9/13/2013 8:26 AM
Posted by ybjsports on 9/12/2013 10:49:00 AM (view original):
It would be neat if you could isolate opponent strength by backing out the given owners own record
I thought about doing this, but it biases the data in the opposite direction.  Teams have played 20+ games vs divisional opponents, and the good teams with lots of division wins get penalized.
9/13/2013 8:27 AM
Posted by justinlee_24 on 9/8/2013 1:24:00 AM (view original):
Looks like Schwartz might actually win his own tourney this time... he's opened up a commanding 9 game lead over Brianjw and every single one of his teams has won at least 60 games.
A couple of 2-4 and 1-5 sessions in a row, and just like that, the 9-game lead is gone.
9/14/2013 10:12 AM
Well, one thing I've determined this year is that my teams are very streaky.  Luckily, the good streaks have outnumber the bad streaks, but here is a sampling of my year so far.

The key to long term success in this tournament is to avoid the 0-6, 1-5 and 2-4 sessions.  Two of my first three sessions were 2-4.  Then my teams went 15 straight sessions without a session worse than 3-3 (51-39 stretch). 

Then three of my next six sessions were worse than 3-3, but that was immediately followed by a run of 4-6-4-6-4-6-5.  A short time later, I put together 23 straight sessions without going worse than 3-3  (87-51 stretch).

After a mixture of 2's, 3's and 4's, I went on another really hot streak, 6,5,6,2,4,4,4,4,4,5,4,4,5 to reach a high-water mark of .627 winning percentage.

Then, I hit my worst stretch of the year...  1,2,4,2,1,1 (11-25), but I've rebounded a bit the last two sessions.

Overall, here is a distribution of my sessions:

0 wins: 0
1 wins: 4
2 wins: 16
3 wins: 33
4 wins: 36
5 wins: 26
6 wins: 6

Obviously, I am thrilled to be doing so well.  And now that I'm done writing about this, I'm fairly certain that this post will spark another bad streak.
9/14/2013 10:53 AM
Posted by schwarze on 9/14/2013 10:14:00 AM (view original):
Well, one thing I've determined this year is that my teams are very streaky.  Luckily, the good streaks have outnumber the bad streaks, but here is a sampling of my year so far.

The key to long term success in this tournament is to avoid the 0-6, 1-5 and 2-4 sessions.  Two of my first three sessions were 2-4.  Then my teams went 15 straight sessions without a session worse than 3-3 (51-39 stretch). 

Then three of my next six sessions were worse than 3-3, but that was immediately followed by a run of 4-6-4-6-4-6-5.  A short time later, I put together 23 straight sessions without going worse than 3-3  (87-51 stretch).

After a mixture of 2's, 3's and 4's, I went on another really hot streak, 6,5,6,2,4,4,4,4,4,5,4,4,5 to reach a high-water mark of .627 winning percentage.

Then, I hit my worst stretch of the year...  1,2,4,2,1,1 (11-25), but I've rebounded a bit the last two sessions.

Overall, here is a distribution of my sessions:

0 wins: 0
1 wins: 4
2 wins: 16
3 wins: 33
4 wins: 36
5 wins: 26
6 wins: 6

Obviously, I am thrilled to be doing so well.  And now that I'm done writing about this, I'm fairly certain that this post will spark another bad streak.
That's why I refuse to talk about my teams, and why I refuse to even look at building teams for the 2nd round until I am actually in....
9/15/2013 1:00 AM
Never count your chickens before they hatch...I was comfortably in the top 20 then a shitstorm and I'm in the high 40 range now.
9/18/2013 7:44 AM
Had a really nice run to get about 25 games over .500 and now we are back to 399-399 after 798 games.
9/18/2013 2:04 PM (edited)
I wish there were an easy way to inventory all the teams to see who the luckiest and unluckiest owners are.  My teams are fairly nuetral, depending on how you measure it.

Using the Pythag Exp Win%, it would appear all six of my teams are unlucky (by an average of 4.7 wins per team)
Theme Actual Expected Difference
70M 0.679 0.728 (0.049)
80M 0.642 0.691 (0.049)
90M 0.612 0.647 (0.035)
100M 0.597 0.627 (0.030)
110M 0.604 0.647 (0.043)
120M 0.567 0.574 (0.007)
Average 0.617 0.652 (0.035)


But, I'm fairly certain that these numbers are skewed due to blowout wins.


Using record in 1-run games, I'm slightly on the lucky side...
Theme 1-Run Wins 1-Run Losses
70M 22 17
80M 16 15
90M 17 20
100M 20 20
110M 20 15
120M 19 20
Average 19.0 17.8


Then again, I'm slightly unlucky in extra inning games...
Theme Extras Wins Extras Losses
70M 3 7
80M 5 6
90M 5 7
100M 9 8
110M 3 5
120M 6 7
Average 5.2 6.7


Would like to see how others are doing in these categories.
9/19/2013 9:57 AM
Even if we could compile all those stats, it might not be the most important kind of luck. According to Baseball Prospectus, this year's Detroit Tigers are super unlucky, but not in ways that show up in any of these measures. They are just not getting the run differential you'd expect from their component stats. By component stats for and against, they are playing as well as a 110-win team! But they are only going to end up with 90-something wins because, I guess, they are stranding a bunch of runners and their opponents aren't.

I don't know any way of measuring for this in WiS.

Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings
9/19/2013 12:43 PM
Yes, I'm familiar with this phenomenon.  Another word that I've heard used is "Cluster-Luck".... the ability to cluster hits together to produce more runs than the same number of hits would normally produce given a random distribution. 

So first step is to calculate expected runs scored (and allowed), based on the component stats, then use those numbers to calculate expected winning %.  Note sure I have enough data to calculate the expected runs allowed for pitchers.

Would be a fun excercise though. 
9/19/2013 9:21 PM
I'm sure it isn't easy to compile, but WiS does give you inside a league the AVG/OBP/SLG for pitchers, which is interesting to measure against team earned runs allowed. But I don't know a good way to put it together.
9/19/2013 9:41 PM
Here is what I came up with:

Pythag Exp Win%
Theme Actual Expected Variance
70M 0.507 0.516 (0.009)
80M 0.522 0.488 0.034
90M 0.464 0.499 (0.035)
100M 0.543 0.578 (0.035)
110M 0.413 0.369 0.044
120M 0.565 0.543 0.022
Average 0.502 0.499 0.004


1-Run Games:
Theme 1-Run Wins 1-Run Losses
70M 26 17
80M 20 19
90M 16 28
100M 21 22
110M 11 14
120M 24 26
Average 19.7 21.0


Extra Innings:
Theme Extra Wins Extra Losses
70M 7 8
80M 8 6
90M 8 7
100M 4 8
110M 4 1
120M 6 5
Average 6.2 5.8

I'll let you judge the results and determine where I fall in the scale of luck after 138 games.
9/20/2013 9:12 AM
I'll join in for the sake of being able to whine a little.  My 80M has done well by these measures, but the rest of my teams have performed marginally at best.  My 90M team easily has the worst actual win% of any theme team I've ever owned.  Their performance is simply horrific in all three of these categories.  If I don't make round two, it will be easy for me to point to that as a major reason why.

Theme Actual Expected Difference
70M 0.554 0.578 -0.024
80M 0.568 0.544 0.024
90M 0.417 0.511 -0.094
100M 0.568 0.631 -0.063
110M 0.568 0.622 -0.054
120M 0.576 0.659 -0.083
Average 0.541 0.591 -0.05

 
     
Theme 1-Run Wins 1-Run Losses  
70M 23 24  
80M 26 19  
90M 11 24  
100M 22 17  
110M 12 20  
120M 20 19  
Average 19 20.5  

 
     
Theme Extras Wins Extras Losses  
70M 4 10  
80M 9 2  
90M 5 13  
100M 7 6  
110M 6 8  
120M 6 10  
Average 6.2 8.2  
9/20/2013 12:25 PM

I've basically had tons of good luck, with the very partial exception of my 90M team. I'm slightly underperforming Pythagorean, but that should be true of everyone who doesn't run into fatigue death spiral. The 24 games over .500 among 1-run games isn't really sustainable.

By Runs Scored-Allowed

Theme Actual Expected Difference
70M 0.665 0.708 –0.043
80M 0.662 0.665 –0.003
90M 0.547 0.565 –0.018
100M 0.676 0.663 0.013
110M 0.604 0.627 –0.025
120M 0.590 0.582 0.008

One Run Record

Theme Wins Losses Difference
70M 20 17 3
80M 15 15 0
90M 23 24 –1
100M 23 11 12
110M 25 21 4
120M 25 19 6
Total 131 107 24

Extra Innings

Theme Wins Losses Difference
70M 3 1 2
80M 4 2 2
90M 4 11 –7
100M 7 3 4
110M 10 6 4
120M 8 8 0
Total 36 31 5
9/20/2013 1:45 PM
Man, sometimes it just seems like this Sim is against you. These last 5 cycles have been brutal for all my teams. Even my non-WISC team is going down faster then a $2 hooker.
9/22/2013 8:57 AM
My hopes are dashed. In the past 20 games I have gone from 3 playoff teams to likely 1 - large wildcard leads have been blown as my teams have sunk into the abyss. I was close to 40 games above .500 overall and now were are at exactly .500 after all these games. Oh well, there is always next season.
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