2009 (seems to be a theme, huh, lol?) but very good 2010-2012
(10)  Michael Morse- OF  Only 50 PA's in 2009 but very good when he plays in 2010-2012
(11)  Edwin Encarnacion- 3B  Crap in 2009 but gets better 2010-2011 & a monster 2012
(12)  Vlad Guerrero- DH  Just ok in 2009- will probably play DH/1B but a real nice 2010 if we make it... was between Vlad & Rasmus
(13)  Tim Stauffer -P  Just ok in 2009- very good bullpen arm in 2010 & solid starter in 2011
(14)  JJ Putz- P  Horrible 2009 but awesome with Balfour 2010-2012
(15)  John Maine- P  Good 80 SP innings in 2009.  Help us win some games please, lol !
(16)  Kyle McLellan- P  Sadly will probably be my "closer in 2009" good 4th bullpen arm in 2010 with Balfour, Putz, and Staufer
(17)  Josh Outman- P  Real Good 60 SP innings in 2009.  Help us win some games please, lol !
(18)  Mark DeRosa- 3B  2009- 500 PA's, .250 23 HR's
(19)  Gary Sheffield- OF  2009- 300 PA's, good OBP, HR, SLG... will platoon with Car-Go
(20)  Edgar Renteria- SS  2009- 500 PA's... .250...will hold down the fort.

Picks 21-28 -->  Desperately need more bullpen arms, some 2B PA's, and OF/1B PA's... then cross our fingers & pray, lol...
* IF we're on the bubble by 100 games or so- maybe can trade a guy like Encarnacion or Morse or Putz for some immediate help, lol...  If not...farewell & good luck, all- it's been a fun Draft- you all can enjoy picking my team clean of the 2010+ talent  :-)) 
12/29/2012 1:02 AM (edited)
Like mike and toddleduc, I"m a Progressive Eliminator veteran.  Can't say I've had great success but in spite of that (or maybe in part because of it) I wanted to try again.  Actually, I think it's a great format.  So here's my draft with notes so far:

1.  P Zack Greinke.  I considered a few players at premium positions here (Tulowitzki, Mauer. et al) but remembered my 2008-2012 rotation being "anchored" by Mike Pelfrey  and Brett Myers.  Ugh.  So I saw the 2009 Cy Young Award winner and grabbed him.  I know in other years he may be closer to a 2 than an ace, but he's got at least one great year in 2009 and I'm projecting a good 2013 for him based on his return to the NL and likely getting to pitch behind Kershaw in the Dodgers' rotation.

2.  Traded this pick to Tampa along with my 10th rounder and 12th rounder for Tampa's 3rd, 4th, and 8th round picks.  This is a gambit in that I lose out on a 2nd rounder but I'm going to try to make up for it in quantity.  The upside is I will be the first person to pick 5 players and the way the draft is setup, I will pick my 10th player before all but one NL team gets its 8th.  By the way, this pick ended up being 3B Evan Longoria.  Time will tell if this trade works.

3a.  P Bronson Arroyo.  Going to be about .500 every year with 200 or so innings with an ERA under 4.  Got questioned in the forum a little bit on this one but I think this is an important pick.  Judging by the board, quality starting pitching is going to be hard to come by later in the draft.

3b.  SS Derek Jeter.  Playing in Pittsburgh, I know we're not going to hit a ton of home runs.  I get good offense (especially OBP) and he'll field anything at him.  The list of shortstops who can give you 5 solid seasons from 2009-2013 is very short and he's on it.  
4a.  1B Billy Butler.  Maybe a bit early for a 1B, but I saw Teixeira go the pick before and wanted to make sure to get this guy.  He's another high OBP guy who should hit a ton of doubles in PNC Park.  

4b.  OF Shin-Soo Choo.  Another high average and OBP guy and, along with Jeter, adds some speed to the lineup.  

5.  P Kevin Correia.  Had a good 2009 and a solid 2012.  We're getting to the point of the draft where quality innings in general are getting harder to come by.  I've got almost 420 solid innings at this point in addition to Greinke's 220 spectacular innings.  

6.  OF Andre Ethier.  Has dropped off in offense over the past four years, but had a really good 2009 (.272-.361-.508) and is my only player with over 100 RBI.  I've got my top 4 in the lineup with 2 righties and 2 lefties, all good hitters.  We're going to try to string hits together, and PNC is a good doubles park, so that's going to be the basis for my offense.

7. P Kenshin Kawakami.  I'm just trying to get good innings here.  Kawakami is a one year wonder but he gives me 156 innings with an ERA under 4.  Those guys are getting off the board fast.  Innings shouldn't be a problem at this point.  

8a.  3B Casey Blake.  Most of what's out there right now are one year players.  As much as I'd like to load up for 2009, I can only afford to have to replace so many players for 2010.  So although there may have been better options for 2009 at this spot, I grabbed Blake in part because he had a solid 2010.  I could replace him next year if I had an opportunity to grab a great 3B in the offseason but I don't need to do it.  He's solid offensively and in 2009 is great on defense, which will help with Jeter on the left side. 

8b.  P Francisco Liriano.  Not sure I was really able to completely leverage my quantity advantage with this pick but at some point I have to think about 2010.  Liriano is awful in 2009 but has a really good 2010.  So I've got Greinke. Arroyo, and Liriano as my top 3 in 2010.  

9.  OF Mike Cameron.  Another one year pick, but I need a center fielder (neither Choo nor Ethier is a viable option in center) and he'll hit 20-25 homers while playing good defense.  I've got a fairly deep lineup so far, as my top 6 are in place.  

10.  Traded (See above)

11.  C Miguel Olivo.  Not much left in the way of catchers, so I grab Olivo knowing he's got 2 more solid seasons (again, if a Mauer comes along in the elimination draft I could take him)  and will add some pop and a decent arm.  On the downside I can now see we're going to strike out a fair share.

12.  Traded (See above)

13.  P Armando Galarraga.  Had buyer's remorse almost immediately after this one, but he provides innings (not good ones) for two seasons.  Probably could have done better with this one but I'm almost at 1200 innings so I can just grab good relievers without really having to worry too much about quantity of innings.

14.  P Ryan Franklin.  And the bullpen work begins, several rounds after a lot of teams.  He'll be the closer and really good in 2009 and 2010.  

15.  2B Craig Counsell.  The starting lineup is complete.  Decent average, going to play decent defense for 2009.  Not bad for the 15th rounder.

16.  P Angel Guzman.  Another one and done, but he's really good over 60 innings this year, with a OBA under .200 and a WHIP of 1.04.

17.  P Pedro Feliciano.  Solid lefty for 2009 and 2010 (although in 2010 he lost the plate at times). 

18.  IF Luis Valbuena.  Counsell's low number of ABs (404) scares me a little bit, so I got Valbuena as the utility infielder.  He can play short and third as well and he's good defensively.  He won't hit much, but he'll keep the infield fresh and hopefully I won't need him a whole lot. 

19.  P Bob Howry.  63 2/3 innings in his last usable year with a 1.15 WHIP.  

20.  P Santiago Casilla.  This is a pick for the future.  His 2009 is awful but his ERA and WHIP sparkle in 2010-2012.  

So where do we stand with 8 rounds to go?  I think we'll be dangerous in 2009 at the very least, as I think we're a deep team.  We'll need a bench and maybe some future picks in the final 8 rounds. 
12/30/2012 12:20 AM
Long time listener, first time caller...first time in an eliminator, so I have no idea what I'm doing here, but I basically do whatever OG tells me to do, so here I am...

To begin with, being near the end of the draft, I definitely was in favor of reverse order for drafting stadiums.  I took Turner Field because I'm a Braves fan, and since it plays, marginally, as a pitcher's park, I hoped it would negate some of, what I expect to be, the effects of a big-time hitters' league...

Round 1:  Joe Mauer--First catcher off the board, I wasn't in love with any of the pitchers available at this point in the draft.  I had hoped Josh Johnson would fall to me, but it was not to be, so I took the best player at a scarce position...

Round 2:  Ubaldo Jiminez--Best pitcher left who was good in 2009 and had at least one other good season, in this case, 2010.  At this point, it's clear I'm playing for 2009 and 2010, and I let that dictate the remainder of my draft.  I'm hoping to pluck some contraction picks to make me competitive in the remaining seasons...

Round 3:  Hanley Ramirez--Great in 2009, good in 2010, and young enough that he could rebound in 2013, and he plays at a relatively scarce position.

Round 4:  JA Happ--Wasn't even sure what a JA Happ was before this draft, but he was the best guy left among SPs in 2009, but he's useless after that....

Round 5:  Carl Crawford--Just looking for best player, period, in 2009...had looked at Justin Upton, but mw100 took him shortly after this pick...

Round 6:  Jayson Werth--Since Upton was gone, I took another guy with a great 2009 and 2010 in Werth...I was holding off at 3B and 2B at this point and going for best impact guys because there seemed to be depth at 2B and 3B (or, maybe it was just that there wasn't much difference among the guys remaining)...

Round 7:  Rich Harden--I've always loved his low OAV, and he gave me enough innings that I could use him in a 5 man rotation...I definitely needed innings at this point with the way that pitchers were flying off the board...

Round 8:  Kendry Morales--Morales or Morneau, that was my dilemma...I sort of figured both wouldn't make it back, and I really liked the fact that Morales was a SH, so I went with him...this is also the point in the draft where I began to realize that yankeejoe5 would be stealing my players throughout the rest of the draft...he had already taken some guys I was eyeing (Ohlendorf), and he took Lind after my pick, who was another guy who I hoped would sneak back owing to his DH status...

Round 9:  Scott Kazmir--not in love with this pick, but I knew I needed innings to compete in 2009...and he didn't suck...this is also the point at which I really realize that OG's lineup in 2009 is going to s-t-r-u-g-g-l-e...sure hope he makes it to 2010...

Round 10:  Brendan Morrow--my first pick with only an eye to the future...he's useful in the 'pen this season, so it's not a total waste...

Round 11:  Derek Holland--my second pick with an eye primarily to the future...he'll serve as a crappy 5th starter, but has some useful seasons after that.  Also the point in the draft where I realize that bagearse will also be screwing me at the opposite end of the draft...after taking Morneau earlier, he's taken Kubel as well...this is also the second time in the draft where I realize that our commish may not be with us in Season 2 based on his 2009 lineup...

Round 12:  Casey McGehee--qualifies at 2B and 3B, partial season, but good in 2010, I was trying to decide between him and one of the few .500 slugging full-time hitters left in Brad Hawpe...guess who took him after this picke?  Yep...yankeejoe5...

Round 13:  Matt Diaz--I needed a Braves player...well, just because, and since yankeejoe5 just took Mike Lowell, who I had been eyeing, I went with the best partial season I could find...

Round 14:  Jose Lopez--Wasn't planning on taking him, but surprised he was still there, he rounds out my IF with some decent power...not very useful after this season...OG:  Ian Snell...really?

Round 15:  Sean White--not only is he a master snow boarder, but he has a pretty solid relief season.  I had puposely been avoiding relievers up to this point, but decided I couldn't wait much longer.  Very happy to get him here...

Round 16:  Delmon Young--decent as a DH for me in 2009, he had one of the best 2010 seasons left of available players...I knew, if I had any hope of lasting 'til 2013, I needed to do well in both 2009 AND 2010, and this guy was a must...

Round 17:  Andres Torres--good partial season in 2009, I took this guy for his 2010 season...

Round 18:  Daric Barton--See: Torres, Andres...

Round 19:  Brian Matusz--it dawned on me that I needed innings in 2010, and I was surprised to find him here...always projected to be the next great Orioles pitcher, he has a chance to produce a solid 2013...

Round 20:  Joe Thatcher--just looking for solid relief help in 2009, this guy has a great K rate...

Round 21:  
12/31/2012 7:51 PM (edited)
I am also a first time eliminator drafter.  I started with a strategy of drafting players with the highest career earnings over this 4 year period.  I did not care if their best years were year 1, 2, 3, or 4 = but rated all players in the first few rounds simply by a straight career earnings.  Then at the point at which it was my turn to draft I selected the player within that top 10 career earnings that I felt best fit my needs.

Since I have Yankee Stadium - I wanted to ensure I had some power in the lineup, but I also love defense.  My biggest problem being new to this structure was trying to stay fluid in my pick options and react to who was disappearing on the board.

Round 1 - C.C. Sabathia (SP) - highest career earnings pitcher on the board when I made my selection

Round 2 - Curtis Granderson (OF) - top career earnings player, with power and defense

Round 3 - Aaron Hill (2B) - Because Hill has two big earnings years 2009 and 2012, has power both years, and good defense. He popped to the top of the list.  I think this pick may haunt me at some point, because pitching was flying off the board.  But I had committed to a strategy.

Round 4 - Ricky Nolasco (SP) - With Pitching still flying off the shelf, none of the pitchers were even in the top 25 at career earnings left at this point, and knowing that you gotta have  enough innings or you are dead, I took the highest earnings pitcher left.  This is not a good choice for Yankee stadium due to his HR/9, but by not taking a pitcher here, I knew I was in deep trouble.  

At this point I realize my draft strategy needed to change. I decided to re-order the entire population with a weighted order.  I gave 2009 more weight, 2010 slightly less, 2011, less, and 2012 was discounted.  Figured if I didn't ensure that I was taking guys who had better early years, I was in trouble.  With pitching continuing to be  at a premium I also knew I was going to take another starter.

Round 5 - Carlos Zambrano (SP) - fit the bill.  170 IP in 2009, less each year afterwards, with a low HR/9 ratio.  Here is where I realized I will be looking to subsequent drafts to continue after the first season, if I am going to last.

Round 6 - Adam LaRoche (1B) - LaRoche looks a lot like Aaron Hill.  I have drafting a firstbaseman so early, but I was convinced that the pitching selections would soon end, and that I wanted to have power and defense.  LaRoche was near the bottom of the top 10 players based on my look but he most closely fit my team strategy.

Round 7 - Russell Martin (C) - I watched a few catchers that I was interested be taken earlier in the draft and was seeing less and less value on the board here.  I decided to go against my strategy and take a catcher.  Martin rated the highest remaining catcher for weighted career earnings.  Again I pick I probably am going to regret.

Round 8 - Chris B. Young (OF) - A proxy pick.  I laid out four players in rank order based on the weighted earnings, who had good defense and some power.  His 2010 and 2011 will be compliment the fall off nicely from Hill and LaRoche.

Round 9 - Brendan Harris (SS) - With the quality shortstops gone, I tried to find someone with top defense and sufficient at bats.  this gives me in season one an infield of 1B - A+/A, 2B A/A- and Shortstop A/A+.  I know defense does not win in WIS, but with Yankee stadium being a +1 for singles, a minus on doubles and triples, and huge pluses for HR, I figure the solid defense should make playing against me at home tough.  Everybody is going to have to play Earl Weaver baseball.

Round 10 - Heath Bell (RP) - with 3 starting pitchers and 6 player in my starting lineup, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 2 OF, I thought I should focus on the bullpen.  If we can get to the late innings with a lead, we need someone to close it out.  Bell does not have a good 2012, but his 2009-2011 hopefully will help get me there.

1/1/2013 1:08 PM (edited)
dbjerke draft continued

Round 11 - Brandon Inge (3B) - my first pick solely focused on 2009. Inge rounds out the infield and is my first player who is not A/A in the field.  HIs 25 HR and solid defense fit will with Yankee stadium.  Although that .230 avg really bothers me.  With other long term 3B gone. I wanted to get his power and defense for 2009.

Round 12 - Jonathan Broxton (RP) - realizing the remaining starting pitching was awful, and that I now had 7 offensive players selected, I went for my second relief pitcher.  Here is hoping my starters and defense can keep the team close to the late innings, and then we have good bullpen work and wait for the late inning walk off homerun.

Round 13 - Jeremy Sowers (SP) - Knowing I still needed about 70 starts, I began to look for who was the "best of the remainder"  Sowers has 123 IP and 22 starts.  This pick more than any other in the draft, showed me the flaws in my initial approach.  When selecting Sowers, I realized the weaknesses my team has, and probably can't over come.

Round 14 - Aaron Laffey (SP) - Laffey looks almost exactly like Sowers, he has 122 innings and 19 starts.  Hopefully these two guys can give us 40 plus starts, and combined with Sabathia, Nolasco and Zambrano, give me five starters.  Although we are still about 30 starts short,  We have a five man rotation in place.

Round 15 - Aaron Rowand (OF) - Playing our first season in the NL, Rowand gives us our 8th starting player.  With five starters in the bullpen and two relief pitchers the team is starting to take shape.  Rowand is our weakest defensive player on the team at a B+/B, but gives us another solid 500 at bats in the OF.  He is also the third Aaron on the team, unfortunately none of them have Aaron as their last name, or Hank as their first name.

Round 16 - James McDonald (RP) - McDonald was my first and to only future pick.  Hopefully we will still be around in 2012 to take advantage of it.

Round 17 - Alex Cora (SS) - Brendan Ryan only has 429 PA in 2009.  This means I need another 300 SS at bats.  Cora has good defense, and the required number of at bats needed. 

Round 18 - Manny Parra (SP) - Parra has 27 starts and 140 innings pitched.  He along with Sower and Laffey are expected to account for over 400 IP and 70 starts.

Round 19 - Jack Cust (OF) - Cust is really a DH, but since I will be an NL team in season 1, I am not in need of a DH.  I did need about 400 more OF at bats though.  And so I looked for someone who could give me the at bats and who fit well with Yankee Stadium.  Custs 25 HR looked too appealing to pass up.

Round 20 - Miguel Batista (RP) - Batista is our fourth relief pitcher.  getting us to 1,250 innings pitched.  We know we will need a few hundred more innings, but I like his 2010 an his 2011 OAV and stats.  He should fill a nice niche for us.
1/1/2013 1:23 PM (edited)
dbjerke - draft continued -

The New York Yankee franchise has drafted solid defense at the starting positions and with 10 players selected has over 5,600 plate appearances.  In addition the have selected 10 pitchers and have their starters with in excess 1,000 innings pitched.  The bullpen has two solid closers vying for the job.

What to look for in the final rounds.

NY needs a backup catcher,  and more pitching, with 5 slots left and 3 extra players, they have plenty of chances to fill their needs.  Having 10 position players NY will undoubtedly take one or more additional position players in the final 8.

My biggest fear is that I will not win enough games in 2009 to carry me through the future years,  I am not concerned that I will be eliminated in year 1 and i was hoping that with enough wins in year 1, that I woud be safe in year 2 and I could focus on getting player for year 3 and 4.  Then after year 2 I could again draft for 3 and 4.

I figure the contraction draft and the immediate impact rookies are what I am betting on for year 3 and year 4. 

I love seeing everyones draft decisions and logic.  I hope you guys like reading my thoughts as much as I like writing it.

1/1/2013 2:30 PM (edited)
Some good stuff here guys. I haven't had time to read through it all yet, but I do find it really interesting to hear the rationale behind everyone's picks.

This is my fourth eliminator draft and I think I did a lot better in my first when I had no idea than any of the others haha.

Lost track a bit in this draft when I incorrectly guessed there'd be a bit of a run on OFs in the 3rd & 4th. The other thing that gets me into trouble is not being able to force myself to draft ordinary pitchers with high innings.

At the moment I think I'll be hopefully not too bad in 09 and would have some good pieces in 12 if I make it that far, but would struggle a lot in 10 and 11. So overall not that optimistic. Been interesting to try out drafting first. It maybe wasn't really worth trading up when there's not that much between the top 5 or 6 pitchers, but I mainly wanted the time slot anyway - would have had to proxy every second pick otherwise and have enough trouble picking one or two guys let alone five or six.
1/2/2013 6:12 AM
You're a funny, funny man, Russ, but it's my pitching, not my lineup that will keep me from advancing to 2010.  And guess who is first in line to be replacement commish if that happens....

You can get a sense of my strategy by reading todd's post above.  My guess is we will both be desperately be trying to trade for the same pitching by the All Star Break.  I chose this plan after taking Price and Joey Bats in Rounds 1 and 2.  I might have made a tactical mistake going hitter-hitter (Wright and V-Mart) in rounds 3 and 4 with all the pitching flying off the board but thought that both guys were great value there.

My pitching in 09 is a disaster (although I have worked my way up to 1070 IP) but has some great future seasons from Lohse, Harrison and Motte...if I get that far.  Also some good rookie pitching in the 2010 draft which will help...if I get that far.

Lineup has some solid pieces, esp. for an HR park, with V-Mart, Big Papi, Joey Bats, and Wright plus good future seasons from Kelly Johnson and Peralta.  Wouldn't hurt if all these guys stayed healthy in 2013 (and somebody in an extreme pitchers park signs Kyle Lohse).
1/2/2013 8:12 AM
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