%&$#*(#% the Amateur Draft! Topic

So when I was preparing for the Draft, I saw a real drop-off after my eighth-ranked prospect.  Since I had the 33rd overall pick, I was worried that my first-rounder might cross that threshold, so I stuck Kirby Howard at #9, hoping to at least pull something reasonable the following season as a comp.

Well, Kirby, who was initially represented by his mother, dropped her in order to represent himself and subsequently accepted my $8mil tender.  What?!?  I thought the prospects represented by their mothers were guaranteed to refuse the offer?  Now I have shot myself in the foot as regards the IFA market, and all I have to show for it is a very expensive AAA pitcher.  Uggh.
7/29/2013 10:42 AM
7/29/2013 10:48 AM
Very unlucky. 

My impression is that they sign less than 1-5% of the time; this is the 3rd or 4th I've seen sign (the first I've seen take the offer the first time).
7/29/2013 10:54 AM
I assume you're not in the "MORE RANDOMNESS!!!" camp.
7/29/2013 10:57 AM
You should really make sure they are at least passable MLers when you do that.

I do.
7/29/2013 11:06 AM
You can't ever assume that anything in this game is a "guarantee".

Sucks for you, but maybe lesson learned for others.

And, what iain said.
7/29/2013 11:17 AM
Ouch.. $8m for a bum at #94 pick
7/29/2013 1:02 PM
I try it once in awhile. I've had one sign and probably ten that haven't signed.
7/29/2013 3:55 PM
I feel especially dumb because I actually signed the guy as a second-round pick.  Even when there's risk involved, I can imagine a situation where taking the gamble on securing a type-D on a first-rounder is worthwhile.  But not a 2nd-rounder.  I just got greedy.
7/29/2013 7:29 PM
I've made that same mistake, but with a bigger gamble...the #1 overall.  Set my franchise back probably 2 seasons.  Won't.  Happen.  Again.  Ever...
7/31/2013 10:58 AM
That's what happens when you game the system.
7/31/2013 11:58 AM
Does this strategy ever work? Yes, I'm kinda new. You don't like this draft crop and your pick, so you deliberately draft someone who won't sign hoping to get a better player with next year's comp pick.

I don't see a lot of threads saying, did it and got a great player. Confirmation, anyone?
7/31/2013 1:38 PM

Sort of. If I have a low first round pick, I'll try to have my draft budget somewhere between 2/2 and 6/6, so I at least get a pool of players.
I'll set my 1st round to very aggressive.
But, I won't tank the ranking. I will rank what I see best to worse down to about 50 prospects.

If I get a won't sign, ok, I'll take the type D and the cycle starts again next season.

7/31/2013 2:26 PM
And yes, I have been happy with that extra pick in the past.
7/31/2013 2:26 PM
Alright.  Now, that sounds like an application that makes sense.

7/31/2013 2:35 PM
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