# Defensive Metrics Topic

Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 9:41:00 AM (view original):
OK, seriously.  The case for Trout was a little better last year than this year.  I'll take the guy who gets on base more often and is easily a better slugger.  IMO, it makes up for the Cabrera defensive issues and any baserunning advantage Trout has.
I'm not sure what the exact number is these days, but the "cutoff" number for stolen base success is around 67%.  if you steal at less than that rate, you are hurting your team.

Trout has atempted 39 steals.  67% of that would be 26 stolen bases.  He's been successful 32 times, so that's a net +6 for him.
Cabrera is 3-0 in stolen base attempts.  He's got a net +1.

So the effective difference in SB's between Trout and Cabrera is 5.

Whoopty **** for Trout's base running advantage.
9/11/2013 9:58 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 9/11/2013 9:58:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 9:41:00 AM (view original):
OK, seriously.  The case for Trout was a little better last year than this year.  I'll take the guy who gets on base more often and is easily a better slugger.  IMO, it makes up for the Cabrera defensive issues and any baserunning advantage Trout has.
I'm not sure what the exact number is these days, but the "cutoff" number for stolen base success is around 67%.  if you steal at less than that rate, you are hurting your team.

Trout has atempted 39 steals.  67% of that would be 26 stolen bases.  He's been successful 32 times, so that's a net +6 for him.
Cabrera is 3-0 in stolen base attempts.  He's got a net +1.

So the effective difference in SB's between Trout and Cabrera is 5.

Whoopty **** for Trout's base running advantage.
A) that's not how net SB is calculated. Cabrera is net 3. Trout is net 25.
B) base running is more than just SB.
9/11/2013 10:01 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 9/11/2013 9:54:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 9:30:00 AM (view original):
When did I cite dWAR? Do you think Cabrera is better defensively?
"UZR, ************!!!  ???
You didn't answer. Do you think Cabrera is more valuable defensively?
9/11/2013 10:02 AM
Well yes, but it's just not about stolen bases.  Getting from 1st to 3rd on a line drive to right-center is also valuable, etc.  I know Trout does that more than Cabrera.
9/11/2013 10:02 AM
If a guy steals 100 bases and gets caught 50 times, he gets a net 50, according to BL.

Is that better than the guy who doesn't attempt a stolen base?
9/11/2013 10:09 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:09:00 AM (view original):
If a guy steals 100 bases and gets caught 50 times, he gets a net 50, according to BL.

Is that better than the guy who doesn't attempt a stolen base?
No, his rate is ****. But he's still net 50.
9/11/2013 10:10 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:02:00 AM (view original):
Well yes, but it's just not about stolen bases.  Getting from 1st to 3rd on a line drive to right-center is also valuable, etc.  I know Trout does that more than Cabrera.
Is there a stat for that?
9/11/2013 10:12 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 10:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:09:00 AM (view original):
If a guy steals 100 bases and gets caught 50 times, he gets a net 50, according to BL.

Is that better than the guy who doesn't attempt a stolen base?
No, his rate is ****. But he's still net 50.
OK.  That's tec's overall point.  Trout is not as good a basestealer as last year.
9/11/2013 10:14 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:14:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 10:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:09:00 AM (view original):
If a guy steals 100 bases and gets caught 50 times, he gets a net 50, according to BL.

Is that better than the guy who doesn't attempt a stolen base?
No, his rate is ****. But he's still net 50.
OK.  That's tec's overall point.  Trout is not as good a basestealer as last year.
Not as great as last year, but still great. And much, much better than Cabrera. Tec's trying to say that the difference between them is small.
9/11/2013 10:25 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 10:25:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:14:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 10:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:09:00 AM (view original):
If a guy steals 100 bases and gets caught 50 times, he gets a net 50, according to BL.

Is that better than the guy who doesn't attempt a stolen base?
No, his rate is ****. But he's still net 50.
OK.  That's tec's overall point.  Trout is not as good a basestealer as last year.
Not as great as last year, but still great. And much, much better than Cabrera. Tec's trying to say that the difference between them is small.
It's smaller than you give credit for.

If the purpose of a stolen base is to give your team a better chance of scoring, then you have to steal at better than a 67% (or thereabout) success rate.

Trout is only 6 steals above that rate.  Cabrera is 1 steal above that rate.

6 - 1 = 5

5 stolen bases is hardly significant.
9/11/2013 11:11 AM
Posted by tecwrg on 9/11/2013 11:11:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 10:25:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:14:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 10:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 9/11/2013 10:09:00 AM (view original):
If a guy steals 100 bases and gets caught 50 times, he gets a net 50, according to BL.

Is that better than the guy who doesn't attempt a stolen base?
No, his rate is ****. But he's still net 50.
OK.  That's tec's overall point.  Trout is not as good a basestealer as last year.
Not as great as last year, but still great. And much, much better than Cabrera. Tec's trying to say that the difference between them is small.
It's smaller than you give credit for.

If the purpose of a stolen base is to give your team a better chance of scoring, then you have to steal at better than a 67% (or thereabout) success rate.

Trout is only 6 steals above that rate.  Cabrera is 1 steal above that rate.

6 - 1 = 5

5 stolen bases is hardly significant.
You see why that's stupid, right? 5 stolen bases wouldn't be significant but the difference isn't 5. It's 29. You don't calculate the net by only counting the bases stolen above 67%. That's retarded as hell.

Net stolen bases is calculated by simply subtracting the caught stealing total from the stolen base total. Trout is net 25, Cabrera is net 3.

Or you say Trout has stolen 32 with a 82% success rate and Cabrera has 3 stolen bases with a 100% success rate. This way gives a more complete picture.
9/11/2013 11:31 AM
BTW, Rickey Henderson's career SB success rate is 81%. Trout is at 88% for his (much, much shorter) career.
9/11/2013 11:35 AM
From Buster Olney:

Before the season, Mike Trout talked about wanting to be more patient at the plate, about drawing more walks, because in his first full season in the big leagues he had shown some impatience and, naturally, he wanted to get better.

Well, a year later, Trout has increased his walk total -- by about 50 percent. He is on pace to draw 102 walks this season, as well as 203 hits, 78 extra-base hits, 110 runs, 95 RBIs and 36 stolen bases.

A longtime player was asked last week about the MVP vote in the American League. “Trout’s going to win it, isn’t he?” he responded. “There isn’t really any question about it -- he’s the best player in baseball.”

• Trout currently leads the AL in hits with 179.
• He leads the league in walks with 90.
• He leads in runs with 97.
• He’s tied for fifth in doubles with 37.
• He’s third in OPS at 1.009.
• He is also running away from everybody else in WAR, in the way
that he did last year

Last year, the drumbeat of the Trout-for-MVP discussion was led by talent evaluators who work in street clothes -- the general managers, the assistant general managers, the scouts. But this year, you hear it more and more from players. They view Trout as occupying a very special and distinct place in the sport.

Most players I’ve spoken this summer with think
Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter, andClayton Kershaw is the best pitcher.

But the best overall player? The folks in front offices still can’t believe there’s a debate about this, given Trout’s staggering preeminence in the statistical evaluations they compile. Now, more and more players are agreeing with them, in Trout’s second full year in the big leagues.

9/11/2013 11:36 AM
Yea, tec's off in his statistical analysis re: stolen bases.

I didn't realize (or just overlooked) that Trout has about 50 plate appearances than Miggy this year.  Maybe I was just thinking in last years terms where he had less....yea, I think it's close.
9/11/2013 11:59 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/11/2013 11:35:00 AM (view original):
BTW, Rickey Henderson's career SB success rate is 81%. Trout is at 88% for his (much, much shorter) career.
This year it's 82%, which is what we're discussing.
9/11/2013 12:01 PM
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Defensive Metrics Topic