Who Should I Draft with #1 Pick? Topic

Posted by frazzman80 on 8/8/2013 2:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by milmont77 on 8/8/2013 1:21:00 PM (view original):
I see a lot of comments that "so and so won't hit his projections"... this is of interest to me as a first year player about to head into my first ever draft.    Approx.  how much growth is realistic per rate category ?   What is realistic  +7 or +8 per season ? with 4 yrs of growth? ...  assuming coaches / training / playing time are all utilized correctly.
It varies player to player by a couple of points, and coaches will matter a lot, but if you have league average or above coaching, my experience is:
  • Drafted Season: 2-4
  • Year 1: 5-7
  • Year 2: 4-6
  • Year 3: 3-5
  • Year 4: 2-4
  • Year 5: 0-2 - 3 if you're really lucky
  • Year 6: 0-1 - 2 if you're really lucky

Most players gain a MAX of around 25 points from where they start...
This growth pattern being skill based categories and not physical fyi...
8/8/2013 3:49 PM
Is that overall?  It seems about right, but I do have a player I drafted #2 overall out of HS who was a 58 on draft day, and a 92 now. (34 point improvement)  As far as individual skill, you can definently get more than 25 in individual skills on players.
8/8/2013 4:53 PM
Other things to factor, what hand do they bat with?  What is their patience?  A ultra high patience guy is going to resign down the road w/o testing free agency.  Obviously you have to wait 10+ seasons (more like 14 w/ minor league development) for that to factor in, which is like 3+ years in real life, so its a small factor, but something I use as a tie breaker.
8/8/2013 4:54 PM
#1 without a doubt.. the SP if he is 18yr old
8/8/2013 5:28 PM
POSTSCRIPT: I drafted the 3B/SS. The reason I posted this topic was that I had only $14M in College Scouting, and was afraid I was flying a little blind. I have signed the player, and since I have $20M in advanced scouting, I thought folks might be interested in the variance between the projections between a $14M  College Scouting budget and $20M in advanced scouting. By the way the SP that some said I should draft went 9th. Here, then is future all-star Alfredo Cromer:

                                         CON     POW       vL     vR      EYE    BR     Range   Glove  ARMS    ARMAC Health  MUP     Speed       OAV
                Projected           93        72          81     71        70      81       80          86        93             84          99          97         82           96     
 Advanced-$20 SCOUTING
                                        CON     POW       vL     vR      EYE    BR     Range   Glove  ARMS     ARMAC Health  MUP     Speed       OAV
                Projected           94        74          80     77       66      82       82          86        86            82          98        100         80           95

Summary-This guy actually has better contact, better Vl, much better Vr, a worse eye, better range, was less arm strength, a smidge less health, better health, less speed and better makeup. While these variations are interesting, my take away is that the$14M Scouting was still pretty illuminating as to the sum/parts.

Thanks all for the help. I am pleased with this future franchise cornerstone.


8/9/2013 12:09 PM
That vR bump is really nice and makes a good decision look even better. If he hits 90 in contact with the other 3 hitting cats in the mid-70s while giving you passable SS defense or gold-glove caliber 3B defense, he will be an MVP candidate.
8/9/2013 12:25 PM
You made the right decision.  I don't even think there was an option.  #1 was clearly better.

Gold Glove 3B with a plus bat....and can play SS in a pinch. 

You never posted his DUR though.
8/12/2013 10:10 AM
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Who Should I Draft with #1 Pick? Topic

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