Posted by ike1024 on 4/14/2013 5:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by eflhoca on 4/14/2013 5:16:00 PM (view original):This thread is already off track, so what the hell?
KCsundevil probably also believes some players are "clutch."
Look, I'm just asking for the option to not sub players out for fouls in HD. You don't understand the (theoretically sound and logically consistent) strategy behind it, cool. I'll take the points.
There's a difference between analysis and defiant certainty of something which cannot be accurately measured. You have no idea whether players are "clutch." There may not be any predictive value, but you'd certainly have to admit that the human psyche is fragile, and that you can't possibly know what is affecting a player's ability to perform at any given moment. At least I hope you are willing to admit that.
If you want to hypothesize that "clutchness" is in fact just randomness based on a larger sample size, then that's certainly a viable theory. But neither you, nor Ken Pomeroy, nor any saber guy, can truly account for everything you need to affirmatively state that a player is never affected by the pressure of a specific game situation.
Ike, I agree with what you wrote. It's the same thing with the "hot hand" concept. It's been statistically disproven repeatedly, but yet we "see" it. There are time when guys are making consecutive shots that would appear to be very low-percentage yet they're going in consistently.
But in HD (the point of my OP), what you say doesn't apply because there is no "fragile human psyche."
This thread reminded me that last year (a couple years ago?) the programmers put in more timeouts to stop "runs" in the game because coaches kept arguing (against the programmers) that "runs" existed and should be stopped by timeouts. People believe what they want to.
To KCSundevil: I'm not going to engage with you further unless you explain why you think it's not a valid strategy. I explained the logic of it well enough, I think. It doesn't matter to me whether you or another coach uses it or not. But your argument of "everyone knows..." isn't an explanation. Plenty of coaches neglect the use of optimal strategies. Another suggested reading: March edition of ESPN Magazine.
4/15/2013 8:29 AM (edited)