i used to post the opinion that you absolutely should switch at 360. i am pretty confident at one point in time, that was correct. but over the last couple years, maybe even since sebles "new engine" release when he rewrote it, things seemed to have changed. i meant to make a thread to publicly rescind a couple things ive stood behind over time, when i retired, and i probably still will, just havent gotten to it - but pretty much, this was the most important item i wanted to rescind my statements on. not to replace them with any set belief - but i hate to lead people astray. so sorry, no comment on the answer.
i often wondered about the part of home visits where you would get the player to just not show - losing the money, not getting the credit. i havent seen this in years. has anyone else. i wondered if maybe the value of HV:CVs changed if and when that was removed or made less frequent. i seem to think it was frequent enough to be a concern, but now it feels like if it even exists, its nearly impossible to get to happen.
ive asked seble and he swears nothing has changed but i dont know, i really struggle to believe i figured this wrong 4ish years ago, i mean i was at least 99% confident, numbers don't lie, and i studied things in HD with a ridiculous level of intensity back then. so i feel like something had to change. or else the figures at d1 are NOT the same as d2/d3 where most of my research took place - old admin assured me the figures were the same across divisions, but you never know.
while im at it, the other things id like to rescind is the belief that WOTS falls into 2 categories - not that im saying thats wrong. girt always supports it and i tested the 3/3/3 3 tier theory (3 messages at 3 levels), and proved to myself it was wrong. but what about 3/2/4? or 3/1/5? clearly the top 3 are the same, but there are those 1 or 2 messages i only seem to get when i think i should be tight but am not, and i dont feel i see them when i do, for example, 110 dollar specials. so i really wonder if a 3/4/2 or 3/1/5 structure is in place - seems just as likely as 3/6 on principle. maybe girt can comment if hes only disproven the intuitive 3/3/3 model or also those other 3/4/2 or 3/1/5 models.
the final thing id like to rescind is the belief there is more at work with tempo than # of possessions and fatigue. old admin made such unclear and misleading statements, we effectively proved that wrong at one point, which gave me some confidence my overall theory was right - one of competing factors evening things out, explaining old admins claims that everything stayed the same with uptempo. for example, i could see fg% clearly was affected, beyond shadow of a doubt. old admin claimed it wasnt affected. he even mentioned running sims across a test world to make sure. i assumed this had to mean on average, fg% evened out, but there had to be competing factors that made it the case that it wasnt always even in individual circumstances. i thought maybe, fg% was better because of more fastbreak opportunities from uptempo, but worse in the halfcourt. what i saw was, with great defense, playing uptempo hurt my opponents on offense - and we had super fast teams back in those days.
anyway ive been convinced (largely by rgerkin) that maybe i was wrong on that - that rather, the lower fatigue of the other team just makes them worse in all cases, for many categories. i never saw fg% get better, i just was trying to incorporate statements by admin into what i saw to produce a model that was consistent with both. i think the end result is the same - uptempo is still absolutely terrible to run into better teams (assuming no ridiculous depth situation) - why increase the # of simulations and hurt yourself in each, when you are already worse off? and i still believe uptempo is total crap in general, except possibly if you are playing pressing teams, where the # of possessions going up increases # of fouls, and with fouls being marginally more detrimental the more you get. zone teams probably suffer the least from uptempo so a great zone team might even want to play it against other man/zone teams, with a substantial talent gap. but by and large, uptempo just isnt the way to go in competitive games.