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jfranco77
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And yet... all 6 of my teams won between 83-94 games. I got 3 in the playoffs, and 2 of them got bounced in the first round. 
10/3/2013 9:55 AM
schwarze
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Your 94-win team was the #1 seed and it lost to an 89-win wildcard team. 
Your 87-win wildcard team is still alive (the beat a 95-win #1 seed).
Only your 88-win wildcard team lost when it was "supposed to lose".

I haven't run the numbers yet, but my guess is that the worst team (by Win%) won more than half the first round playoff series.
10/3/2013 3:01 PM
schwarze
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OK, I ran the numbers for all the first-round playoff series.

The team with more wins went 41-53. (In two series, the teams had the same number of wins).

Parsing the data a bit...
 
Teams with a +5 or better win differential went 31-38.

If a team won 100+ games, they went 15-16.

10/3/2013 3:39 PM
schwarze
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More parsing of the data...

Teams with win differential of +1 to +5 went 13-21   (OK, in theory these teams are fairly even. 13-21 isn't .500, but it's s small sample size)

Teams with win differential of +6 to +10 went 11-24   (This doesn't make any sense at all.  The better team wins less than 33% of the time?)

Teams with win differential of +11 and up went 17-8   (Finally, something that makes sense)

A lot of the 100-win teams feel into that middle category.
10/3/2013 3:59 PM
brianjw
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Actually, I think this makes some sense. There are different teams that will do well in the regular season to in the playoffs. Loading up on the cookie pitchers (Milacki, etc) and even more so, loading up on a #1 and #2 super-ace starter will be bad in the regular season, but good in the playoffs.

Short version, you need a balanced pitching staff to win lots of games, but a top-heavy one to win in the playoffs.

There's also the chance that some of the lower win teams had been a bit more careful about resting starters to get ready for playoffs, costing them some games. But I think it's the balanced vs top-heavy that would be the difference here.

Note that this isn't a way in which WiS is different to real life. How good your #5 and #6 starters are can make a big difference to whether you make the playoffs, but without injuries make almost no difference to whether you win them. Same in the sim, except it's now the #3 and #4 starters.
10/3/2013 6:52 PM
schwarze
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Well, after an unexpectedly great regular season, I had the very-much-expected underachieving post-season.  Despite have the better record in nearly every series I played in, I went 3-3 in the wildcard round, went 1-2 in the divsional series and 0-1 in the World Series. Based on what brianjw says in the previous post, I need to re-evaluate how I build my rosters.   I've been underacheiving in the playoffs for many many years on this site, especially with my 100+ win teams. 

My results, series by series...

$70M
schwarze (106-56) over cubbies84 (91-71)  3-2
yankeesoy (99-63) over schwarze 4-2

$80M
markeking (91-71) over schwarze (105-57)  3-1

$90M
schwarze (94-68) over footballmm11 (83-80) 3-2
ybjsports (94-69) over schwarze 4-0

$100M
odalisgagne (88-74) over schwarze (95-67) 3-2

$110M
mpitt76 (96-66) over schwarze (102-60) 3-2

$120M
schwarze (95-67) over pedrocerrano (96-65) 3-1
schwarze over koyunlu (91-71) 4-2
ryan_horner (87-75) over schwarze 4-3

And not surprisingly, the only league I didn't have the better seed ($120M, I was wildcard) was the only league I made it to the World Series, of course losing to the other wildcard (who had a worse record).


10/6/2013 1:55 PM
contrarian23
Posts: 19262 (5)
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Here are the actual MLB results for the postseason series from 1995-2012.

There were 126 series (I am not counting play-in games or 2012's 1-game wild card matchups - just LDS, LCS, and WS).

In 5 of those series, the 2 participants had the same number of wins.
In 61 series, the 2 teams were within 5 wins.  The "better" team won 29 of the 61 series (winning percentage: .475)
In 37 series, the 2 teams were within 6-10 wins.  The "better" team won 20 of the 37. (winning percentage: .541)
In 23 series, 1 of the teams won 11 or more games than the other.  The "better" team won 14 of the 23. (winning percentage: .609)
Overall, the "better" team won 63 of the 121 series, for a winning percentage of .521.

I did not test for statistical significance of any of the above, but another way to look at it is that in MLB win differential is not at all predictive of postseason success when it is 10 wins or fewer.  In the 98 series in which the teams were within 10 games of each other, the "better" team won 49, or exactly 50%.
10/6/2013 6:25 PM (edited)
jsakicno19
Posts: 1030 (0)
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C'mon now, schwarze... Have been a relatively silent fan of your tourney's here
for many years... C'mon now, schwarze...

Your "built" teams handled such play-off foes like cubbies84, footballmm11, &
pedrocerrano, koyunlu... Implying a new "build" team logic would create teams
to perform in play-off's, against others like rbow-odalis-ryanH-et al, etc. ???...

C'mon now, schwarze... U know the SiM better than that... Next year's tourney,
will produce play-off results where cubbies-football-pedro-&-koy get revenge
& take advantage of your new "build" team play-off strategies...

C'mon now, schwarze... Your fan club loves U... Great job... Carry on... Round 2
 

10/6/2013 4:46 PM
schwarze
Posts: 37912 (3)
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I think this statement pretty much says it all...

"... another way to look at it is that in MLB win differential is not at all predictive of postseason success when it is 10 wins or fewer. In the 98 series in which the teams were within 10 games of each other, the "better" team won 49, or exactly 50%"

But I do think brianjw has a good point.  I usually try build my teams with as few weaknesses as possible, especially when it comes to pitching.  I almost always have strong starting pitchers 1 thru 4 (if using a 4-man rotation).  I rarely build a starting rotation with a couple of studs and a couple of weak links. 
10/6/2013 6:19 PM
jsakicno19
Posts: 1030 (0)
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During this reply-less time, the clock is noted as an
east coast dinner hour, on a Sunday evening...

Simplifying, this has been a 96-seat, poker tourney,
in evolution over the years... Even I have a view of all
hands in play... Access, & the same math tools, -&-
all the awesome table-spreads of your databases...

&, ---like poker, ---your opponents read your hands...
Your 107-win bluff, etc... Your opponents did well...

& ---they will do well against U next year... Not saying
that math is applied here... Just read your opponents
better next year... Part of the 'GL Next Year' aspect...

Luv Ya', man... Gotta Go... Thanx 4 the 2nd post here...
10/6/2013 6:40 PM
brianjw
Posts: 1260 (0)
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Posted by schwarze on 10/6/2013 6:19:00 PM (view original):
I think this statement pretty much says it all...

"... another way to look at it is that in MLB win differential is not at all predictive of postseason success when it is 10 wins or fewer. In the 98 series in which the teams were within 10 games of each other, the "better" team won 49, or exactly 50%"

But I do think brianjw has a good point.  I usually try build my teams with as few weaknesses as possible, especially when it comes to pitching.  I almost always have strong starting pitchers 1 thru 4 (if using a 4-man rotation).  I rarely build a starting rotation with a couple of studs and a couple of weak links. 
I pretty much do the same. And it's pretty clear I think that the way to win the most regular season games is in general to be as balanced as possible, not have any holes, and be set up to exploit whatever holes your opponent leaves. But in the playoffs things might be different.

Not much point thinking about it now though. In round 2, there's no point dropping a few regular season wins to get a great playoff team, because you won't make the playoffs. 

 
10/6/2013 9:42 PM
schwarze
Posts: 37912 (3)
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The other obvious reason playoff games are basically a coin flip.  No built-in home-field advantage in the baseball sim.

Historically, MLB teams win 54% of the time in their home games. 

In this year's tournament (regular season), in almost 47,000 games, the home team won just 50.4% of the games.  So essentially no home field advantage. 
10/6/2013 10:23 PM
jfranco77
Posts: 4312 (1)
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My 87 win team in the 90mil league won a play-in game to get the wild card, then won the LDS 3-2, the LCS 4-3, and the WS 4-2. So I can't really complain about bad luck any more. Still pretty amazing that I had all 6 teams over .500, won a world series and still missed the top 25. That just shows how good the best owners really are. 
10/7/2013 3:57 PM
profcake
Posts: 2046 (0)
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My active teams went 2W/5L in the 12/5 AM games, but they pulled out the clutch win to secure the TOC with my round 1 $80M team.  Woot!  
12/6/2013 1:48 AM
schwarze
Posts: 37912 (3)
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Nice job!
12/6/2013 9:21 AM
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