1st Round
I’m going to make this one a little shorter than I planned. I spent too much time putting the preview together. I’ll be putting more into the following rounds.
NORTH
Pretty solid region from top to bottom (minus sim controlled La Verne… and they’re actually not that bad). I wouldn’t say there’s any clear cut favorite in this region. I really believe this region could be won by any of the top 5 seeds. It’s going to be a tough road for Whitworth or Maine Maritime to survive three rounds here. This group should produce some exciting matchups though. Anyway, here’s the game breakdowns.
Whittier vs. Maine Maritime
Look for QB Robert Delgado to pass the ball around a lot, and the Whittier defense to get after the opposing QB. Maine Maritime is going to need a complete game on both sides of the ball to pull off the upset.
Keys to the game for Whittier: Get an early lead and don’t let Maine Maritime to keep it close. Force MM to play catchup.
Keys to the game for Maine Maritime: Control the clock. Keep the game low scoring and allow the offense to be balanced. Don’t allow the opposing offense to get rolling.
Prediction: Whittier over Maine Maritime 36-14
Mount Union vs. La Verne
Don’t expect an upset here. SimAI’s don’t traditionally fare too well come playoff time. We’ll see you in the next round Mount Union
Keys to the game for Mount Union: Status quo. Don’t get beat by a sim. But seriously, stop the run and jam the ball down the oppositions throat with RB Patrick Rose and his 1,625 yards.
Keys to the game for La Verne: Huge rushing game by RB Eddie Morrow…… and a miracle.
Prediction: Mount Union over La Verne 42-10
Colorado vs. Whitworth
This is an interesting matchup. The ratings show Colorado as the clear favorite, but I have the feeling that Whitworth will be able to make a game of it. Their defense is going to have to step up if I’m going to be right on this one.
Keys to the game for Colorado: Shut down the running game and make the opponent one dimensional. Force the pass, rush the QB and produce turnovers. The offense is going to put points on the board. Don’t let the other team to keep up.
Keys to the game for Whitworth: Just like Maine Maritime. Control the clock, and keep the score low. Don’t allow QB Jeff Clemons to have freedom in the pocket. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, so DL Michael Rodriguez will have to add to his team leading 9 sacks and put pressure on Clemons.
Prediction: Colorado over Whitworth 37-24
Washington (MO) vs. Benedictine
This is another interesting matchup. Washington (MO) is 14-0, but with a weak schedule. Was it a result of their schedule, or are they for real. I can say this much, lotsabooze knows his team (nice name by the way). Very strong running game to complement a strong defense. Might end up being low scoring due to both teams having strong and stingy defenses. Benedictine is looking to get out of the first round for the first time after winning their conference 3 out of the last 4 seasons.
Keys to the game for Washington (MO): Pound the rock and win the turnover battle.
Keys to the game for Benedictine: Take care of the ball. Get the early lead, and don’t allow the score to be close late.
Prediction: Benedictine over Washington (MO) 28-24 (I don’t like predicting my own game… kinda feel a little biased)
SOUTH
This is the strongest region overall according to the ratings. Also, this region is the home of the reigning National Champions in Concordia (WI). There shouldn’t be any gimmes in this group with the only team rating below 52 is Oberlin at 51.94. Union (NY) is looking for that statement playoff run that solidifies their place as a yearly powerhouse, and they won’t have any room for mistakes from the first round and on.
Union (NY) vs. St. Thomas
Of all the first round 1 vs 8 matchups this one looks like that best chance for an upset. St. Thomas is a tough draw for a #1 seed. Union (NY) doesn’t average a lot of point, but don’t let that fool you, they have an offense that is capable of putting points on the board. St. Thomas on the other hand does put a lot of points on the board, and they’re not afraid to toss the pigskin around all day long. Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire.
Keys to the game for Union (NY): Don’t let QB Mark Hoskins to put the ball in the end zone. Force FG’s not TD’s. Let RB David Ball carry the load on offense, and be productive in the redzone.
Keys to the game for St. Thomas: Score early score often. Force Union (NY) to pass the ball.
Prediction: Union (NY) over St. Thomas 28-26
Wisconsin-Platteville vs. Washington & Jefferson
This is another close matchup that could go either way. It seems like a lifetime ago that Wisconsin-Platteville went to back to back title games. We’ll see if they’re up for the challenge of getting back there. Chuckie2 has his Washington & Jefferson squad built for a run, and could end up being a near future powerhouse. This game looks like a potential barnburner with a ton of yards and points.
Keys to the game for Wisconsin-Platteville: Score a ton of points and just let QB Franklin Moore do his thing.
Keys to the game for Washington & Jefferson: INT’s, if they can get 2 or 3 of them and not give any away then they should win the game.
Prediction: Wisconsin-Platteville over Washington & Jefferson 44-39 (after looking at this one closer I wanted to pick the upset, but I already predicted Wisconsin-Platteville going to the regional finals)
Linfield vs. Guilford
Kcwallace has been at Linfield for 52 seasons and has another one of his traditional Championship caliber teams. Bugeater50 has been at Guilford for 1 season, and has his own Championship caliber team. I would say that this is one of the best first round matchups this season. Both teams put up points in bunches. The only difference is on defense where Guilford is a little stronger (especially against the pass with 8.6 pass avg against) and gives up 6 fewer points per game.
Keys to the game for Linfield: Run the ball a little more than they normally do. Don’t let Guilford build the early lead.
Keys to the game for Guilford: Make the game a shootout, and let the defense win the game.
Prediction: Guilford over Linfield 32-24
Oberlin vs. Concordia (WI)
This game is ripe for an upset. It’s only really an upset by according to the seeds. Concordia (WI) is the clear favorite here, and that’s not a knock on Oberlin. In any other region Oberlin would have a good chance of making a run, but I just don’t see the defending champs going down here. However, Oberlin is 14-0 and bigger upsets have happened.
Keys to the game for Oberlin: Come out with a strong defensive game plan. Keep Concordia (WI) out of the end zone, and don’t give up turnovers.
Keys to the game for Concordia (WI): Pass the ball with QB Michael Williams ( 41 TD to 4 INT ratio), and his elite WR corps. Defense needs to step up and play more consistently.
Prediction: Concordia (WI) over Oberlin 35-17
EAST
This region would be the strongest if not for two teams from top to bottom if not for the bottom being well below the average playoff team. I could see 5 maybe 6 different teams from this region making a run and winning this whole thing. Time will only tell. Everyone should just be looking at making it past the first game. Unfortunately, they won’t all be playing past tomorrow.
St. Olaf vs. Bridgewater St.
This one is probably the least inspiring 1 vs. 8 matchup this season. It’s going to be tough for Bridgewater St. to muster up a W in this one. St. Olaf is coming off their 2nd undefeated regular season in the last 5 years, and is poised to make a deep run.
Keys to the game for St. Olaf: They need to remain balanced on offense and stingy on defense.
Keys to the game for Bridgewater St.: Find any way to put points on the board, and take care of the ball.
Prediction: St. Olaf over Bridgewater St. 27-7
Loras vs. Huntingdon
This is my favorite matchup of the entire first round. Two traditional powerhouses that within the last couple seasons lost their longtime coaches. Which (still new to their teams) coaches will prove to be better for the job.
Keys to the game for Loras: Control the game with that incredibly tough defense (6.9 ppg against).
Keys to the game for Huntingdon: QB Douglas Haines has to have a big game if they are going to come out on top.
Prediction: Loras over Huntingdon 32-31
Susquehanna vs. Waynesburg
Susquehanna is an under the radar team that has the talent to easily make their way through this region. Tough draw for Waynesburg, who would be the favorite against most teams. Waynesburg’s defense is going to have to step up and keep the game close because their offense is going to find it tough to put points on the board against Susquehanna.
Keys to the game for Susquehanna: Don’t be overly aggressive on offense. They’ll get their points, but don’t let QB Justin Jacobs throw the game away.
Keys to the game for Waynesburg: Score early, and run the clock off. Don’t let Susquehanna build a lead.
Prediction: Susquehanna over Waynesburg 29-13
Gettysburg vs. New Jersey
Not exactly your traditional 4 vs. 5 matchup. Unfortunately for New Jersey, they appear to be overmatched in this one (at least according to the ratings). I wouldn’t be too surprised if New Jersey is able keep this one close though. This is the playoff debut for delfubar, and he gets a trial by fire in the first round. He’s already proven that he can make the upset happen with the Conference Championship game victory over Huntingdon.
Keys to the game for Gettysburg: Let RB Thomas Murphy continue to run like a mad man (3,319 yds 21 tds)
Keys to the game for New Jersey: Score when you get the chance. All out run defense.
Prediction: Gettysburg over New Jersey 40-21
WEST
This is a well balanced region, but has the highest rated team in DIII with Austin. Ferrum and Defiance are looking to make Austin’s road to another title a difficult one. Beyond those three teams, there are still some other teams that could come out of this region. That’s just how well balanced, and strong the West is.
Ferrum vs. Bluffton
Look for Ferrum to get their high powered offense rolling and QB Carl Johnson to add to his 56 TD’s on the season. Bluffton’s defense is the wildcard here. With a low rating they are still producing around 3 TO’s per game. The question is, if Bluffton wins the TO battle will it be enough to get them to pull off the big upset.
Keys to the game for Ferrum: Don’t settle for field goals, and put the game out of reach early
Keys to the game for Bluffton: Two words…. D…. fence…. Gonna need a lot of it to withstand Ferrums offense.
Prediction: Ferrum over Bluffton 44-20
Defiance vs. Coast Guard
Bad news for Coast Guard. According to the ratings, this is the second most lopsided matchup of the first round. Once again, anything can happen. My money is on Defiance on this one though
Keys to the game for Defiance: Balanced game plan on offense and defense.
Keys to the game for Coast Guard: Allow QB Keith Kerr to air it out, and hope for the game of his life. That, and some consistency on defense would help.
Prediction: Defiance over Coast Guard 37-10
King’s vs. Austin
Speaking of lopsided matchups, this is the most lopsided according to the ratings. How does Austin go undefeated and have the highest rated team in DIII and get a 6 seed. Must be that 226 ranked SOS. I don’t think that’s going to help King’s out here though. King’s has a strong team, but they just ran up against a monster of a team in the first round.
Keys to the game for King’s: Find any way possible to slow down the opponents’ offense. They have to put points on the board anytime they get a chance.
Keys to the game for Austin: Stick to the game plan, and don’t let the King’s passing game to keep them in the game.
Prediction: Austin over King’s 50-24
Menlo vs. MIT
This should be a good matchup. Menlo has the edge on offense, while MIT has the edge on defense. Either way, I expect there to be a ton of points. Will Menlo’s freshman (and DIII Player of the year) QB Ramon Wilson carry Menlo to victory, or will he be rattled by MIT’s defense that gives up less than 10 ppg.
Keys to the game for Menlo: Take care of the ball, and don’t settle for FG’s.
Keys to the game for MIT: Put the opposing QB on his back, and force punts. Don’t forget to put points on the board. Menlo is going to get their points. Just make them work for it, and don’t give up easy TD’s.
Prediction: Menlo over MIT 34-28
Well, I just lied. I didn’t mean to put so much into this write up, but the words were just flowing off my fingertips. Lol. After the first round games I’ll post a first round analysis followed by second round breakdowns. I hope someone…. anyone… is enjoying this. Either way, I’ll keep this coming.
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First Round Review
NORTH
Cin_ben’s Picks: Whittier, Mount Union, Colorado, Benedictine
Results: Whittier, Mount Union, Whitworth, Benedictine
Cin_ben’s North record: 3-1
Whittier vs. Maine Maritime
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 36-14 Whittier
Final Score: 38-10 Whittier
Maine Maritime was able to keep the game low scoring and close in the first half, but they missed out on several chances to put points on the board. Three first half drives started on the opponents side of the 50 yard line for Maine Maritime. The result? Seven plays, 25 yards, two punts, and a fumble following a 20 yard play. They also missed on a crucial 35 yard FG. The second half was a different story as Whittier was able to get their offense going. In their first two possessions Whittier produced 151 yards and 14 points. The game was essentially over at that point.
Mount Union vs. La Verne
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 42-10 Mount Union
Final Score: 44-10 La Verne
The stat line was actually a lot closer than the final score. La Verne had only one less first down, 82 less yards, and only 1 more turnover than Mount Union. The major difference was the ability to finish drives. La Verne’s three longest drives ended with a missed 49 yard FG attempt, their only TD, and a fumble on the Mount Union 12 yard line that was picked up by MU’s Junior D-lineman Donald Cannon and returned for a TD. Patrick Rose had another monster day for Mount Union while racking up 208 rushing yards and carrying the load for his team in dominating fashion.
Colorado vs. Whitworth
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 37-24 Colorado
Final Score: 20-17 Whitworth
Whitworth played the perfect game to pull off the upset. They dominated ball possession with nearly 10 more minutes with the ball in their hands. They converted on 50% of 3rd downs (10/20) and 67% of 4th downs (2/3). They kept the game close and managed to put together an incredible 18 play 67 yard drive on their last possession to get the game winning TD as the clock ran out on Jerry Benson’s 1 yard scamper into the end zone. QB Gary Day was barely able to stop the clock with 1 second left with a spike to set up Benson’s TD. Colorado has to feel a little heartbroken after making the comeback only to have their defense let them down late. Overall, Colorado had a good game only giving up 4.8 yards per pass, and 2.5 against the rush. The D just didn’t get enough support from their offense. I will say that it doesn’t help the offense when you don’t have any drive that starts beyond their own 37 yard line. Great game with an exciting finish. Could end up being the closest game throughout the playoffs.
Washington (MO) vs. Benedictine
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 28-24 Benedictine
Final Score: 28-18 Benedictine
Not a whole lot of excitement in this one compared to the Colorado/Whitworth game. Washington (MO) was able to keep the game close in the first half after getting -7 yard sack for a safety on Kenneth Brooks. 14-8 halftime lead for Benedictine. Washington (MO) made a 3 point game late in the 3rd with John Greene hitting from an incredible 50 yards out. However, that would be as close as they would get. Benedictine would put the game away with back to back long drives producing 14 points off of an 80 yard drive and an 8 play 97 yard drive that ate up crucial minutes in the middle of the 4th QTR. Washington (MO) were able to get 7 more points, but there just wasn’t enough time left on the clock to really get back into the game
SOUTH
Cin_ben’s Picks: Union (NY), Wisconsin-Platteville, Guilford, Concordia (WI)
Results: Union (NY), Wisconsin-Platteville, Guilford, Concordia (WI)
Cin_ben’s South record: 4-0
Union (NY) vs. St. Thomas
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 28-26 Union (NY)
Final Score: 38-35 Union (NY)
This game very well could have produced a #8 upsetting a #1. It’s happened before, but not exactly common. What was it that cost St. Thomas on their upset bid? That’s probably the easiest question to answer in this game. 6 TO that Union (NY) turned into 17 point, and one missed FG. St. Thomas dominated the game beyond the TO battle, while outgaining Union (NY) 460 yards to 318 yards. They also converted on just under 75% of 3rd downs compared to Union (NY) with 50% conversion. On drives that started on their own side of the 50 yard line Union (NY) was only able to produce 2 TD’s while punting the ball 7 times. Coach ruplayer and his Union (NY) squad have to be a little concerned after this game, but they get a chance to redeem themselves and will be moving on to the next round.
Wisconsin-Platteville vs. Washington & Jefferson
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 44-39 Wisconsin-Platteville
Final Score: 44-21 Wisconsin-Platteville
This is another game that the stat line doesn’t really match up with the final score. Wisconsin-Platteville only outgained Washington & Jefferson by 26 yards. They both had the same number of penalties, 6 each, and Washington & Jefferson gave up 2 TO’s compared to Wisconsin-Platteville’s 1. The big difference was field position. Both teams were able to consistently put together decent drives. However, Washington & Jefferson only had 2 drives that started beyond their own 30 yard line compared to 7 drives starting beyond their own 30 yard line for Wisconsin-Platteville. It makes it a lot easier to score when you’re starting point is constantly closer to the end zone.
Linfield vs. Guilford
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 32-24 Guilford
Final Score: 26-21 Guilford
This was another close game that came down to the final drive. Unfortunately for Linfield, there just wasn’t enough time left on the clock to finish off their last minute drive after navigating from their own 23 down to the opponents 34 in the last 1:19. Linfield actually had the lead late in the 4th, until James Herbert connected with Roland Everett for Guilford to close out a 9 play 56 yard game winning drive. Both teams struggled to take care of the ball in a somewhat sloppy game with 5 TO’s and 15 penalties for 131 yards combined. Bugeater50 will look to clean up the sloppy play in the next round as they move on.
Oberlin vs. Concordia (WI)
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 35-17 Concordia (WI)
Final Score: 49-19 Concordia (WI)
The game was over pretty quickly. Concordia (WI) got into the end zone on each of their first 5 possessions. Yes that’s right. 5 possessions, 1.5 quarters and the score was 35-6. The second half was a lot closer with Concordia (WI) winning the final 2 quarters 14-13, but it was too little too late for Oberlin. Warrior0510 will be looking to next season, and will try to get back to the playoffs again for his first back to back playoff appearances since seasons 87-88. I pretty sure they will be back as they are consistently a top team with at least 10 wins in each of the last 15 seasons.
EAST
Cin_ben’s Picks: St. Olaf, Loras, Susquehanna, Gettysburg
Results: St. Olaf, Loras, Waynesburg, New Jersey
Cin_ben’s East record: 2-2
St. Olaf vs. Bridgewater St.
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 27-7 St. Olaf
Final Score: 17-10 St. Olaf
I had this one as a low scoring game, and that was accurate, but this turned out to be a lot closer than I expected. Bridgewater St. dominated the running game with 233 yards on 57 carries compared to 74 yards on 25 carries for St. Olaf. However, Bridgewater St. gave up 235 yards on 10 pass completions while only picking up 91 yards on 9 completions. After a tight game in the first half with a score of 10-10, Bridgewater St. came out in the 3rd quarter and put together a drive that could have ended up leading them to victory. After starting on their own 36 yard line, they drove 8 plays for 59 yards, but came up short after fumbling the ball on the 5 yard line. That would prove to be the closest they would get to scoring for the rest of the game. St. Olaf took advantage late in the 3rd with Richard Lang connecting with Paul Hightower deep over the middle for a 76 yard TD. That would end up being the deciding play of the game as St. Olaf moves on.
Loras vs. Huntingdon
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 32-31 Loras
Final Score: 38-12 Loras
The matchup that pitted two historically successful teams turned out to be more lopsided that expected. Loras gained 2.4 more yards per pass and an additional 2.4 more yards per rush than Huntingdon. Even with Loras having this edge, Huntingdon was able to keep the game somewhat close until the 4th quarter. In the 4th, Loras scored on offense, defense and special teams while finishing the game on a 17-0 run. This one might have been a different story if Huntingdon didn’t turn the ball over 6 times including 3 INT’s in their final 4 possessions. Coachcrow will look to next season now as Huntingdon will try to get back to the playoffs where they’ve been for an unprecedented 24 straight seasons.
Susquehanna vs. Waynesburg
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 29-13 Susquehanna
Final Score: 16-13 Waynesburg
So much for being an under the radar team for Susquehanna. Waynesburg defense stepped up big time, and K David Carter were able to squeak out an extremely close and competitive game. Susquehanna thought they might have saved their season when they scored late in the 4th to tie the game up, but a strange series of events would follow that would end Susquehanna’s season. After the game was tied up, Waynesburg drove 60 yards on 5 plays only to have RB Kenneth Kirby cough the ball up on the 3 yard line. With 1:35 on the clock and 96 yard to go, most teams would just run the clock out to avoid possibly given up great field position with time to play. However, Susquehanna called a timeout after a sack on 1st down. Susquehanna would end up going 3 and out and only eating up 15 seconds off the clock. With the ball on the 4 yard line, P William Witt would punt out of his own end zone to the 45 yard line. After a 10 yard punt return, Waynesburg had the ball again on the opponents 35 with 1:11 remaining and 2 timeouts remaining. Waynesburg would run a handful of plays and convert a big 3rd and 10 that allowed them to run the clock down to 4 seconds. K David Carter would kick the game winning 20 yard field goal as time expired to end the game. Exciting game that has to be a tough one to take for the Susquehanna side.
Gettysburg vs. New Jersey
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 40-21 Gettysburg
Final Score: 25-22 New Jersey
Well, I have to eat my own words on this one. New Jersey came out and dominated the game while outgaining Gettysburg by nearly 150 yards. After getting an early TD, Gettysburg were not able to get back into the end zone. New Jersey won this field goal with tons of drama. Gettysburg thought they had the game won when they were able to take the lead with 1:39 remaining, but New Jersey had some fight left in them. After a 39 yard kick return by RB John Rossi, New Jersey would drive another 18 yards on 6 plays to set up the game timing FG as time expired. The teams would trade FG’s in the first 3 OT’s. The 4th OT would be a different story as Gettysburg came out and were only able to gain 1 yard on 3 plays and K Frank Zavala missed the 41 yard FG. This left the door open as New Jersey picked up 8 yards on 3 plays to set up K Gregory White’s game winning FG in 4 OT’s. New Jersey will look to continue to surprise as they move on.
WEST
Cin_ben’s Picks: Ferrum, Defiance, Austin, Menlo
Results: Ferrum, Defiance, Austin, Menlo
Cin_ben’s West record: 4-0
Ferrum vs. Bluffton
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 44-20 Ferrum
Final Score: 41-25 Ferrum
Once again, the stat line was close, but the final score was not. The two teams were only separated by a total of 7 yards on offense in Bluffton’s favor. Bluffton would only be done in by their 3 TO’s as Ferrum didn’t have any TO’s. Each half would see Bluffton turn the ball over on their first possession. Ferrum made them pay for those mistakes as the would get 7 points off each of those TO’s. If you take away those 14 points then it’s a 27-25 game and a whole different story.
Defiance vs. Coast Guard
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 37-10 Defiance
Final Score: 38-15 Defiance
This one could have been a lot closer if not for two missed FG’s and a 52 yard drive resulting in a punt for a net 0 points for Coast Guard. However, even if they end up get 13 points out of those three possessions it would still be a 10 point win for Defiance. The only area of the game that Defiance didn’t win in this one was the TO battle (2 to 1). There really wasn’t a chance for Coast Guard as they gave up 10 quick points and allowed Defiance to rush for 4.9 yards per carry on 41 carries for a total of 199 rushing yards. Defiance will look to continue their playoff run as the competition will get tougher in the next round.
King’s vs. Austin
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 50-24 Austin
Final Score: 26-17 Austin
There were a lot fewer points than expected even though the two teams combined for 741 total yards of offense. King’s were able to keep the game close with the score 10-3 at the half, but Austin just had too much for them after the break. With the score at 17-3 to open the 4th, King’s would try to mount a comeback. After cutting Austin’s lead to 3 points with 3:26 to play, Austin were able to answer with a 6 play 50 yard game clinching drive that put the game out of reach. Once again, this was a tough draw for a strong King’s team that were looking to make a statement. They just ran up against the wrong opponent in the first round as Austin will be looking to their second round matchup.
Menlo vs. MIT
Cin_ben’s Prediction: 34-28 Menlo
Final Score: 20-16 Menlo
Here’s another unexpected low scoring game. MIT did an amazing job getting after the QB and significantly limiting the high powered Menlo offense. Menlo QB Ramon Wilson was under pressure all game as he gave up 6 sacks, 1 INT, and was forced to scramble 12 times while finishing 29 for 49 with 294 yards passing and rushing 19 times for -9 yards. MIT were able to build a 13-10 halftime lead that carried over to a 16-13 4th quarter lead. With great field position on MIT’s 38 following a 33 yard punt return by RB Justin Peters, QB Ramon Wilson would regain his composure. He would lead Menlo on a 6 play 38 yard drive to put Menlo ahead 20-16 with 1:02 remaining in the game. That would end up being the final score as Menlo moves on after a real scare from a very strong MIT squad.
Cin_ben Prediction Record: 13-3
This completes the first round review. I’ll have the second round breakdown out after a short dinner break. Hopefully I can continue to as close as I’ve been on my predictions, both winners and scores were surprisingly (at least to me) close in the first round.