2/4/2013 4:19 PM
Way too early Final Four

Sorry for not getting my conference picks in this season before play started. Being on the road and coaching really carved into my time. Thanks to all for the vigorous discussion and lists and whatnot to keep this thread going in the early portion of the season. Having taken a day to look around, here's my preliminary thinking, in alphabetical order:

CSU Eastbay (tedlukacs, 28-5, Elite 8 last season)
One of the things that I've come to see since I began keeping tabs on Rupp D3 is that there are certain coaches who consistently out-perform the numbers their teams project at when I attempt to come up with a preseason hierarchy. Ted is one of those coaches -- he always seems to get a round or two deeper with his teams than my numbers suggest he should. Given that that's the case during a normal year, I can only imagine what might happen now that he's in possession of a roster that my numbers suggest is one of Rupp's best this season. Ten of the 12 players are upperclassmen and nobody on this roster is ranked below 511. The only visible weakness is a low passing rating for this squad.

Greensboro (tilldog28, 21-10, 2nd round NT)
It has been three seasons since tilldog28 and Greensboro last visited a national championship game, but they could easily be back this season with a roster that starts in the 50's in the big-three categories. Eric Yeoman is a fine looking PG who averaged 13.6 ppg as a junior. Like Eastbay, there isn't a freshman on tilldog28's roster. The day of the dog might be returning to Rupp in the very near future.

Millsaps (brianxavier, 16-17, PI Final 4)
I reached last season when I projected Millsaps to win the University despite its youth and was made to look silly for that faith. I do not think I'm guilty of a similar error this year. With seven upperclassmen, including Dennis Bryant (13.3 ppg last season) who starts the year with a 725 ranking. He might be joined in the 700-club by two teammates before season's end. Millsaps has been in two of the last six national championship games and may well be heading back to its third when the season wraps up in Rupp.

Piedmont (bunker buster, 24-7, 2nd round NT)
Bunkerbuster returns to coach a senior class he loaded up on in his first season at the school. After taking sabbatical last year and watching his talent Sim its way to 24 wins and a second-round appearance, a more-senior Piedmont could rise higher this year. Eleven upperclassmen and a walk on -- this is the year for success as 10 of the 11 "real" players are ranked 540 or higher and the roster goes seven deep on the 600's. The word juggernaut comes to mind as I stare at the lineup.

Let the discussion begin!

2/4/2013 4:54 PM
Posted by jwils2 on 2/4/2013 4:02:00 PM (view original):
Wow. lost by 32 
Not sure what you said at halftime, but I'd suggest going with a different speech tonight.
2/5/2013 11:33 AM
Is this the first time we've had a WTEFF without a GNE team listed?  Probably a good call, though.  J&W has some nice top end talent, but not enough depth for a serious run in the NT.  Several other teams around the league look pretty good, but not elite.  Should be a good season for "the field."
2/5/2013 12:34 PM
Posted by spasticity on 2/5/2013 11:33:00 AM (view original):
Is this the first time we've had a WTEFF without a GNE team listed?  Probably a good call, though.  J&W has some nice top end talent, but not enough depth for a serious run in the NT.  Several other teams around the league look pretty good, but not elite.  Should be a good season for "the field."
I believe it would be...I can't remember a year where I didn't have either Riv or JW on the list.
2/5/2013 3:56 PM
Posted by brianxavier on 2/2/2013 11:49:00 AM (view original):
any word from customer service spasticity?
CS did establish a connection with the Brockport coach and another user in Rupp.  I'd like to give that user a chance to explain before throwing the name out there, but it's tough to imagine a scenario where that wasn't intentional douchebaggery.
2/5/2013 11:40 PM
Posted by spasticity on 2/5/2013 3:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by brianxavier on 2/2/2013 11:49:00 AM (view original):
any word from customer service spasticity?
CS did establish a connection with the Brockport coach and another user in Rupp.  I'd like to give that user a chance to explain before throwing the name out there, but it's tough to imagine a scenario where that wasn't intentional douchebaggery.
Obviously I'm not aware of the facts since my recruits weren't impacted (who would want them...?), but I agree that a credible explanation does require some imagination to come up with based on what's been said. 
2/6/2013 9:41 AM
Posted by rednu on 2/5/2013 11:40:00 PM (view original):
Posted by spasticity on 2/5/2013 3:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by brianxavier on 2/2/2013 11:49:00 AM (view original):
any word from customer service spasticity?
CS did establish a connection with the Brockport coach and another user in Rupp.  I'd like to give that user a chance to explain before throwing the name out there, but it's tough to imagine a scenario where that wasn't intentional douchebaggery.
Obviously I'm not aware of the facts since my recruits weren't impacted (who would want them...?), but I agree that a credible explanation does require some imagination to come up with based on what's been said. 
Yeah that's part of what makes it weird, neither of the 2 players were anything that special.  Rivier's Peterson was just an all Ath/Spd/Def guy in the mold of Allen Woods, but probably would never be THAT good with the bad WE.  Similarly, Sexton was a project of a SG with weak WE.  He did have H/H Spd and Per, though, so he had a chance to be a solid player.

The reason I really noticed it is I had both guys on my watch list and I notice when statuses change for those guys.  2 changing late with the same school moving in is definitely unusual. 

Note that the other 4 players Brockport signed were all ast coach signings right at the very end.  And it appears that no gameplanning has been done at all since recruiting.  It's pretty clear that team was never being genuinely run, imo.

2/6/2013 10:53 AM
Posted by spasticity on 2/6/2013 9:41:00 AM (view original):
Posted by rednu on 2/5/2013 11:40:00 PM (view original):
Posted by spasticity on 2/5/2013 3:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by brianxavier on 2/2/2013 11:49:00 AM (view original):
any word from customer service spasticity?
CS did establish a connection with the Brockport coach and another user in Rupp.  I'd like to give that user a chance to explain before throwing the name out there, but it's tough to imagine a scenario where that wasn't intentional douchebaggery.
Obviously I'm not aware of the facts since my recruits weren't impacted (who would want them...?), but I agree that a credible explanation does require some imagination to come up with based on what's been said. 
Yeah that's part of what makes it weird, neither of the 2 players were anything that special.  Rivier's Peterson was just an all Ath/Spd/Def guy in the mold of Allen Woods, but probably would never be THAT good with the bad WE.  Similarly, Sexton was a project of a SG with weak WE.  He did have H/H Spd and Per, though, so he had a chance to be a solid player.

The reason I really noticed it is I had both guys on my watch list and I notice when statuses change for those guys.  2 changing late with the same school moving in is definitely unusual. 

Note that the other 4 players Brockport signed were all ast coach signings right at the very end.  And it appears that no gameplanning has been done at all since recruiting.  It's pretty clear that team was never being genuinely run, imo.

Yeah, I'd been keeping an eye on gameplanning and sub patterns since your original post and agree that it looks like a ghost ship.
2/9/2013 7:13 AM
As a team, Chapman (my team) has yet to cover a spread in a win, but we did beat the one team we were projected to lose too, and currently sit at 6-0 ranked 8th. Still got some tough games left on the schedule, I have no idea what to think about this season. I just know that its been a good one for the Northwest Conference
2/9/2013 11:15 AM
Woohoo, 1st career win last night
2/9/2013 2:43 PM
Early results of the season so far have me thinking it's wide open this year for the champion.  My Millsaps team is solid, but very beatable.  I think there are so many solid coaches in D3 Rupp it's getting more difficult to come up with an overwhelming favorite.  Still some undefeated teams out there, but I suspect many top teams will lose before the season is over. 
2/13/2013 10:03 PM
Early season thoughts at HS... 8-2 #14, 39 RPI, 77 SOS. Easy defeats to NT contenders Millsaps and Ursinus. team is the 23rd highest rated in D3 with one walk on. However, for the first time in many seasons, we are not in the rankings in any category. I see a fast exit from the postseason. This is stemming from 3 seasons ago when I had a horrible class with 4 walk ons. Had to go juco to fix it and they weren't that great. It'll be another 4 seasons before we seriously contend.
2/14/2013 12:05 PM
Ten teams remain undefeated heading into conference play. Good scheduling for Sewanee (madpad78), Ursinus (barjaz), Tufts (zmark513), Piedmont (bunkerbuster), Palm Beach Atlantic (osgnlz), Thomas (coachuk), Connecticut (rwright) and Sims Milikin, Hunter and Allegheny.

The first four names on that list managed to stay perfect despite SOS ratings in the top 70.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, there's twelve teams still searching for their first victories of the year, including seven human coaches taking the walk of shame. Don't worry guys, I always keep your identities secret to protect the guilty. Some of those teams are crashing pretty hard as well -- four of them had 21+ victories last season.

The good news is at least one of them will get a 'W' before season's end. Anderson and Transylvania will eventually face off in  Heartland conference game. The other 0-fers are scattered throughout conferences in Rupp.

One other off-day note -- just in case anyone didn't notice, it should be observed that the Great Northeast is NOT the world's top D3 conference in RPI currently. Not sure when the last time that claim could be made. The title of Evil Empire might have to get tossed on eBay and thrown to the highest bidder. Hats off to the University for making life a little more exciting this season.
2/15/2013 10:21 AM
The UAA has certainly taken notice of their  lofty rating atop Conference RPI.  It only took us, what -- a million seasons?

We'll see if we can maintain it thru the whole season.  Our real goal is to get a national champion from our league.  Still real hard to see who that champion may be this year as there doesn't seem to be a stand out team.
2/17/2013 3:13 PM

Midseason rundown time...first number is the number of teams projecting to the national tournament, second number are the additional teams projecting to the PIT. 

 

ASC 3/1, Capital 1/0, Centennial 2/1, CUNY 1/0, CCIW 2/1, Coast 1/1, Commonwealth 3/0, Empire 2/3, Freedom 1/2, GNE 7/1, Heartland 1/1, Iowa 0/2, Little East 0/2, Michigan 3/2, Midwest 1/1, Minnesota 2/2, NESCAC 4/0, New Jersey 0/1, N. Atlantic 2/1, NCAC 4/1, Northwest 2/3, Ohio 2/1, ODAC 1/3, Penn 0/0 (highest team rated 153), Skyline 0/1, So. Cal. 3/0, St. Louis 1/0, SUNY 0/0 (highest team rated 97), University 8/0, Upstate 2/0, USA South 4/0, Wisconsin 1/1. 

 

Seven teams still unbeaten...Sewanee, Hunter, Tufts, Ursinus, Palm Beach Atlantic, Thomas and Connecticut. Eight teams still looking for their first win.  
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