I always agonize over my first round picks, pitchers, hitters, how high to go, how low to go without going too low. I've seen people hit the jackpot when that one lucky pick sneaks though. I can't count the number of times I've seen people get shut out in the first round. I think if you get three decent players a round, you are doing well. There will be a big qualitative difference between the first couple rounds and the last few rounds, that's the one thing I am certain of.
I am about to make my picks, but won't send them out until the league fills. I think I have eight or nine sets of picks waiting for me to open.