3/21/2013 1:41 AM
I'm thinking mFP is definitely the way to go.  Individual totals incorporating it add up pretty damn close to what the team total is by the stats page. I'm not able to get it spot on,  but I think that's more a fact of me tearing apart the fielding sheets to incorporate this, then anything else.

For catchers I was thinking of how we incorporate PB into the total? Since they aren't outs, per se, do we even count them at all? Maybe just say they are worth the same as a stolen base, which is .2 runs according to Fan Graphs?

Also how do we incorporate stolen bases into this? Take league average CS rates and apply almost the same baserunning formula? Whereas the value of an out by throwing a guy out is roughly .436 runs, (varies by year, the sheet computes this automatically)?

Say something like: ((CS-(SBA*LGavgCS%))*whatever value a stolen base is that year + mFP?

Or do we say this is the formula for catchers is? (PO+A+CS)/(PO+A+SBA+minus-plus)*whatever value an out is that year?

 


3/21/2013 9:51 AM
Yeah I used the league average CS rates.

Basically I did: [ .4*(CS - E) - .2*(SBA - CS + PB + E) ] - [ .4*(.25 * SBA - 5) - .2*( (.75 * SBA ) + 8 ) ]

The first bracket is the player and the second bracket is the "league-average. So the first term .4*(CS - E) is the value of the outs he created and the second term .2*(SBA-CS+PB) is the value (negative for a fielder) of the bases he allowed. I guess 0.436 would be more accurate. The first bracket is the value of the outs a league-average player would have created, assuming 25% CS rate, which seems about average for the No Quitters world. And likewise for the second term, using 5 as a league-average number of errors and 8 as a league average number of passed balls. I guess I improve that by doing errors and PB for catchers as a rate function, but honestly I was just kind of lazy by the time I got around to catcher defense so I took a shortcut there. I then took all that and then divided it by Innings/1200 to normalize it somewhat (ie, a guy that allows 4 PB in 600 innings would be average rather than above average).

This assumes that all errors create an out, which might not be true. Some of them might be overthrows that just add another base, but I think it's close enough. Thoughts?
3/21/2013 9:59 AM
i think you guys are way smarter than me
3/21/2013 11:49 AM
Posted by jtrinsey on 3/21/2013 9:51:00 AM (view original):
Yeah I used the league average CS rates.

Basically I did: [ .4*(CS - E) - .2*(SBA - CS + PB + E) ] - [ .4*(.25 * SBA - 5) - .2*( (.75 * SBA ) + 8 ) ]

The first bracket is the player and the second bracket is the "league-average. So the first term .4*(CS - E) is the value of the outs he created and the second term .2*(SBA-CS+PB) is the value (negative for a fielder) of the bases he allowed. I guess 0.436 would be more accurate. The first bracket is the value of the outs a league-average player would have created, assuming 25% CS rate, which seems about average for the No Quitters world. And likewise for the second term, using 5 as a league-average number of errors and 8 as a league average number of passed balls. I guess I improve that by doing errors and PB for catchers as a rate function, but honestly I was just kind of lazy by the time I got around to catcher defense so I took a shortcut there. I then took all that and then divided it by Innings/1200 to normalize it somewhat (ie, a guy that allows 4 PB in 600 innings would be average rather than above average).

This assumes that all errors create an out, which might not be true. Some of them might be overthrows that just add another base, but I think it's close enough. Thoughts?
Let me play around with some of this tonight.

I like the idea of passed balls being a rate function in the sense they are rare, and I don't think have any real correlation to any of the defensive ratings, but I haven't done any test to prove this theory. So I like the idea of saying, Player X played in 1100 innings and had 7 PB, while league average catchers had 6 PB in the same time frame.

First part: Would we want to subtract errors from CS? We're already giving catchers who commit errors a .2 run deduction for each, which assumes the error would've been an out, or allowed the base-runner an extra base. So I think we it would be best if we said [CSvalue * CS - .2(SBA - CS + PB + E)] for the first part.

Second part: No real qualms about this. Just change the 5 for errors and 8 for passed balls into an equation that would give us league average numbers over a given player's playing time. The 25% CS rate and 75% SB Allowed rate could be modified to incorporate the league's average that season, so this statistic could be used to compare players across multiple years.

So I think this is a good start.

Now, do we even care about PO and A? I say no simply because most assists are from throwing base-runners out during SB attempts, and we obviously don't care if a catcher caught a lot of pitchers who have high strikeout rates. 






3/21/2013 12:12 PM
I think PB correlates with range and maybe glove as well.

I mistyped. I think there should be an E in the first term (subtracting from CS), but not the second (adding to PB). But I could be talked into either way.

I wouldn't include PO and A.
3/21/2013 12:12 PM
Posted by sergei91 on 3/21/2013 9:59:00 AM (view original):
i think you guys are way smarter than me
Or maybe the fact that we're spending all of this time and energy creating stat models for fictional baseball players might suggest the very opposite...
3/21/2013 1:03 PM
Posted by jtrinsey on 3/21/2013 12:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by sergei91 on 3/21/2013 9:59:00 AM (view original):
i think you guys are way smarter than me
Or maybe the fact that we're spending all of this time and energy creating stat models for fictional baseball players might suggest the very opposite...
+1
3/21/2013 9:56 PM
I've uploaded the updated worksheet. It can be found on the first post of the thread.

For catchers this is what I ended up doing.

(CSvalue*CS-.2(SBA-CS+PB+E+minus-plus))-(CSvalue*(LGavgCS%*SBA)-.2((1-LGavgCS%)*SBA-CS+PB*(PBrate*Inn)+E*(Erate*Inn)))

Where: 
CSvalue is the value of a catcher throwing out a stolen base runner that season.
LGavgCS% is the percentage of runners thrown out by catchers that season.
PBrate is the per inning rate that catchers allowed passed balls that season.
Erate is the per inning rate that catchers committed errors that season.

Should note, I'm still working on cleaning up my pitcher WAR spreadsheet. I didn't want to combine the two as I thought it might be a little too complicated and cluttered.

3/22/2013 1:44 AM
Added the pitcher WAR sheet to the first post of the thread.

I included a couple other SABR stats into the sheet as well, including BABIP. HBD user italianajt helped incorporate some of those into the other sheet I had developed.

Because WIS doesn't keep track of sacrifice hits for pitchers, we estimated sacrifices based on innings pitched. 
3/25/2013 12:08 PM
Thanks for the shout out lccooler. Theexcel file with offensive sabermetrics (without all of your crazy catching gobble-degook) should be ready in a jiff. Also, the BABIP formula is incorrect in that it includes an estimate of both Sac Fly's and Sac Hits, whereas the actuall BABIP formula is just for Sac Flies (I don't know why sac hits aren't considered a ball in play).
3/25/2013 12:33 PM
Below is the link to the spreadsheet version I use based off of the one provided by lccooler. I apologize that I couldn't insert the link all nicely but IE kept crashing when I'd open up the "Insert/Edit Link" function in the forum.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B64X01M93goYYk9WemcxVEptMEk/edit?usp=sharing


The spreadsheet has some estimate calculations on the SABRPitching and SABRBatting sheets. Sacrifice Fly's Allowed is not recorded by WIS (for some reason) so I had to create a formula to get an average number of Sacrifice Fly's given up by each pitcher in the league. It's a very rough estimate but does not through off the BABIP calculation for pitchers at all. On the SABRBatting spreadsheet the wOBA calculation (entitled wiswOBA) does not use an ROE number since WIS does not track when batters reach base on an error. This wOBA calculation IS NOT factored into the WAR calculation so as not to throw off that whole mumbo-jumbo.

If you have questions on how better to estimate some of these statistics please let me know. Maybe with enough pressure we could force WIS to release easily tracked information.
7/16/2013 4:49 PM
bump for duck
7/17/2013 8:49 AM
Can someone advise on how to open these sheets? For some reason they are not opening when I click on the links.  Thanks in advance.     
7/18/2013 7:45 AM
You should be getting an error message of some sort if you don't have the proper program.
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