Posted by hughesjr on 1/2/2013 8:40:00 AM (view original):
I am not assuming anything.
"CS: The current season's success if combined with a baseline prestige (all DII schools are the same and all DIII schools are the same) to come up with the new prestige. That number is then averaged with the previous prestige. So, it's basically a 50/50 split of the new value and the previous value."
If they do what they said ... a simple "AVERAGE" the prestige from last season and this season to obtain current prestige, then my equation is the outcome. This is just math and nothing else.
For the end of season 2, you would have simply:
For season 3, you would have:
(s3 + (s2+s1)/2)/2
This is the same as:
s3/2 + (s2+s1)/4
adding in another year you would get::
(s4 + s3/2 + (s2+s1)/4)/2
and that is:
s4/2 + s3/4 + (s2+s1)/8
So ... IF they are saying what they mean ... and IF the prestige is an average of the last 2 seasons ... THEN season 1 does have a very minute impact on the overall prestige at the end of season 70 (as would every season played). After about 7 previous seasons though, the impact is < 1% and so those are the ones that matter in any meaningful way.
They did not say they did a weighted average of any number of seasons, they said they did an average of the last year and this year ... If they were not telling us the correct process, then sure it could be anything.
But since they said average of last season and this season and since that is by far the easiest thing to program (you only look at 2 things), that seems like what they are doing to me.
you are assuming something. first off, "if they are saying what they mean" - let me stop you right there. CS gives rookie level answers, and vets try to read too much into them, and that is a grave mistake. it has lead to the most widespread confusion ive ever seen in HD, at least in my 5 year tenure - probably the entire top 5 is comprised of vets (mis)reading too much into a CS response. its either a context issue, or them giving a "general" answer that is not really capturing what a vet is looking for, or something along those lines. you have to fundamentally understand that the current admin doesnt have any clue what it is like to play this game at a high level, and nor have any of the admins shown any interest in catering to high level coaches by giving high level answers.
"That number is then averaged with the previous prestige. So, it's basically a 50/50 split of the new value and the previous value."
I see where you are coming from, assuming that the "previous prestige" is using the exact same calculation as it was last season. that is not stated either way. but notice that word, "basically"? seble, or whomever, is just trying to characterize the situation. they are not providing the exact breakdown. you are going too far by deducing there equations you have provided. i see where you get them, you are setting up the simple regression - but it just doesn't work that way, at least, based on the collective comments of admins prior to these posts by alblack, and the consensus within the HD community that there is only a finite window on prestige. in baseline prestige, we've asked for a long, long time - to use the seasons before just the last several - but we've never gotten it. if those seasons were already factored in (albeit very slightly), i can't see admin not mentioning that at the time (i am pretty sure that was old admin, when those conversations were had).
the real moral of the story is not to read too much into a general CS statement. if seble said, its a regression where the value of every season is cut in half, each subsequent season - id be with you. but he didn't. there is too much ambiguity. even in the last 4 seasons, it REALLY does not look like a 50, 25, 12.5, 6.25 split. the HD community has long recognized a "dropoff" from NC or f4 teams who do little after, when that NC/f4 "drops off" after the 4th season ago. going from 6.25% to 3.125% would not be something we would notice (might have been 5 seasons, im not sure). but you can pretty easily resolve the situation by asking seble, "in tark, do the 1st season results have a very, very small impact on prestige, or is there a finite window and only the last X seasons are counted?". it would be nice to know what X is. or you can prove you can compute prestige in all cases with your equation, well at least demonstrate it if you cant farm the data (i could provide the already farmed data from my dynasty list program if we took this far enough, i just have never done it on this computer - but i promised to re run them around christmas time so i really need to do it anyway)
1/2/2013 12:38 PM (edited)