Strength of Schedule Topic

kaniac
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Regular Season Strength of Schedule:                
Team Easiest H1 Hardest H1 Easiest Middle Hardest Middle Easiest H2 Hardest H2 Easiest Overall Hardest Overall Average
Arizona Cardinals                  
Baltimore Ravens       8.00       8.63  
Buffalo Bills           6.75     1st 1/2
Chicago Bears                 14.75
Cincinnati Bengals                  
Dallas Cowboys 18.63                
Detroit Lions                  
Green Bay Packers             15.88   mid 1/2
Indianapolis Colts                 10.00
Kansas City Chiefs                  
Miami Dolphins                  
New England Patriots                  
New York Giants                  
New York Jets                 2nd 1/2
Oakland Raiders   8.88             13.75
Philadelphia Eagles                  
Pittsburgh Steelers                  
San Diego Chargers                  
San Francisco 49ers                  
Seattle Seahawks     16.63   19.00   15.88   season
St. Louis Rams                 14.75
Tampa Bay Buccaneers                  
Tennessee Oilers                  
Washington Redskins                  


When I do my smoke and mirrors predictions in the preseason, I add up the WIS ratings for the categories and then order the teams based on best to worst, After summing these ratings for a bunch of categories I can then rank the teams in total by summing the sums. Not foolproof, but somebody has to stick their neck out.

After the league is formed and a schedule is created I can make another ridiculous set of assumptions based on head to head games. For instance I would expect the #1 ranked team to beat the #24 ranked team, the #7 ranked team to beat the #12 ranked team etc.  For Miami this season, the sum of my offensive/defensive stats ranks me at 13th, meaning I should lose to every team rated 12 or better and beat every team rated 14 or lower. If I did that I would actually end up 8-8 this season. Of course, that would mean the #1 team would always be 16-0 and the worst team would always be 0-16, neither of which normally occurs. These predictions would also apply to Preseason games where Miami was expected to beat the #21 and #24 teams and lose to the #1 and #8 teams, yet I went 4-0. Some teams experiment in the preseason games so the results can be discounted, but assuming most teams are trying to win in the regular season the data would be more reliable.

The chart above is about the average ranking of the opponents for each team. Miami's opponents are ranked #6,9,5,18,23,16,15,12,17,7,5,18,20,2,15,3  which averages 11.94. Miami has a pretty average schedule therefore, but some teams play a lot of top teams (hard schedule with low number) and some teams play a lot of potential cellar dwellers.

The colums are for the first 8 games, games 5-12, the last 8 games, the overall season and the average of all teams strength of schedule.
6/2/2013 4:56 PM (edited)
kaniac
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This chart shows how each team did in preseason given the team rankings I had come up with. Not much was expected of Dallas, San Fran or St Louis for example and Tenn was expected to win all 4.
Actual Preseason Performance vs Expected  
Team Better On Target Worse
Arizona Cardinals     00 - 04
Baltimore Ravens   03 - 01  
Buffalo Bills 03 - 01    
Chicago Bears   00 - 04  
Cincinnati Bengals     02 - 02
Dallas Cowboys 01 - 03    
Detroit Lions   00 - 04  
Green Bay Packers     02 - 02
Indianapolis Colts     01 - 03
Kansas City Chiefs   03 - 01  
Miami Dolphins 04 - 00    
New England Patriots     01 - 03
New York Giants   02 - 02  
New York Jets   02 - 02  
Oakland Raiders 03 - 01    
Philadelphia Eagles 02 - 02    
Pittsburgh Steelers 04 - 00    
San Diego Chargers 04 - 00    
San Francisco 49ers 01 - 03    
Seattle Seahawks     02 - 02
St. Louis Rams 01 - 03    
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 03 - 01    
Tennessee Oilers     03 - 01
Washington Redskins     00 - 04
6/2/2013 5:03 PM
kaniac
Posts: 486 (0)
Hall of Famer
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Prospect
Here is where we stand after the first few games. I'll update later, just for fun.
Regular Preseason Performance vs Expected  
Team Better On Target Worse
Arizona Cardinals     00 - 03
Baltimore Ravens 02 - 01    
Buffalo Bills 02 - 01    
Chicago Bears 01 - 02    
Cincinnati Bengals     02 - 01
Dallas Cowboys   01 - 02  
Detroit Lions 01 - 02    
Green Bay Packers     02 - 01
Indianapolis Colts     02 - 01
Kansas City Chiefs     01 - 02
Miami Dolphins 01 - 02    
New England Patriots     02 - 01
New York Giants   03 - 00  
New York Jets     00 - 03
Oakland Raiders 01 - 02    
Philadelphia Eagles     01 - 02
Pittsburgh Steelers     01 - 02
San Diego Chargers 03 - 00    
San Francisco 49ers 02 - 01    
Seattle Seahawks   02 - 01  
St. Louis Rams 02 - 01    
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 03 - 00    
Tennessee Oilers     00 - 03
Washington Redskins     00 - 03
6/2/2013 5:08 PM
Strength of Schedule Topic
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