All Forums > Gridiron Dynasty Football > College Football > Playoffs, a season early
1/9/2014 8:17 AM
As I mentioned earlier, something as simple as a fumbled exchange or snap would cause you to lose when a tie was obvious and a win was likely.   No one takes that gamble.
1/9/2014 8:57 AM
I don't think you tell you players not to score unless you are tied, losing by 1 or 2, or winning.  In the situation in the game with Auburn down 4, you don't take a knee on the one because a FG can't even tie the game (you have to score the TD).  Tied or down 1 or 2, I probably just take a knee to run out the clock and then kick the FG for the win on 4th down.
1/9/2014 9:00 AM
Posted by AlCheez on 1/8/2014 8:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by trsnoke on 1/8/2014 4:22:00 PM (view original):
That's right - I've seen it when the team was ahead so not exactly the same. I meant I've seen the kneel to keep from scoring but the circumstances did change the risk profile so I guess that's not a very good comparison.
Right - kneeling instead of scoring when you're already ahead and can run out the clock yields essentially a 100% chance of winning, doing so when you can run out the clock and kick a chip shot field goal for the win as time expires must be in the high 90% (basically whatever the conversion rate for an extra point is). 

I'm honestly surprised that (based on the article you went on to post) the odds don't really support the strategy in this scenario. 
I'm surprised at the odds given as well.  I think that each run from the 1 is at least 50%, not at most 50%, considering how well Auburn was running the ball.  And the way FSU was moving with the ball, I thought their odds of scoring were higher than 15%.  
1/9/2014 9:12 AM
Posted by moranis on 1/9/2014 8:59:00 AM (view original):
I don't think you tell you players not to score unless you are tied, losing by 1 or 2, or winning.  In the situation in the game with Auburn down 4, you don't take a knee on the one because a FG can't even tie the game (you have to score the TD).  Tied or down 1 or 2, I probably just take a knee to run out the clock and then kick the FG for the win on 4th down.

Auburn was down by 3. 

1/9/2014 9:15 AM
I think there's a good case to be made for being optimistic on Auburn's chances, but I think you're overselling FSU's chances in hindsight - they had scored at TD on their last drive (not including the kickoff return), but they really only moved the ball on one other drive in the 2nd half.
1/9/2014 9:20 AM
True.  They had the one drive where they scored a TD in the 4th quarter before the return, aside from that, no TDs.
1/9/2014 1:54 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 9:12:00 AM (view original):
Posted by moranis on 1/9/2014 8:59:00 AM (view original):
I don't think you tell you players not to score unless you are tied, losing by 1 or 2, or winning.  In the situation in the game with Auburn down 4, you don't take a knee on the one because a FG can't even tie the game (you have to score the TD).  Tied or down 1 or 2, I probably just take a knee to run out the clock and then kick the FG for the win on 4th down.

Auburn was down by 3. 

yeah, I knew that, but for some reason when I was writing I was thinking it was 4 and didn't check.  Either way it doesn't change the analysis because a FG just ties you.
 
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