Holding players back Topic

burnsy483
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Posted by mchalesarmy on 10/31/2013 2:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/31/2013 2:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mchalesarmy on 10/31/2013 2:09:00 PM (view original):
I know I can be dense. Fairly regularly in fact.
But that guy hasn't devolving into anything but a very slightly less solid SS.
Check back with me when his 5 year contract is over. 
5 years is irrelevant.

The correct comparison would be 1 season from now, since as you stated you brought him up 2 seasons early.

So you lost him for THIS season and NEXT season. Those are the only two relevant seasons to the comparison.

His ratings for this season and next are most likely going to be better than the first two years he was making BL minimum.

Obviously if he was your best chance of winning no one can fault your decision, but don't kid yourself, you lost ownership of a "better" player by bringing up "developing player" early.
Good post.
10/31/2013 2:25 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by mchalesarmy on 10/31/2013 2:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/31/2013 2:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mchalesarmy on 10/31/2013 2:09:00 PM (view original):
I know I can be dense. Fairly regularly in fact.
But that guy hasn't devolving into anything but a very slightly less solid SS.
Check back with me when his 5 year contract is over. 
5 years is irrelevant.

The correct comparison would be 1 season from now, since as you stated you brought him up 2 seasons early.

So you lost him for THIS season and NEXT season. Those are the only two relevant seasons to the comparison.

His ratings for this season and next are most likely going to be better than the first two years he was making BL minimum.

Obviously if he was your best chance of winning no one can fault your decision, but don't kid yourself, you lost ownership of a "better" player by bringing up "developing player" early.
I obviously don't see it that way.   I "saved" money by bringing up a developing player rather than paying a declining player.   I could have added two seasons, on the decline, for about 9m. 
10/31/2013 2:29 PM
MikeT23
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That's 9m each. 
10/31/2013 2:30 PM
mchalesarmy
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Just check his line from the season you "saved" money and compare to this season that you don't have him.
Is that a "declining" player, or is that a player who is better than the guy who was called up back when?
10/31/2013 2:32 PM
burnsy483
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You're going to pay this player $X for his career, regardless of when you call him up.  So one could argue that you should pay him $X when he's at his best.  If you called him up earlier than most owners would have, and in that 1st season, he is worse off ratings-wise than he is the season after you lose him, you didn't get the best value for him over his entire Honey Badger career.

That said, nobody can rip you for making that decision, thinking that he was a difference-maker in you making a playoff push.
10/31/2013 2:35 PM
mchalesarmy
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Defensive line comparison:

S20 - 84-70-91-73
S21 - 86-75-93-79
S30 - 87-85-92-90
S31 - ????

Hitting line comparison:

S20 - 78-74-51-74-40
S21 - 83-76-52-80-42
S30 - 86-77-53-84-42
S31 - ????

For fairness you compare S30 to S21, and then next season to S20. S30 is clearly a better player than S21.
And as long as he doesn't decline below his S20 line, S31 will be better than S20 also.
10/31/2013 2:41 PM
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mchalesarmy
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My only contention is that if "declining player" is still better than "developing player", you lost out on the overall "better player".
10/31/2013 2:49 PM
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MikeT23
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FWIW, I think the results of the next couple of seasons will tell the story.    I called him up early and missed the playoffs.   Not so good.   Then I've had a nice run.   Now I won't have him so we'll see what happens.

Mostly I was pointing out that "20 games into a player's 4th season" isn't the only way to play the game.  And I think it's dumb to hold players back when they'll help you.
10/31/2013 3:00 PM
burnsy483
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"And I think it's dumb to hold players back when they'll help you."

I think this is the biggest takeaway here.  Unless you're looking at your team and thinking "if we win 80, I'd be shocked" then call up the guy "too soon" who will make your team better.
10/31/2013 3:21 PM
willsauve
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I usually make the decision based on future commitments to other salaries and what I can piece together for cheap in free agency..  Also if my team is destine to win 70-80 games no matter what I will usually leave the guy down.. If my team is destine to compete for 80-90 I will call them up early if its an upgrade.. If my team is destine to win 100+ I usually leave them down as long as possible. 

If the player is a SP, I usually hold him back 20 games and overwork my other SP's for the 1st 20 games while limiting the prospects IP in the minors..  Not sure if that works the  way I think it does.. But that's what I do..  If its a 1B, RF, LF or DH I usually can find a cheap FA to use until the prospect is 22-23 yrs old and I try to get max development in the minors..  I think it's poor managing if your plan is to hold a guy in the minors for 4-5 seasons and then wait 20 games no matter what.. 
10/31/2013 3:36 PM
MikeT23
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Unless a pitcher is one of my top 3-4, I leave him down for 20.    As I said, they hold their ratings longer.   An example:

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Ivan Bonilla

He's probably somewhere 5-8 on my staff.   Because of off days, I don't need a full staff.    So, once, he gets back to 100%, I'll call him up.  He'll miss 3-4 starts.  Position players are different because they'll miss 20 games.

10/31/2013 3:55 PM
willsauve
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Another big factor is PAT if the players patience is high I'm more likely to bring the guy up earlier as he will stay after his 1st contact if I want to pay him.. 
10/31/2013 5:10 PM
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