I'll try my best to explain here. Also, sorry for the delay.
Keith Hawkins takes the snap and drops back to pass. [Pass Defense - long cover]
[STEP:1 LOC:InsideLine ACT:Passing]
[LINE: ins:79-76 str:79-74 agi:60-54 (0.2/-0.2) (So: As I understand: 1st # is Off, 2nd# is Def.) ?Why can't these be lumped together in one? ?If manpower advantage is present - combine that into the one #?
The last numbers in that list (0.2/-0.2) that is the advantage of the line on the inside and on the outside. That is the Manpower advantage number.
ADV:Equal/Equal RESULT:EqualBlocking/DefenseModerate ] ?How is it that defense is moderate with those results?
The majority of the time, the results will go according to the line numbers, but given the randomness of each play and the general equality of the two teams the play of the line can vary. This is DefenseModerate because on this specific play one of the defensive players got a jump on one of the linemen and put pressure on the QB.
The defense has heavy pressure on Hawkins. ?With those fairly equal to offense advantage does heavy pressure happen?
[STEP:2 LOC:InsideLine ACT:Passing]
[LINE: ins:80-77 str:81-74 agi:55-53 (0.2/-0.2) ADV:Equal/Equal RESULT:EqualBlocking/EqualBlocking ](Numbers would indicate equal line play - stalemate)
[PASSThrow: Loc:OutsideShort (2) Open:Open Pressure:NotSet Throw:OnTarget ]?Heavy pressure in step 1 - where did that go?
We are not looking at the pressure on the QB here, this is the pressure on the PASS. The pass is open. the Heavy pressure is what made the QB checkdown to an outlet short pass and throw the ball in step 2 of the progression.
Hawkins throws to Hankins (Sims) at the SFA 39 (short). Hankins makes the catch. (Yea Hankins!) ?What about match-up #'s for Hankins and Sims?
[STEP:3 LOC:OutsideShort ACT:Receiving]
These matchup numers are not printed, that's a good point, we can add more detail on this. The bigger factor here is that the pass is very short yardage, high percentage throw.
[BLOCK: 0-57 (-0.1) ADV:Disadvantage RESULT:DefenseModerate ](No blocking on Sims, but is he still in the play?)
[TKLATT: No Tackle Attempt ] ?What happened to Sims? (We should see broken tackle at least)
In Step 2 the receiver is said to have been open, this means that he shook Sims in this play and was open. Sims was the cover man, but he was not in position to make the tackle.
[STEP:4 LOC:Medium ACT:Receiving]
[BLOCK: 60-53 (-0.7) ADV:Disadvantage RESULT:DefenseModerate ](Again we see Off with high number but Def advantage - roll the -0.7 player advantage into the number)
?This seems a bit suspect. I plan on looking into the advantage of the lines and how that number is calculated. There stands a small chance that this was a terrible roll and the DEF got lucky, but it's one that deserves a second look.
[TKLATT: 75-60 (0) BLKResult:DefenseModerate ADV:SlightDisadvantage MOM:0 RESULT:TackleAvoided ]
Roland Hayes can't get his hands on Hankins. ?Comparison # for Hayes vs Hankins? ?With a 75-60 advantage why does DEF Moderate occur - and if defense is Moderate why does tackle avoided occur?
This really depends on the positioning of Hankins more than the raw numbers. If hankins was not in the right position to tackle then he misses this tackle
The better question here is that he is not in position despite the defense advantage. I can't explain this thoroughly right now. It will get a deeper investigation.
[STEP:5 LOC:Long ACT:Receiving]
[BLOCK: 51-56 (-0.3) ADV:GreatDisadvantage RESULT:DefenseStrong ] (51 to 56 is <10% should be closer to equal not GREAT disadvantage and who is blocking whom)
Best answer, Randomness. I know it seems simplistic, but on a single play each comparison rolls the random number is created for each comparison.
[TKLATT: 76-60 (-1) BLKResult:DefenseStrong ADV:GreatDisadvantage MOM:1 RESULT:GoodTackleAttempt ] (Followed by 76 to 60 on attempted tackle by ? with strong defense?)
[TACKLE: 76-55 (-1) MOM:1 ATTResult:GoodTackleAttempt ADV:SlightAdvantage RESULT:GoodTackle ](Now the advantage is 76 to 55 for OFF, but tackle occurs?)
I'll look into. Seems fishy from the numbers but the result seems fair. I'd guess that the raw advantage numbers aren't the only factors in this part of the play.
Hankins is tackled by Mark Wilson at the UNH 47. 16 yards on the play
I hope this helps some.