As jc said, there is no such thing as a wasted campus visit; either the recruit accepts it or not.
It doesn't matter who the message is from, the only thing that matters is whether or not the visit was accepted.
You do not know who exactly is in the lead until you signings begin, since scholarship offers are processed after all other recruiting actions. There are other, less expensive ways of determining who is leading at the time your recruiting actions are processed. Try them and see what happens.
If you're battling a SIM-coached school, you need to make sure you knock it off the recruit sooner, rather than later, or risk losing all your money trying to overcome the effort the SIM has put into the recruit.