All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > Need advice, pls- offense vs defense
2/2/2013 4:34 PM (edited)
I was hoping some of the more experienced SIMBallers could give me some guidance on what a player means to a team when you weigh his offense vs his defense.

For example, I have a '94 Bip Roberts on a team, plugging him in at 3B (out of position, so no stats). Here's his offense and defense at 3B so far for me:

Offense
 G  AB R    H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS  Avg. OBP Slg.
84 309 51 94 17   3   0    46  24 41 16    3  .304 .357 .379

Defense
--   GP GS -Inn.- E Throw
   Err.
PO -A- DP Good Poor Fld %
3B  66  66 595.0 14  --5--  56 141 11 ---0--- --10- .934

Is there any way to figure how much he's costing me defensively, and how would the net effect compare to a lesser offensive player with better defense like, say, 1916 Mike Mowrey, who has A/B- (.965/3.16) defenive rating. Below are his actual production numbers combined with normalized stats, based on 162 games:

G AB   R    H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K  SB CS Avg.  OBP Slg.
-- 523 60 132 27   5     1  63  55 73 16  22  .252  .333 .339


I used Mowrey because he is comparable in salary at $3.87m to Bip's $3.92m

Can anyone help quanitfy the differential between Bip's better offensive production offset by atrocious fielding vs Mowrey's weaker offense but very good defense?  Much thanks in advance.






2/2/2013 3:43 PM
IDK if this is an accurate way to judge this subject, but if you double Bip's defensive numbers to a full season, he would have 28 Errors and 20 (-) plays, or 48 outs given away. Mowrey doesn't have a performance history to look at fielding numbers, but a sampling of A/B- thirdbasemen with a similar number of PAs shows that an estimate would be about 10 Errors and a net of a couple of (-) plays, or 12 outs given away. That's a differential 36 more outs given away for Bip. If you flipped those number into offensive terms, and either deducted 36 hits from Bip or added 36 hits to Mowrey, it seems the overall value scale tips toward Mowrey-- that would be about a 70 point swing in Avg., without accounting for any run production.

Am I totally flawed in this analysis? 
2/2/2013 4:43 PM (edited)
You might want to read through this post:

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=462499&page=1

There is a good amount of information on this type of question with a number of different opinions (and facts) expressed.

these are also very helpful threads on the subject of the value of defense:

http://whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420094&page=1

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=455496


2/3/2013 1:26 AM (edited)
Off the top of my head, I'd take Mowrey in a second.  But let's see the math...

Based on OL performance (.317/.368/.381) Bip projects a defensive adjusted line of .285/.339/.341 at 3B.  Your slash line and defense has him worse than OL history, so let's go with my numbers as optimistic.

There is no performance history on Mowrey, but given his era and that that he is right handed, I'm guess he projects to be .232/.313/.323.  I know you have gotten better numbers from him, so lets use mine with the caveat that they are pessimistic.  We can use '54 Yost's fielding stats as a substitute.  By my calculations Mowrey's defensive adjusted line is: .250/.329/.350 at 3B.

Color me surprised-- The numbers are close and I'd consider Roberts over Mowrey.  But I think considering
     1) My methodology is conservative on defensive adjustment 
     2) My offensive projection on Bip was optimstic compared to your league results.
     3) My projection on Mowrey was pessimistic based on your results.
     4) Their projected defensive adjusted OPS is about the same
     5) Mowrey will save about $300K worth of pitches over Roberts.
I'd still take Mowrey.

However, for the same money please note there are much better options at 3rd.  '95 Boggs, '98 Loretta top my list, but I'm sure there are 50 or more options that better fit the bill.
2/2/2013 11:07 PM
Personally I never look at defense.  

I've currently got a 67 Pete Rose at 2B and 67 Clete Boyer at SS - both are horrible defensively at those positions - but I feel their offensive presence makes up for it.  I'm sure you'll find owners that both agree with me and adamantly disagree - i think in the end though you have to go with what's better for you and what you prefer.  

If you're ok with extending a few innings for some extra offense then go with Roberts.  
2/3/2013 1:52 AM
People vastly underestimate the impact of defense.  I think it is because 40 points of average, obp or slugging sound like more than 2 points of fielding percentage.

Who is better?
Shortstop A: .289/.347/.363, .992 FP, B- range (4 +, 3- plays)
Shortstop B: .331/.389/.409, .973 FP, C- range (7 - plays)




2/3/2013 12:44 PM (edited)
Thanks for all of the insight. Some very infrmative info and links.

Zub, I'm anxious to see the answer to your last question of who's better. I tend to like guys with a little better defense, but I've not known how to quantify the difference to know if I was right.

In the new league I'm doing, I opted for '73 Don Money over Bip at 3B.

http://www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/profile_draft.asp?pid=2173146&spot=16&mpid=9841&career=0&tid=-1&ld=0&bl=0&ad=1&AAA=0&AAAPos=6
2/3/2013 1:45 PM (edited)
This asks the proverbial question....would you rather have Roberts go 4 for 4 and have 4 balls go between his legs or would you rather have him go 0 for 4 with no miscues.  Well.... depends.  I look at the 5 teams I have going right now and I come up with an average slugging percentage of .421 for me and .378 against me. Giving my baserunners approximately a 20 percent higher chance of scoring than my opponents. So I would take the first scenario in a second. On my teams I would need a 5 to 4 ratio of miscues to hits/w. if I were doing the calculations.  The higher the slugging around guys on base, the more run production. It can be clearly seen on your team rankings page that teams with the same OBP with plus .040 slugging numbers score about 20 percent more per runner.  So.......for my teams I'd always take Bip Roberts. Check your slugging ratio that may not be the case for you. zubinsum is right people always underestimate defense...but.....for the life of me I don't understand why people have this love affair with slap hitters and underestimate slugging as well.
2/3/2013 2:57 PM
Posted by jmcraven74 on 2/3/2013 12:44:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for all of the insight. Some very infrmative info and links.

Zub, I'm anxious to see the answer to your last question of who's better. I tend to like guys with a little better defense, but I've not known how to quantify the difference to know if I was right.

In the new league I'm doing, I opted for '73 Don Money over Bip at 3B.

http://www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/profile_draft.asp?pid=2173146&spot=16&mpid=9841&career=0&tid=-1&ld=0&bl=0&ad=1&AAA=0&AAAPos=6
Don Money's DA line: .305/.355/.406,  $112K
You made the smart choice.


The answer is that they are close to the same:

98 OV SS                
da avg .340 .341 .342 .344 .345 .346 .346 .346 .346
da obp .394 .395 .396 .397 .398 .399 .399 .399 .399
da slg .427 .428 .430 .431 .433 .434 .434 .434 .434
K$p $344 $352 $360 $369 $378 $385 $385 $385 $385

99 OV SS                
da avg .342 .343 .343 .343 .344 .344 .344 .344 .344
da obp .394 .394 .395 .395 .395 .395 .395 .395 .395
da slg .423 .424 .424 .425 .425 .425 .425 .425 .425
K$p $98 $100 $103 $105 $108 $109 $109 $109 $109


When you consider pitching, if you are using deadballers, I think '98 Vizquel is clearly better than '99 Vizquel.  I am guessing at least half the people on this site would disagree with me though.
2/4/2013 7:39 PM
I think it depends on the stadium you choose as well.  If you're in a +single stadium, having infielders with good range could take some of those away - while also allowing your "poor hitter" to get a few extra hits 
2/4/2013 8:20 PM
In my experience defense is relatively stable, in other words there is less chance of drastic swings in his performance. If a SS is rated A/B you will pretty much see him play consistently at that defensive rating regardless of the variables. If that same SS is a .260 hitter he may hit .280 or .220, (of course with all the variables thrown in, home park, RH or LH batter etc.) For these reasons I normally defer to the better defensive player. And of course using a better bat with terrible defensive ratings and seeing the unearned runs allowed when you scan your box scores may result in the need for strong blood pressure medication.
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