Pitch Rating Evaluation Topic

Plug in the league league leaders and you'll have an idea of the upper echelon.    Then plug in your players, decide who's performing as you'd like and then you'll know what level you need to get your results. 

My scale is different.   300 is at the top, 220 is about the minimum for a BL pitcher.   Keep in mind I have 3 different ratings/2 types of pitchers.   If you put that on a 100 scale, 73, more or less, would be BL minimum.
5/23/2013 11:16 AM
Yea for 0-100, generally about 70 or so is ML quality, but it varies from position to position (RP v SP) team to team and league to league... At least with my formula.
5/23/2013 12:57 PM
Control impacts pitch count which is reflected in stamina imop. Split balance is extremely important for SP and LRP. 1st pitch is more important than 2nd and so on. GB/FB/  reflects HR vs DP and Ball Park factors are huge on that number. Great splits and great 1,2 pitch will over come control particular for RP.SP with control issues walk more pitch less innings and have higher era as a result.My ML CIA has poor control 56 but a super nasty 1st  and 2nd pitch 91, 83 with a killer 64-87 split. He is among the league leaders save wise every season.  
6/9/2013 12:56 AM
The big question for me is the split number equal more or less important than the quality of the pitch? Chicken or Egg I have to think it is I am watching some players with exaggerated splits to see if in fact  how it plays out.
6/9/2013 1:02 AM
Just curious, as a lot of you are developing your own formulas - how do you refine them? Do you just start with a formula you think is good, and then wait to see how effective the pitcher is to see if your formula was accurate?

I could see if you're testing them on established pitchers and looking for a trend, but if that's the case, how are their so many different formulas out there? And are the formulas as helpful with developing pitchers?
6/10/2013 10:46 AM
I looked at pitchers' results and worked from there.   I only used my pitchers because I know their usage, defense, etc, etc.     With pitching, there are a lot of moving parts.   That's why I had to look at 2P, 3P and 4P pitchers with different eyes.    Then broke them down into RP/SP. 

As for undeveloped pitchers, I only use it to help me determine who should be on my staff.   I'm unconcerned with where they'll be in 2-3 seasons.  They'll get their minor league innings and we'll see where they are when they get there.
6/10/2013 10:52 AM
I started with my own in a league I had a long history in. I use an average ballpark and had average to above average fielding most of the time so I had a benchmark. And yes you just start with what you think makes a pitcher good and then look for ways to prove you are wrong and the tweak it from there.

 I think one reason there are so many formulas is because it depends on what you try and predict. Some formulas don't try and predict anything they are just used to find point totals so people can separate players out more quickly. Other try and predict ERA opponent OB% avg and slg%. I try and predict only WHIP to a reasonable degree over the long term. but there are guys that blow up the system.

 Guys with scores in the 90's can blow up my formula. Guys with all 5 pitches over 40 but distribution of 75-68-54-58-46 will outperform it. The real point is I know which guys will outperform my formula and can account for it.

Like Mike I am just separating them for a quick way to look at free agents and to decide who stays at AAA vs makes the big league roster or who is the 5th starter vs long guy out of the pen.

  I do use it for the draft but again it is just to get some separation between guys so I am not wasting time looking at guys with great stamina and control but splits in the 20's and so I don't have to search for the good RP with a total rating of 64 but great control and splits. I then can spend more time looking at all the numbers.
6/10/2013 11:23 AM (edited)
I've heard a few things regarding pitches.

1) A high PC catcher is needed to make P4 and P5 truly effective

2) Guys with pitches under 30 or so actually have those pitches hurt their numbers because it's such an ineffective pitch when used.

How much truth to these?
6/10/2013 11:27 AM
1.  No truth to it, IMO.
2.  Tough to tell but, when the occassional pitcher gets a DITR and his 35 rated pitch goes to 31, it makes me believe that a pitch below 36, at least, doesn't help.
6/10/2013 11:43 AM
As a starter, take a recently completed league and list your pitchers, in order, by whatever stat you deem important.    I tend to look at OAV, ERA and WHIP in no particular order.  I know the low control guys that no one wants will have a higher WHIP and that the low GB pitchers will have a higher ERA than expected.   Then look at what they have in common ratings-wise.    Something will always stand out.   Give that the most weight and work from there.

I stumbled across Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Max Lopez because of my formula.   I needed a LH RP.   Because I don't have control weighted at 2 and splits/pitches at 1, he looked intriguing.   I figured he'd have a below league average OAV/ERA and above WHIP.   So far, so good.  
6/10/2013 12:18 PM
My in the head, split second calculation says that guy will probably sit near a career 5.00 ERA mark, mainly composed of very good and then very bad outings.  Who needs formula's?  If you have a question just ask me.
6/10/2013 6:59 PM
On my team, it will be closer to 4.   Your head is broken.
6/10/2013 9:19 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/10/2013 11:43:00 AM (view original):
1.  No truth to it, IMO.
2.  Tough to tell but, when the occassional pitcher gets a DITR and his 35 rated pitch goes to 31, it makes me believe that a pitch below 36, at least, doesn't help.
I just had a ditr bump on a pitcher and his 5th pitch went from 30 to 35.
6/11/2013 3:10 PM
I'd always thought the bottom was 30 but I think it was tec that had the 35 drop to 31.  However, next bump moved it back up.
6/11/2013 3:28 PM
I like the idea of putting SP and RP into separate groups, because that has always thrown me off in my calcs when trying to compare 2P, 3P, and 4P guys (thanks Mike). 

I constantly tweak my formulas either based on actual performance by elite players (or crappy performances by terrible players) and also the eyeball test.  If I see a guy rated highly in my formula that has a control of 35, then I know something needs to be tweaked.  I end up actually penalizing players for having certain ratings below a threshold (like under 55 for control) so that they have less of a chance of a high end score because low control is a dealbreaker for me.  Likewise for having a vsR split below 55. 

6/14/2013 1:09 PM
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