Today's pm1 game (Friday) is game 7 of the LCS between my 1970 Mets and the LA team that won the West Division, in a progressive league - number 105082.

The best pitcher in the league this year is the guy my opponent quite understandably is having pitch game 7: Wayne Simpson (don't ask me). Simpson went 23-3 with a 2.09 ERA and shut us out in game 3.

But I have a fatigue question: Simpson, in 1970 is listed as having 176 IP in RL and with the 10% allowance by WIS that should come to 194 rounding up.  Yet he has pitched 224 innings in this league this season, plus a postseason game - I know that we get proportional increases in IP to get through the postseason, but only that, not more and fatigue keeps working in the playoffs. 

How is it possible that he was still at 100% in game 3 ? He should be 31 innings over - or a little overe 16% over his increased allowed IP?

He did often have low pitch counts early in the season, but then had plenty that were 100 +  and he went 98 pitches against us in game 3.

I gather the answer is pitches thrown, but assuming a rough average of 15 pitches for an inning is not amazingly improved upon in his case, I don't see how he makes up a different of 31 innings over his RL total and stays at 100%.

I don't mean to be petty here, to win we should have to beat the other team's best, but I had to leave my bullpen exposed to use my 5.5IP/G low IP closer Luis Tiant in game 5. If there is something brilliant to learn about how to use a pitcher like Simpson and turn him into Sandy Koufax 1965,  Bob Gibson 1968, Doc Gooden 1985 and Ron Guidry 1978  then it would be good to know after presumably having my hard hitting team get 2-hit and shutout in game 7. 

Here are Simpson's season records:

 http://www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/playerprofile.asp?ID=35921370&pl=True&type=1

I've noticed that good pitchers seem to be able to throw more innings in progressives than in other leagues... 

I suspect the sim assumes pitch counts based on expected quality of competition... and progressives can have greater salaries than the actual level of competition due to both the extremely limited player pool, and the fact that teams may overstock IPs and PAs they don't need because a player sucks now and is better down the road... but then, I also play in many uncapped leagues other than progressives (such as pick six, some juice leagues, etc.) where you can stick full time players on the bench and SPs at mop-up, and don't notice this phenomenon.

A hypothesis that I do not have confidence in, that, but all I can come up with at the moment.

I would guess it is a combination of two things.  First, the pitch count issue you identified: IPs don't matter, pitches do, and he may have thrown some low PC games that slightly skewed his IPs upwards.  Second, I believe that in addition to the 10% bump you get in-season there is another bump for post-season play: as pitch allocation is based on a 162 game schedule, the Sim gives players extra pitches (at bats for hitters) so they don't get penalized for making the playoffs.  These two factors may account for Simpson's 16% overage.

According to the profile you linked, he threw 3138 regular season pitches in 224 innings.

According to the pitch count formula he was allotted 3,038 + 10 percent, just over 3300 pitches. So he actually brought some EXTRA pitches into the post-season, and he does get a bump for the post-season.

Looked at another way, he's allocated 17.26 pitches per inning and in the sim he threw 14.01.  That's why he got to 224 innings.

It's common against weaker competition (like single-season progressives) for guys to go way over their RL IP/162.

Thanks both of you - I had understood the PC formula to be between 15 and 16 pitches an inning - it is 17.24 ? 

Anyway, we lost the game but by 10-7 so at least it was not a shutout and we cut a big lead to 8-7 before going down. No World Series in 1970 anyway. 


Oh, no I just got it - 15.67 - or 15 and 2/3 pitches plus 10% or 1.567 = 17.24 - so it is 15.67 pitches per inning plus 10% or it is 17.24 including the 10%. 

Ok, thanks. 

ps:  

rats !  (not you guys - the Charlie Brown expression of dismay).

Posted by italyprof on 6/14/2013 3:16:00 PM (view original):
Thanks both of you - I had understood the PC formula to be between 15 and 16 pitches an inning - it is 17.24 ? 

Anyway, we lost the game but by 10-7 so at least it was not a shutout and we cut a big lead to 8-7 before going down. No World Series in 1970 anyway. 


Oh, no I just got it - 15.67 - or 15 and 2/3 pitches plus 10% or 1.567 = 17.24 - so it is 15.67 pitches per inning plus 10% or it is 17.24 including the 10%. 

Ok, thanks. 

I think you're double counting.

He should be able to throw 194 innings, using 17.22 pitches in each of those 194 innings. The pitches per inning number is completely independant of the 10% bonus. So if WIS came out and said they were doing away with the 10% bonus, he would still be allotted 17.22 pitches per inning.

elbirdo's old pitch count formula gives him 3038 pitches for a full season.  The formula isn't perfect, but it gets you close and makes for a good estimate.  The formula already accounts for the 10% bonus though, so I think jfranco's calculation is off a bit.  It sounds like Simpson used very close to, maybe just slightly over, his season pitch count during the regular season. 

I don't know what kind of additional allotment is afforded pitchers for the playoffs, but it seems that since Simpson used up around 100% of his regular season pitches that he pitched the playoffs entirely on the playoff allotment.  So depending on his usage in the playoffs, he may have had plenty of pitches left and that could explain why he would come back at 100% when it may not seem like he should.

Posted by jfranco77 on 6/14/2013 2:07:00 PM (view original):
According to the profile you linked, he threw 3138 regular season pitches in 224 innings.

According to the pitch count formula he was allotted 3,038 + 10 percent, just over 3300 pitches. So he actually brought some EXTRA pitches into the post-season, and he does get a bump for the post-season.

Looked at another way, he's allocated 17.26 pitches per inning and in the sim he threw 14.01.  That's why he got to 224 innings.

It's common against weaker competition (like single-season progressives) for guys to go way over their RL IP/162.

I think the last line is really the most telling here, if you look around that particular league we are in, there are many other examples of guys going well over their RL innings, heck, the other team in the world series is another good example. Single season progressives have always been leagues were it has been easier to stretch a pitcher considerably beyond the pure innings #, because they seem to always have a lower P/IP measure than normal theme or open leagues.

either way, twas a great series, and next season you can draft the magical Wayne Simpson....since i cut him after 1 year (there's loyalty for ya)