Playoffs, a season early Topic

I don't think we'll see it because of the mentality of athletes and adrenaline/spirit in game situations, etc. but I thought Mason should have kneeled right before the goal line on that last TD run he broke. That's first and goal inside the one. Florida State's defense was pretty gassed. Auburn wouldn't have to run a play until less than a minute left, taking time away from Florida State to march down the field. You'd look pretty stupid if you didn't score, but I think the chance of that was pretty low.
1/7/2014 11:36 AM
I actually thought the same thing but how stupid would he/the coaching staff have looked if they fumbled the snap on the next play?  And how much juice would FSU's defense have gotten when they realized that Auburn had said "We'll score when we want to"?
1/7/2014 12:00 PM
That kind of thing to me only really makes sense if you're in a situation where you are already ahead and can run the clock out if you don't score, or if you're going to be able to end the game with a short field goal like the Saints did the other night.  Down 3 in that situation, you've got to take the touchdown when you can get it and trust your defense to not let them score a TD.  And even if it's something you'd want to do, the thought of scoring too quickly probably isn't really going through anyone's mind on a play that starts 37 yards away.
1/7/2014 12:11 PM
You know what, I didn't think that, but that's genius.  Odds of winning from 1st and goal from 1 has to be better than kicking off with 1:15 left.  There's almost no chance FSU stops Auburn 4 times at the goal line.
1/7/2014 1:44 PM
It's genius if it works.   On the other hand, Auburn had held FSU to two TDs for the first 58:47 of the game. 
1/7/2014 2:28 PM
I'd guess odds of FSU scoring were at least in the 25% range.  FSU was a different offensive team in the 2nd half than the 1st half.  I'd assume odds of Auburn scoring on goal to go from the 1 were 50-50 at worst on each attempt. (I'd argue, the way they were running, it's better than that).  So what are the odds of 4 straight stops?  Easily worse than 25%.
1/7/2014 2:37 PM
Not that it matters, as I think your numbers make no practical sense, but they'd have only ran three plays.   The 4th would have been a FG to tie. 
1/7/2014 2:47 PM
Regardless, I think it's obvious your odds of winning are better if you stopped at the 1.
1/7/2014 3:07 PM
If it was obvious, I think Gus Malzhan would have called it.   He's pretty good at that coaching thing.
1/7/2014 3:31 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/7/2014 3:31:00 PM (view original):
If it was obvious, I think Gus Malzhan would have called it.   He's pretty good at that coaching thing.
I don't think the call was obvious.

I think it's obvious that if you consider the possibility of kneeling at the 1, you realize the odds of winning are much better.  FWIW, It did cross my mind when he scored that "that was too quick."

Tom Coughlin's ok at that coaching thing, and he didn't tell Bradshaw to stop at the 1 in the Super Bowl in a much more obvious situation.
1/7/2014 3:37 PM
So what you're saying is you don't think coaches play out every possible scenario in their head while prepping for games?
1/7/2014 3:39 PM
Probably not, there's a lot of different scenarios.  Regardless, they had a better chance of winning kneeling at the 1 and running time off the clock.
1/7/2014 3:58 PM
I'm sure, statistically, in a vacuum, the odds are better.

I'm also sure if I'm a coach in that situation and I'm 37 yards away, the last thing I want my players thinking about is not scoring a touchdown too quickly.
1/7/2014 4:02 PM
OK, bad_luckjr. 

Coaches work 16-18 hours a day.   Over-preparing if you ask my opinion.   Malzahn has proven to be one of the best.    I don't think there's any way possible he didn't play it out.   Hell, they were milking the clock as it was so you know they didn't want to leave time for FSU.   As I said earlier, I don't think you want to tell FSU "We'll score our touchdown when we feel like it" nor do I think you take points off the board, winning points, to run more clock.   I trust the guy who makes his living coaching CFB more than I trust our opinions of the situation.
1/7/2014 4:04 PM
We question the coaches who make their living coaching all the time.  This is no different.

"I'm sure, statistically, in a vacuum, the odds are better."

That's all I'm saying, really.  I don't blame the coach or the player in this situation.

1/7/2014 4:27 PM
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Playoffs, a season early Topic

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