I'm having my 1st really good year at this school and was wondering if/what I can expect my prestige to jump to.  I play tonight in a 50/50 game and if I win am likely to play a juggernaut team, so, I doubt i'll advance more than 1 round.  I've never really understood prestige at d2/d3 and it has always seemed screwy to me.  Are tournament runs taken into account or is it just RPI?  Thanks for the input.

57	therewas47	21-10	10-3	7-6	4-1	10-6	11	11	-	NT At-large Bid NT (Elite 8)
56	therewas47	19-13	10-3	5-8	4-2	10-6		20	A-	NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
55	therewas47	21-10	10-3	8-5	3-2	12-4		34	A-	NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
54	therewas47	23-10	8-5	9-4	6-1	11-5	15	23	A-	CT Champion NT (Sweet 16)
53	therewas47	21-10	9-4	9-4	3-2	11-5	18	3	A-	NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
52	therewas47	17-13	9-4	6-7	2-2	8-8		15	B	NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
51	therewas47	13-18	9-6	3-11	1-1	6-10		72	C	PI (3rd Round)
50	therewas47	5-22	3-10	2-11	0-1	4-12		139	C-
49	therewas47	12-15	6-7	6-7	0-1	4-12		109	C+

A boost to A is my guess.

RPI isn't considered. Only your record and tournament success is factored in.   WIS feels that the record is equally important to the tournament. So a team that was 28-2, SOS 350, 1st round loser, could have a better prestige than a Sweet 16 team that was 20-10, SOS 14.

Prestige at DII/DIII is 50% your current prestige and 50% your most recent season. Since your current prestige is an accumulation of prior seasons, the current season is worth at least 4X any other season.  That's why one good season can give you better prestige than a consistently winning program.

Posted by alblack56 on 12/30/2012 6:51:00 PM (view original):
RPI isn't considered. Only your record and tournament success is factored in.   WIS feels that the record is equally important to the tournament. So a team that was 28-2, SOS 350, 1st round loser, could have a better prestige than a Sweet 16 team that was 20-10, SOS 14.

Prestige at DII/DIII is 50% your current prestige and 50% your most recent season. Since your current prestige is an accumulation of prior seasons, the current season is worth at least 4X any other season.  That's why one good season can give you better prestige than a consistently winning program.

the conclusion in your second paragraph is a non sequitur. you are effectively assuming in that 50%, its evenly split between at least 4 seasons - plus, im 90% sure that is not the case.

it is news to me, however, that RPI is not a factor. but im also not sure about that record being equally important to the tournament... what does that even mean? sounds like one of those general statements CS throws out that doesn't really make sense when you try to apply it. if i go 30-5 and lose in the NT championship, do i get 100 points for each? i mean its kind of a weird statement. at the high end, NT success blows away gaudy records, i think that is clear. but at the low end, maybe that is where its about equal?

From February until September, I had several discussions CS about prestige. Here are the highlights. They're quite insightful, even if they are lengthy.

Regarding regular season vs. post-season

ME: In your system, you have a team that's been RU twice in 4 years and made the Sweet 16 six consecutive times falling out of the top 40 in prestige after one bad season.

CS: I would disagree that only post-season results impact prestige. It's more fair to base it on the entire season results, with a little extra emphasis on the post-season. In DII/DIII, you will see much more movement and change from season-to-season because the ranges are much smaller.

  Generally, the regular season success and post-season success go hand in hand. But what if a team is ranked in the top 10 and gets upset in the first round of the NT? Compare that to a team that squeaked into the NT but won a couple of games by upset. Do you think the second team has really earned a higher prestige?

ME:  It depends on the school. If it were Kansas, with a strong NT history, it wouldn't make much difference in their prestige if they had one bad NT. But, if it were Murray State, losing in the first round after a spectacular regular season and a top 10 ranking, fans would say, "Yep, I knew they were overrated." Their prestige bump? Almost nothing. 

   VCU in 2011 is another example. They squeaked into the NT and made the Final Four. Yes, absolutely, their prestige bump is more than Murray State which won 23 games but lost in the 1st round. 

More of my discussion with CS:

Regarding Illogical prestige ratings

ME: Examples
 My team, Drew, was 20-10, lost in the first round, and stayed at B prestige. Looking at my recent history, that's about right.

 Amherst was 28-2 and lost in the first round. They only played 4 teams in the top 150 and has an SOS of 341. In the last 7 seasons, they were 59-131 with no NT games in 26 seasons!

 Colbey-Sawyer was 25-6 and lost in the 2nd round. This is their 1st NT appearance in 51 years. 

Both Amherst and Colbey-Sawyer jumped from C to B based on one season. 
***

Another example:
 My Crum team, DII Drury, dropped from A+ to A. In the past 12 seasons, I've made the Sweet 16 nine times, been RU once, and won a NT.

I have the same prestige as Mt. Olive, which has won 4 NT games in the same 12 years, and is coming off back-to-back 1st round losses. 
***

CS: We understand that the prestige system isn't perfect, but it works as it's currently designed, so we're no longer investigating specific situations.


(The last comment was in September and was the end of our discussion)

More of my previous discussion with CS

Regarding the value of the current season

CS:  The current season's success if combined with a baseline prestige (all DII schools are the same and all DIII schools are the same) to come up with the new prestige. That number is then averaged with the previous prestige. So, it's basically a 50/50 split of the new value and the previous value. 

ME: You've assigned 50% of the value to the current season. That leaves 50% to be split among the previous four seasons, an average of 12.5%.  The 50% you've assigned to the current season is 4X that figure!

CS: Where did I say it went back 4 seasons?

ME: That was just a mathematical example. Take the number of years and divide into 50%.  That's the average value of each year. If you go back 50 seasons, then the value of each season averages 1%. That inflates the value of the current season even more!
  It would be more logical if you dropped the value of the current season to 30%.

 There's no logic in seeing a C+ team, coming off 2 losing seasons, improve to A- by winning two NT games. It's ridiculous.

that seems like crap that a 26-4 (60RPI) team would be viewed better than a 22-8 (18 RPI) team.  

I'm confused.  So is the short answer that anyone who plays in a competitive conference will suffer because they will lose more often?

You'll go to an A therwas - short answer, you will suffer a bit in prestige in a competitive conference if you lose a bit, especially in the Heartland Crum (That's a meatgrinder fest) - but you'll get more $$$ and will be able to obtain top tiered talent that your prestige allows for in D2.  Plus, being in a competitive conf., you'll probably be able to move nicely through the NT and maintain a decent prestige.  Gulf South, Allen teams come to mind in that regard and I'm sure it comes to fruition a lot with Heartland Crum teams.  As Al said, previous seasons factor in a lot with the current seasons, but there is a lot of weight on the current season too.  Season 52, I was very surprised to have moved up to an A.  Season 53, I was very surprised to move up to an A+ with a 2nd round exit but had a 29-2 record.  Season 55 I was surprised to maintain an A+ as well as in season 57, but I can attribute the previous season to maintaining the prestige.  Just my last 10 seasons alone at Findlay can backup what Al has said and argued about, and shows previous seasons and current seasons weight.

60	hogstench	29-3	10-0	15-1	4-2	15-1	6	1	A+	Conf Champion NT At-large Bid NT (Elite 8)
59	hogstench	32-2	12-0	13-1	7-1	16-0	3	3	A+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (Final Four)
58	hogstench	28-4	10-1	14-1	4-2	14-2	11	16	A+	NT At-large Bid NT (Sweet 16)
57	hogstench	22-7	9-3	12-2	1-2	15-1		16	A+	Conf Champion NT At-large Bid NT (1st Round)
56	hogstench	30-5	10-1	12-3	8-1	13-3	2	4	A+	CT Champion NT (Championship Game)
55	hogstench	23-8	10-1	9-6	4-1	13-3		14	A+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (2nd Round)
54	hogstench	32-2	10-0	15-1	7-1	16-0	4	4	A+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (Final Four)
53	hogstench	29-2	9-1	16-0	4-1	15-1	12	9	A+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (2nd Round)
52	hogstench	26-5	9-2	14-1	3-2	16-0	16	12	A	Conf Champion NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
51	hogstench	17-14	2-9	11-4	4-1	8-8		108	A-	CT Champion NT (1st Round)

Not making the NT however is super killer, even if you make the PI - we figured Hillsdale would go down to an A with being PI champion, instead they dropped to an A-.

60	robinhood410	31-2	13-0	12-1	6-1	15-1	5	6	A+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (Elite 8)
59	robinhood410	22-12	11-4	7-7	4-1	11-5		41	A-	PI Champion
58	robinhood410	25-6	10-5	11-0	4-1	15-1	18	22	A+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (2nd Round)
57	robinhood410	25-5	12-1	11-2	2-2	13-3	9	14	A+	NT At-large Bid NT (Sweet 16)

My conclusion, just make it to the NT and win and you'll maintain the prestige you want, or wish to acquire :P

alblack - are those posts supposed to relate to the only record not rpi point you made, as well as the 50/50 implying the current season is 4x any other point? i do think its insightful, and interesting, but im still doubtful about those couple points.

Posted by coach_billyg on 1/1/2013 12:56:00 AM (view original):
alblack - are those posts supposed to relate to the only record not rpi point you made, as well as the 50/50 implying the current season is 4x any other point? i do think its insightful, and interesting, but im still doubtful about those couple points.

CS used the phrase 'current season success' and he mentioned the team record. But he didn't specifically include/exclude RPI so I don't know about that.

But the 50% and the  value of prior seasons is pretty clear-cut in my eyes. He said pestige is 50% current season and 50% previous prestige rating.  Since the previous prestige rating is based on former seasons, that remaining 50% is split among those seasons. The most current ones have more value, of course, but the last 4 seasons still average 12.5% each.

Posted by alblack56 on 1/1/2013 3:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by coach_billyg on 1/1/2013 12:56:00 AM (view original):
alblack - are those posts supposed to relate to the only record not rpi point you made, as well as the 50/50 implying the current season is 4x any other point? i do think its insightful, and interesting, but im still doubtful about those couple points.

CS used the phrase 'current season success' and he mentioned the team record. But he didn't specifically include/exclude RPI so I don't know about that.

But the 50% and the  value of prior seasons is pretty clear-cut in my eyes. He said pestige is 50% current season and 50% previous prestige rating.  Since the previous prestige rating is based on former seasons, that remaining 50% is split among those seasons. The most current ones have more value, of course, but the last 4 seasons still average 12.5% each.

what you said here is different than "the current season is worth at least 4X any other season", which you said above, and I think elsewhere too... what you are saying now is, the current seasons is worth at least 4X the average season over the last four seasons (which requires there to be at least 5 seasons taken into account for prestige, which may or may not be the case)

when you say the current ones have more value, of course, then that suggests we are on the same page. it could very easily be a weighting of the last 5 seasons, instead of 50%, 12.5%, 12.5%, 12.5%, 12.5%, its maybe 50%, 25% 12.5%, 7.5%, 5%. or 50% 20% 10% 10% 10%. who knows. but in any case, if the current ones have more value, then its necessarily false that "the current season is worth at least 4X any other season", assuming there are 5 seasons. even if its the last 70 seasons, the 2nd most recent season could be worth more than 12.5%, making it worth more than 1/4X the current season.

Regardless of how it's expressed, 50% value for one season is way too much.  We shouldn't have a team, coming off of 2 losing seasons, jump from C+ to A- by winning two NT games. 

Well ... if the current season's success is always averaged with the previous prestige, then it would be this for the frist 11 seasons in a new world:

s11
s10
s9
s8
s7
s6
s5
s4
s3
s2
s1

s11/2 + s10/4 + s9/8 + s8/16 + s7/32 + s6/64 + s5/128 + s4/256 + s3/512 + s2/1024 + s1/1024

or that is:

50%, 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.125%, 1.5625%, 0.78125%, 0.390625%, 0.195313%, 0.097656%

Because there is no previous season for the REAL first season in a world (since you just started it), a teams real first season and second season would be worth the same amount in brand new world ... but after Season 11 in that world, those two seasons would both be worth 1/1024. Since the youngest world now is Phelan at 55, the "Season 1" effect is over after "Season 11" and you can say that last 10 seasons in any world have this impact on prestige:

50%, 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.125%, 1.5625%, 0.78125%, 0.390625%, 0.195313%, 0.097656%

I do agree that 50% is too much, but is also easy to calculate ... it would just be:

average (season, season-1)

This would also mean that all seasons have an impact, but the impact of the last 10 seasons is 99.902344% and therefore everything older than 10 seasons can be ignored. The last 8 seasons would account for 99.609375% of the score, the last 7 would be 99.21875%. So if you wanted to pick 99% of the score as a threshold, you could say that the last 7 seasons have a noticeable impact on your prestige.