There are only two ways to know where you stand in a recruiting battle: 1) The guy is green. As long as he stays that way, you have at least one FTF meeting with him, and you offer him a scholarship, he's going to sign with you. 2) The recruit is yellow, you've offered him a scholarship, and signings have started. In response to the scholarship offer, you'll get a message telling you're in the lead , or you're behind. Anything else is fluff .