One of many items in the current engine....no one knows the answer. Theoretically, you are correct, but there are a ton of factors that come into the turnover equation. I don't know all of them, but think about .....what offense are you running? what defense is the opponent running? Is the defense playing aggressive vs conservative? In the new update, the PBP should help to describe what is happening when a turnover occurs....which hopefully will provide some insight into the real factors that contribute to turnover(s).