All Forums > Hardball Dynasty Baseball > Hardball Dynasty > Who do I take in the draft?
6/24/2013 9:10 AM
14 College / 11 HS.  First two are from a college player.  Second two are from HS.  

I am leaning towards this first player.  

General & Fielding Ratings
Event Season Height Weight OV RA GL AS AA PC DU HE SP PA TP MK
Current - 5-10 168 72 66 61 76 63 7 78 85 78 26 13 75
Projected - 6-0 183 97 76 81 86 92 7 96 94 78 39 7 86
Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event Season CN PW LH RH BE BR BU PP ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Current - 61 63 52 57 70 52 36 50 23 0 0 0 18 23 55 0 0 0 0
Projected - 89 80 77 80 77 71 50 56 23 0 5 0 23 25 70 0 0 0 0


College pitcher
General & Fielding Ratings
Event Season Height Weight OV RA GL AS AA PC DU HE SP PA TP MK
Current - 6-2 196 64 21 5 47 43 45 22 63 36 77 55 48
Projected - 6-2 208 83 23 5 57 51 68 24 68 41 93 55 55
Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event Season CN PW LH RH BE BR BU PP ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Current - 12 9 17 20 21 8 60 72 75 62 66 69 77 61 59 56 28 43 32
Projected - 23 9 27 26 21 12 86 78 89 81 92 88 93 73 68 70 40 44 33

HS Pitcher
General & Fielding Ratings
Event Season Height Weight OV RA GL AS AA PC DU HE SP PA TP MK
Current - 6-0 216 60 39 8 81 48 0 27 92 42 28 15 84
Projected - 6-0 231 88 50 15 100 91 1 30 100 44 44 13 95
Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event Season CN PW LH RH BE BR BU PP ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Current - 8 6 20 10 14 9 55 59 61 65 47 56 69 61 61 61 35 0 0
Projected - 12 6 36 23 18 9 90 67 77 96 75 88 79 79 77 82 52 0 0


HS Pitcher #2
General & Fielding Ratings
Event Season Height Weight OV RA GL AS AA PC DU HE SP PA TP MK
Current - 6-0 199 55 32 14 44 58 0 25 91 61 33 2 92
Projected - 6-1 217 88 40 22 60 95 0 36 100 61 49 2 92
Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event Season CN PW LH RH BE BR BU PP ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Current - 13 5 20 14 20 14 38 56 57 56 47 51 68 35 76 58 31 36 30
Projected - 13 5 28 28 20 21 53 54 83 81 82 84 80 39 100 70 46 64 55
 
6/25/2013 11:06 AM

The college pitcher has such grat splits that if he only had a 3rd pitch he would be your guy....but I"m passing on him because of his scraggly pitches 3-5.

The two HS pitchers are very nice....and basically (IMHO) a "pick-em" proposition.  It's hard to tell who's better, especially with the $11M HS Scouting.  They both have about the same growth needed to hit their very nice projections.  I love the PItch #1 of the 2nd guy, but I have a very had time passing up a guy with 96 Control and 88 vR split and decent (or better) pitches.  Both have high Makeup and lots of Durability.  I would take the 1st HS pitcher over the 2nd just because I think Control in the high 90's is a something that the SIM really likes.

The hitter is a very reliable projection.  He'as a terrific 3B who will play everyday with that great Durability.  Oh, he can hit.  I would say he's something like
.305-.370-.520.  That will do.  You didn't say how old he is (I'm guessing 21 or 22 because he doesn't have very far to go to hit projections), but I'm not sure it makes much difference in him.  He will get to projections...or very close. 

He's nice.  I have a hard time not favoring Arms over Bats in the Draft.  Since there isn't much difference in your Scouting $ spent, I think I would take #3.  But #1 would be a great 8 year bat for you.  #3 is probably a 12-year+ very effective MLB pitcher, if it makes a difference. But then so are the other two pitchers!

6/25/2013 11:13 AM
Thanks for the response.  The hitter is 20 years old.  Yeah, I am leaning towards the first HS pitcher now.  
6/25/2013 10:35 PM
I'm not sure about that, with $11M spent on HS scouting I think what you get will be much different and my concern would be not in a good way. While I too prefer arms over bats, with these budget numbers I'll go for the bat.
6/26/2013 12:24 PM
Would need ages for each to decide.. I'd probably go with the HS SP #1, his starting out OVR is 60 which is pretty high for an 18yr old SP..  You can pretty much guess that an 18yr old top SP prospect will increase 25-30 points in Control, vsL, vsR.. The three pitches will increase 10-15/10-15/20
6/26/2013 12:50 PM
The two college players are 20.  The two HS players are 18.  
6/26/2013 1:12 PM
Hi dawg-

I agree with much of what moe said above, but I think I would go with HS pitcher #1 over the batter.  I don't know what the trade market is like in your world, but in my world that pitcher could command a couple prospects the caliber of that 3B kid.  I'd take a perennial Cy Young contender over a perennial MVP candidate every time.  

HOWEVER, for ordering these prospects, I'd then put the college batter above both the college pitcher and HS pitcher #2, for the following:

College SP has lower makeup/health than I would be comfortable betting on.  The guy's 'stuff' and character suggest he could anchor your rotation and stay with your team his whole career, provided he stays off the DL.  I'd rather have the much more solid bet in the 3B kid.  

HS pitcher #2 has a couple key unrealistic projections, starting with the DUR.  Starting at 25, his DUR ceiling is 28 or 29, definitely not 36.  His projected STA has the same trouble.  Starting at 57, I'd expect him to hit maybe 70, not mid-80s.  There's no reason to doubt his 'stuff,' since those projections look realistic, but he won't be an inning eater.  And besides, you have better college scouting, so this kid's projections aren't as confident as the 3B's anyway.  

Good luck-
6/26/2013 4:42 PM
My thinking is that with an $11M budget the ratings for the HS players are less accurate than the college.  At $14M I wouldn't be real comfortable basing decisions on the college ratings either but it's still better than the HS budget.
6/26/2013 6:10 PM
HS #1 is a no brainer pick here..
6/26/2013 7:23 PM
I find that 3 pitch starters always seem to underperform. HS 1 has low pitchers as well. I'd probably lean towards HS 2

Is the batter rh, lh or switch hitter? If he's a switch hitter, a gold glove 3b who plays every day and bats in the middle of the order is very good to have.
6/26/2013 8:56 PM
He is a switch hitter.
6/26/2013 11:38 PM
77-82-52 is low?
6/27/2013 7:50 AM
Take the hitter.  He is a 5-tool player with solid defensive skills.  He'll hit 30+ HRS, 100+ RBI, and steal 20 bases.  

The college pitcher has the potential to end up with good control, great splits, but --terrible-- pitches.  He'll end up an SP3, with an ERA in a neutral ballpark of 3.80-4.20.
The first HS player is the best pitcher, but the three pitches will limit him.  He's likely to end up with mid 80's control and splits about 70/75.  He'll be a solid SP2, but a stretch as an SP1.  Imagine lifetime ERA of 3.50-3.70.
The second HS pitcher will have decent control (75-80) and decent splits (each one hovering around 70), but his pitches aren't that good.  He's an SP2-SP3.  In a neutral ballpark, I'd expect a lifetime ERA 3.70-4.00.

Take the hitter!  Ten years of all-star play!  And if he's a switch hitter, add 10-20% to the expectations!  Just do it!


6/27/2013 11:21 AM
Posted by jptrainwreck on 6/26/2013 7:23:00 PM (view original):
I find that 3 pitch starters always seem to underperform. HS 1 has low pitchers as well. I'd probably lean towards HS 2

Is the batter rh, lh or switch hitter? If he's a switch hitter, a gold glove 3b who plays every day and bats in the middle of the order is very good to have.
I wonder about the 3 pitch starters too.  But if you had a 80/70/65/33/39 guy and a 80/70/65 , wouldn't the three pitch guy be better simply because he's not using those two low pitches?
6/27/2013 6:07 PM
Hey Mssr Ersberg-

I'm kind of skeptical of the conventional wisdom on the msg boards consistently ragging on 3 pitch pitchers, but there's 1 thing that seems pretty clear from the Dev Chats, etc: the sim does not simulate pitch-by-pitch, so no single pitch rating ever gets isolated.  Pitcher A will not specifically throw a 33-rated #4 pitch.  Judging by player ratings, it's clear that having a 16 rating for the 5th pitch subtracts value.  (I've had 27 y.o. pitchers who mysteriously get projected to add a 5th pitch at 16, and their projected overall drops as a result, all other factors remaining equal.) 

So for your hypothetical comparison of pitchers, the 5 pitch guy might be better in the Sim, provided those last 2 pitches (4 and 5) are above the unknown threshold at which they add value.  I don't know what the thresholds for each pitch are.  I have a formula I use, but it's my own guesswork

I think it would make more sense if the Sim did go pitch-by-pitch, so I'd welcome hearing that I've got this backward or something.  But I also suspect it would be a nightmare to program the Sim at that level of detail. 
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