All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > DH $52 Division Draft Analysis / League Prediction
5/22/2013 8:30 PM
And Nate, I know you know this, but I don't like the Rodman backing up the PF spot because you may lose any potential significant reb advantage there vs playing all his minutes at SF. I'd have left my backup SF undrafted and filled that spot in with any 500 minute guy you could find (like the guy I'm using- more than 500 minutes though).
5/22/2013 8:54 PM
Sly, yea had I gone with the $2mill Korver then Rodman would have been 41mpg at SF, or had I stuck with the 4-point West and not taken a $2mill 4-point backup PG then I would have used all Worm minutes at SF.

The problem is that by using the backup PG I am using that all of West's 38mpg have to be used at SG, and by using the $5mill Korver I'd be a fool not to keep his 61.8% efg on the court for all the minutes he offers, thus I'm forced to use him at SF and lose some of my Rodman advantage there.
5/22/2013 9:03 PM
In the past, my first rule was to, no matter what, not compromise my rebounding advantage.

I've been significantly less successful since I started ignoring that rule.

Take it for what it's worth.

5/22/2013 9:36 PM
Ash, in general I know you are correct about a rebounding advantage, but tad just won 57 games in the ODL and was out-rebounded for the season but had a solid shooting team with low to's and low fouls. I think it all comes back to balance and not being too weak in any one area.

Heck in the PPL I have a +5.3 orb and +11.1 rebounding advantage on the season and you are only at +1.9 and +2.9, but you have one more win than I do. Btw I still have jred and nc to get past in the playoffs but I'd love to see you in the finals in that one, although I don't think anyone can stop a Shaq, Howard, Paul combo.
5/22/2013 10:08 PM (edited)
well, I've gone 10-9 since the ASB... same thing happened last season.  I was way ahead in the east & had best record overall... and then didn't even win my division.

Tad's ODL team really blew my mind... low turnovers & good defense trumped a bunch of teams with better boards & better shooting.  His OL team that's built similarly is dismantling my 60% efg% powerhouse in a playoff series as well.

There's always so many factors to keep in mind...  the simple complexity of the way everything runs together is what has always fascinated me.

5/22/2013 11:06 PM
Posted by ashamael on 5/22/2013 9:03:00 PM (view original):
In the past, my first rule was to, no matter what, not compromise my rebounding advantage.

I've been significantly less successful since I started ignoring that rule.

Take it for what it's worth.

Especially when you have an advantage like that for +40min/gm.
5/26/2013 2:30 PM (edited)

I had hoped to complete this before the games started, but RL kind of got in the way and I ran out of time.

I spent a lot more time on the East than the West, but will take a harder look at the West tomorrow, even though the games will have begun.

I did a complete analysis of my own division, so I’ll start with that. I will try to get something up for the other divisions prior to tomorrow night’s games.

Central Predictions

I believe that three teams will have separation from the other three by season’s end, the top three should all be playoff teams and I think it will be an uphill climb for the other three.

1.       Don’t Call it a Comeback, Sly’s team is a slight favorite because of his stellar efg and he is one of only two teams in the division with a weighted D over 71. His tov% is also 2nd best in the division and his rebounding is 3rd (just a shade below 2nd). His biggest liability is his high foul rate, which is by far the highest in the division and while his draw rate is adequate his draw to foul ratio is still far and away the lowest in the division. Come playoff time this could become a major issue for sly and could even cost him the division because the next two teams behind him are very close.

2.       DurantsDynamicDozen, dh555’s team has a very potent combo in Durant/Stockton, but his RL possessions are the lowest in the division and his tov% is high when compared with the rest of the division (2nd highest and a shade below the highest) this could result in a serious to issue for dh. His efg is high, his ast% is 2nd and his boards are elite for the division, but his D is a little low for this league. Draw to foul ratio is better than 1.5 as well. The key for DH is how bad will the to’s be, that will be the factor that determines this team’s fate IMO.

3.       Three Star Ego Strokers, natenoy. Best weighted D ave, highest weighted ast%, 3rd on the boards, draw to foul ratio of close to 1.5, but highest tov% and low RL possessions, could mean massive to issue. How well can Jerry West and how much will the sub-50 D of Daugherty hurt this team will be key factors.

 

Next three are Badja, Kat and Banditone in that order, will provide analysis in the AM, wanted to get this posted before tipoff though.

5/26/2013 9:40 PM (edited)

Well we have a game in the books now, and even though you can’t read too much into a single night two things did stick out in the Central division from the game 1 boxscores:

1.       Durant had 10 to’s and DH had a league high 27, with such a high tov% and so few RL possessions DH may be forced to go HC.

2.       As I stated previous my team does have the highest ast% in the division, but I don’t think I’ll see another 46 assist night again anytime soon. Not sure how happy I should be with West’s 14 for 22, 34 point, 12 dime night, because (1) a lot of it was against sub-60D and (2) how many 7 for 22 nights will the sim give me against Sly and DH to bring West back to his expected numbers?

 

But keep an eye on West and my team efg, I noticed in the HDP progressive that Granger’s efg was like 8% higher with a 30%+ assist guy on the floor, and my current OL team keeps a 30%+ assist guy on the floor most of the time but does NOT have CRAZY assists overall like some people try and after 67 games the team efg is .593, 66-67 Wilt is at .746 and 12-13 LeBron is at .646. I really think having a 30% plus guy on the floor and a team ave of 75% (something that can actually be done here without sacrificing too much in other areas) may result in a significant efg boost, but I sure don’t expect to see .625 again like tonight many more games this season.

 

Ok back to the Central predictions:

 

4. KAJ33+3's, badja. Highest efg team in the division but 2nd lowest D and dreb of 82.51% is too low to hang with good rebounding teams. Low pf rate, but 2nd lowest draw to foul ratio because this team is also far too light on FTA’s. Good shooting should make for a winning record at home, but lack of rebounding and ability to get to the line will make it very difficult for this team to win many road games, in this conference I don’t think this team can contend for the playoffs.

UPDATE
Two things caused me to move the badja team to the list of playoff contenders for the East: (1) When I looked at this team I had not even looked at the 18 teams not in this division yet and did not realize that badja actually has the highest efg in the entire league; and (2) I spent the better part of the afternoon really looking at this team and trying to figure out how the heck to defend it. You can't double Kareem or Nash and the boys will rain down threes on you, double Nash and Kareem will go off, go -2 to stop Kareem and McAdoo and again three point city, go +3 to stop the amazing three point shooting and get crushed inside. I don't know how I'll win any games at badja's place and I don't think many others will either, he could take 30+ wins at home with such an efg advantage and such an unstoppable inside/outside combo. Still will have issues on the road for the reasons noted above, but at home this team will be a real beast to go up against. (Note I posted this before badja takes me to the woodshed tonight at his place.)

 

5. KT's Nowitzki Loneriders, katernberg. Glaring issue for this team is weighted ave D of only 60.05. Yes this team has amazing rebounding, but the other team has to actually miss shots for the 96.78 dreb% to have any usefulness. Team draws a lot of fouls and does not foul too much giving it the best ratio in the division, efg is around 55 which makes this a good shooting team as well, but the lack of D will be a deal breaker IMO and it will be difficult for this team to have a winning record.

 

6. Tsunami Crew, banditone. Lowest efg team in the division by far at just over 52%, not a good thing when the rest of the division is close to 56% and higher. Also a doormat in the rebounding department with a dreb% of only 79.12 and 2nd worst fouling team at a pf rate of 8.33. Tov% is very low and draw rate is very high, problem is that this team drafted WAY more possessions than it could EVER see in the sim at over 146 per game, so this team won’t draw as many fouls as it wants, and it will foul more than it expects. One or two of pre-1980 guys can bring balance, but when the majority of your minutes come from the pre-80’s guys not named Wilt, Bill, Jerry or a small handful of others then your team is in serious trouble in this league IMO.

5/26/2013 2:30 PM (edited)

Atlantic

This is a very tight division and the only team that looks like it will be out of it before the all-star break is iccoachb’s.

1.       The Brothers Brandon, tarheel1991. When things are this close I think the safest pick is to go with the guy that has enjoyed the most recent success in the draft leagues, I’ve met tar in the playoffs in four of my last six draft leagues, and I’ve yet to see a team of his not come together and finish 1-2 in his division. He has the 2nd best efg in the division, a dominant orb% at 42.71 and adequate dreb% at 87.60. Even with Uncle Buck being a foul monster his overall team foul rate is only 7.41 and his draw to foul ratio is over 1.5:1. His D and tov% are well within the league norms with the D being a little above ave and the tov% a little below. His ast% is also adequate. Of course as we all know how well the Brandon’s do headlines this team, but the other pieces make this team a safe playoff bet regardless in IMO.

2.       Ash "Funktown" Mustangs, ashamael. First the good: only team in the division with an efg of 56 or higher, D is WAY better than any other team in the entire conference at 78.34 (no other team in the division over 70 and only two other teams in conference over 70). Dreb of 90.48 is above the 90# we should all shoot for and orb of 36.89 is plenty. Now the bad: Draw rate for fouls is 2nd lowest in the division and 3rd lowest in conference, foul rate of 8.47 is 2nd highest in division and 3rd highest in conference, ratio of 1.14 is the lowest in the entire conference. Tov% of 14.69 is only team in division over 14 and one of only 3 in conference over 14. Ast% of 59.48 is lowest in entire conference. RL poss/48 is FAR lower than any other team in the conference at only 98.47/g. This will be a VERY interesting case study in whether or not a high efg and elite D can offset what should be the highest turnover team in the conference. With so few RL possessions Ash will find himself in the individual penalty virtually every game, and is this ast% high enough to even get to his RL efg numbers? If ash finishes out of the playoffs then we will all know how important these factors are when compared to D and efg, but if ash rolls then it will reinforce that turnovers, fouls, and possessions can be discounted if your D and efg are high enough.

3.        Big Fun-duh-Mental, felonius. Efg is actually a little low for the conference at 53.77, but D is 2nd in division and 4th in conference at 69.68 and within the 68-72 range that IMO is critical. Great rebounding team with 2nd highest orb% and dreb% in division at 38.06 and 94.26. Very low tov% of 12.32, lowest foul rate in the entire conference at only 7.17, but only draw rate is only 10.00 so the ratio is below 1.5:1. An all-around solid team that should be a safe bet for the playoffs, unless the seble curse continues for felonius.

4.       For All My Daughters, 98average. Another really solid team that could easily make a playoff run if ash’s problems outweigh his strengths or if tar or felonius don’t perform as expected. Efg of 52.89 doesn’t look that bad as a standalone number, but it’s actually the 3rd lowest in the conference and 2nd lowest in the division, which is the main reason I put this team 4th and project it to be just outside of the playoffs. D of 69.09 is 5th best in conference, boards are adequate. Team ast% of 76.30 makes this the highest in the division and the only the 2nd team in the conference with a greater than 75% number. Is ast% of 75 enough to bump the RL efg? That is a question both 98 and I will be looking to answer this season. Highest draw rate in the entire conference at 14.26, but also a high foul rate of 8.55 (highest in division, 2nd highest in conference) however such a high draw rate gives this team the 2nd best ratio in the conference at 1.67:1. Low tov% of 12.73. This is a solid team, and if the ast% gives it an efg bump I would not be shocked for 98 to be within 2-3 games of the division and perhaps even win it.

5.       Space Ghost, longtallbrad. This team is a dark horse with an actual shot to do some damage. Tough break on the division draw, you can thank tar for that Brad. This is the BEST rebounding team in the conference with an dreb% of 97.89 and cred of 134.85. The efg of 54.50 actually puts this team 3rd in the division, D of 67.20 is just below the target range, ast% of 69.63 is 2nd best in division. Here’s the problem though, tov% of 13.97 is high, pf/rate of 8.49 is high, and draw rate of 9.03 gives this team the lowest draw rate in the conference and a ratio of only 1.06:1, meaning this team will foul WAY, WAY more than it draws and turn the ball over a lot. If rebounding can offset the fouls and to’s then this team could be very interesting and I won’t be shocked if it bumps off one of the consensus contenders for a playoff spot, but in the end I think being crushed on the FT and turnover battles will seal this team’s fate as a non-playoff team.

6.        Phi Slamma Jamma, iccoachb. I don’t want to be a douche, but if there was ever a FAQ on what NOT to do when you draft the 12-13 LeBron this would be the prime example. First the good: very low foul rate of 7.31, 3rd highest draw rate in the conference at 13.07, giving this team the top ratio in the entire conference at 1.79:1, so this team should completely dominate the FT battle. Tov% of 12.58 is also solid, so to’s should not be a major issue even though some individual guys had high RL numbers. Now the bad: 144.86 RL poss/48 means TONS of wasted usage, sure that should keep individual players out of the penalty, but LeBron missing out on getting to take all of his shots is a travesty. D is low at 63.08. And of course the UGLY: efg of 50.91 is rock bottom in the conference, orb% of 31.36 is rock bottom in the conference, dreb of 80.78 is rock bottom, and when I say “rock bottom” it’s not even close on these numbers. If this team wins 20 games I will be SHOCKED, you can’t have the worst shooting AND worst rebounding team in the conference with really weak D and even have a prayer at going .500, IMO. Hope icc stays in the league and wins the lottery, so he can build a better team around LeBron next time.

5/26/2013 10:57 PM (edited)

Before I breakdown the West I wanted to list a few observations I made between the two conferences. You can take this prediction to the bank: the will be a LOT more points scored in the East than the West. The East has a conference efg (per team ave, all teams weighed equally) of 54.79 while the West is at 53.26, the D in the East is FAR weaker though as the ave is 67.91 with only three teams over 70 and the West is 74.12 with only two teams UNDER 70 and two over 80! Rebounding is a little better in the West with %’s of 38.48orb and 90.49 dreb compared to 36.23 and 88.69 in the East. Of course ast% in the West is higher (largely because logain has the ast% of two teams combined) with the West having a 73.66 to 68.88 ast% advantage. The foul rate in the West is slightly higher at 8.02 to 7.90 but the draw rate is much lower at 10.83 to 11.30, meaning the ratio in the West at 1.35 is lower than the East’s 1.43. There are fewer possessions in the West (but remember two East teams have possession/g numbers that will never be reached) of 118.72 to 120.75, and turnovers in the West are higher at 14.18% to 13.54%.

Mid-West

This division is a real piece of work and there is only one team that I consider a LOCK for the playoffs. I could even see a situation where this division only gets the one playoff team because relative to the other divisions this one has a number of teams with serious issues. However, I will say this for logain, you did your homework man. Logain created the perfect division other than the Mikee team (which he pretty much got stuck with) in which to try his crazy ast% strategy.

1.       King Kong D, Mikee1. IMO a hands down frontrunner in this division. Wilt of course brings a huge advantage in numerous areas, but Mikee did a solid job with the rest of this team as well. Has an efg of 53 which is middle of the pack in the division, but could be higher if he can squeeze some extra shots out of Wilt. D of 77.15 is 2nd in the division, oreb of 40.65 and dreb of 97.51 are completely dominant in this division. Ast% of 78.89 is 2nd only to logain team, tov% of 13.72 would be near the bottom in any other division, but is actually the LOWEST in the MW. We all know Wilt gives you close to 48mpg of not fouling, which is reflective in Mikee’s league low 6.93 foul rate, his 11.59 draw rate is 2nd in the division as is his 1.67:1 ratio. With his schedule Mikee is an odds on favorite to finish in the top-4 and draft his own division next time, but I don’t think we will see a team have what appears to be such an easy division draw again for quite some time.

2.       So You're Telling Me There's a Chance!?, thomcat. I’ve giving this team the 2nd slot in the division because it is the best shooting team and has the best draw to foul ratio in the entire league at 1.74:1. Efg is 55.36 which would be 6th best in the Central but is tops in this division. D is solid 71.51 but below conference average, dreb of 79.73 is really weak but only two teams in the division crack 85 so this is still competitive and Mutumbo should flourish. Ast% over 70 at 71.01 should mean this team does lead the division in efg, low pf/rate of 7.29 and highest draw rate in entire conference at 12.69 means a significant FT advantage. However tov% of 15.48 is extremely high, but it is also high for the teams other than mikee’s in the division. The favorable schedule should mean squeeze this team into the playoffs, but logain could surprise and the Pacific could send five to the playoffs.

3.       Living Loving Maid, logain. As I said before logain drafted a division where he can see if this gimmick will work. Ast% of over 140, yea 1-4-0! D would be great in East but below average in West at 72.34. High pf/rate for the league but not for the division at 8.66, adequate draw rate of 10.61 but low ratio of 1.23 means logain will lose the FT battle outside of the division. Rebounding numbers will get him worked over out of the division on the glass with dreb of only 80.57, and that 140+ ast% better mean a lot of made shots because his orb% of 28.13 is one of the lowest I have ever seen in this league. Did I mention that this team has a tov% of 17.71, far and away the highest in the league. Your team will be fun to watch logain, but if I had to make a bet I’ve got to go with your plan not working in this league.

4.       The final three teams are really close together and I would be really surprised if any of them made a playoff push. I think they will all have losing records and likely be within 5 games or so of each other at the end. If forced to choose I’ll start with:  Red Hot, coachcroft because it is the best shooting team of the bunch. Efg of 55.17, D of 73.55, orb% of 35.95, dreb% of 87.48, ast% f 71.24, so far not too bad but this team has a pf/rate of 8.69, and a tov% of 16.39. Draw rate is 10.47 for a ratio of 1.20:1, meaning this team will get crushed on turnovers and the FT battle out of the division.

5.       Brave Dragons, seapilots. Efg of 53.35, D of 77.07, orb of 38.80, dreb of 84.30, ast of 68.15, tov of 13.91, foul rate of 8.30, draw rate of 10.81 for a 1.30 ratio. The D is strong but would fare much better in the East, the efg is average, the boards are low, the fouls and turnovers are high, like I said these bottom three are in many ways carbon copies of each other, not enough strengths and too many weaknesses in the key areas IMO to be very competitive.

6.       What Was I Doing, steelers821. Lowest efg in the division at 52.39, D is great at 80.86 (2nd highest in league) but we had an 85D team not make the playoffs last time around. Orb of 38.21 is solid but dreb of 84.82 is low, ast of 68.71 are adequate, foul ratio is horrid with a draw rate of only 9.84 and a foul rate of 8.92 for a nightmare ratio of 1.10:1. Tov% is also high at 14.52, IMO great D just isn’t enough to make up for so many other weaknesses in critical areas.

5/26/2013 4:21 PM

Pacific

I will be surprised if at least four of the six playoff spots in the West don’t come from the Pacific. The top-4 teams are in a solid position and the 5th would likely make the playoffs if it were in the MW instead of the Pacific. It is super-tight at the top and almost a coin-flip between 1-2 IMO.

1.       Tastes Like HoneyNut Cheerios, eleibowitz. This team does have some weak areas but the final factor I decided to go with in predicting this team to win the division was a dreb of 104.10%. From ALL of the analysis I have done at WIS I have found that the individual statistic with the highest correlation to wins is dreb%, and the eleibo team is has the highest dreb% in the league and is only one of two over 100%. The orb% of 42.21 is also near the top of the league, making this a team that will likely dominate the rebounding battle. The efg of 53.40 would be low in the East, but is just fine in the West, the D is very low for the West and in fact is 3rd lowest in the league at only 63.48, but I still think the reb adv makes up for the weak D. Ast% is barely adequate at 61.95 and this team won’t get to the line much with a draw rate of only 9.15, the pf/rate is a little high at 8.12 and the ratio is not good at 1.13:1 so this team will lose the FT battle. However, the final trump card is a tov% of only which is 2nd best in the conference and 5th overall in the league, so this team should win the possession battle in a landslide, making it a slight favorite in the division.

2.       Hindsight is 20/20, vancem. Vance has built another championship-level team that has the 2nd highest efg in the conference at 54.16. His D of 72.84 is average for the West but will hold up well in the 24 games against the East. Thanks to Moses this team has the highest orb% in the league at 47.41%, his dreb is a little low at 87.64, but it’s enough cred to dominate the boards versus the MW. Ast% might be too low at only 59.87, but this team has the 2nd highest draw rate in the conference at 12.50 and one of the lowest foul rates at 7.41 giving this team the 2nd best ratio in the conference at 1.69:1. Tov% of 13.23 is middle of the pack, but better than any team in the MW. This team will win the FT battle and out-shoot most of the teams in the conference, the question to me is will Vance’s advantage at the stripe, shooting, on D and on the orb’s be enough to overcome eleibo’s massive advantage on the dreb’s and slight to advantage.

3.       William's Grizzlies, theyard2. 1-4 here are close and 3-4 is even closer, but when in doubt always go with the team sporting MJ over the team with Spencer Haywood IMO. This is the 2nd best shooting team in the division at 54.02 efg, the top ast% team at 71.06 and the LOWEST (and only team under 12.00) in the entire league at 11.95. D is low for the conference at 69.68 but within the 68-72 target range. Dreb is 3rd highest in the division at 94.11 but orb is low at 34.78. FT numbers are all mediocre at 10.01 draw, 8.14 pf rate and low 1.23:1 ratio, meaning this team should lose the FT battle often, but rest assured that MJ will still get his. This is a solid team and even with the tough schedule in the Pacific it would dominate the MW and be a solid playoff team.

4.       DoneDeal In God We Trust!!!, tanguma44. Efg is solid for the West at 53.51, but how many shots will Haywood and his sub-50 efg steal from Sir Charles and his over-60efg is a burning question. D of 75.66 is above average for West, orb of 42.32 is top-3 in conference, but dreb of 91.87 ends up in bottom half of division (should really feast on MW teams though). Ast% is lowest in the entire league at 57.64, which IMO is too low to get everyone to their RL efg. Tov of 13.12 is middle of pack for division, and this team has an advantage in the FT battle with a draw rate of 11.22 and a low pf/rate of 7.39, giving this team a solid 1.52:1 ratio. Should lock down one of at least four playoff spots in the Pacific, but if low ast% hurts more than expected and Haywood shoots too much I could see this team just missing out.

5.       NoRegard4HumanLife, tricky24. The only one tricky can blame for such a difficult division is: tricky, since he drafted it. A dark horse playoff team because of the division difficulty, efg low at 52.33 but not too low for conference, D of 74.36, orb 39.18, dreb 91.49, ast 68.71, that set of numbers is solid, but team falls way short in FT and TO battles. Draw rate of 9.84, very high foul rate of 8.92, horrible 1.10:1 ratio and high tov% of 14.52 makes it an uphill battle for the playoffs for this team coming from this division.

6.       Monte Carlo Sim1, maglor1. Can one variable take a team from what otherwise is the elite level to a bottom feeder? Let’s look at some of the numbers for this team: top D in the league at 80.91, solid 37.45 oreb, 2nd best dreb in the league at 102.22, adequate ast% of 66.68, very low 12.97 tov%, strong FT ratio of 1.52:1 on 11.28 draw rate and low 7.43 pf/rate. SO, what is missing you ask? How about the ONLY sub-50 efg in the entire league at 49.95. I could be wrong, but IMO the worst shooting team in the league cannot muster a winning record, especially coming from a division as loaded as this one. If this team is successful then we can conclude that efg is “over-rated” but given what we have all seen in this league that would come as a major shock to almost all of us.

RECAP will be posted on Page 1 of this forum. Anyone else care to make some predictions?

5/26/2013 6:57 PM
Very nice detail in your analysis, nate.
5/26/2013 8:03 PM
I like that nate and ash get along now. Has made these leagues more fun.
5/26/2013 9:02 PM
Posted by logain on 5/26/2013 8:03:00 PM (view original):
I like that nate and ash get along now. Has made these leagues more fun.
That was all my bad logain, thought I knew more than I did back in the day, it's much nicer to burn time here when we are all getting along.
5/26/2013 9:05 PM
Thanks ash, I put some time into it, but hopefully it will pay off some day if I ever earn the right to draft my own division.
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