Posted by ashamael on 12/6/2013 12:04:00 AM (view original):
two words: extreme outliers.
They happen too often & are the cause of many things that we falsely attribute with grand explanations - explanations that often make a ton of sense. Corrections are one of these things. This realization was a huge moment for me as I quit trying to do what "should" happen and started trying to build a squad that had the least chance of a) outliers occurring and b) those outliers determining the result of my game.
word - do not underestimate the random- the completely unromantic approach to game winning in this engine is simple - line up your stat boxes to minimize negatives, maximize positives, drive efficiency and win the possession battle and above all DO NOT PAY ATTENTION to game by game outcomes - adopt a long term 10+ game by 10+ game approach (the only reason to check in is to manage fatigue issues) - assume wide scale statistical variance as a given DO NOT assume your tiny little coaching options have anything to do with a single game outcome THEY DO NOT. DO NOT ASSUME any 10 or 20 game pattern means anymore than 20 FLIPS OF A NICKLE (you can sometimes get 15 heads in a row, it's not magic, it's just random)
by the end of the season if you are lucky in: a) divisional draw b) conference draw and c) just plain lucky - you may have home court advantage and a bye
DO NOT ASSUME this means anything - the wreckage from the 60 win teams that '2nd round and out' are all around you, lift up your heads - if seble allows that 10 games are not enough to normalize statistical variation then YOU BETTER BE HOLDING THE F-ING RABBIT'S FOOT TIGHT because that series you are in is only 7 games long
take a moment with that, 7 GAMES is less than the 10+ games seble says are required for statistical normalization - CONSIDER that before you start patting yourself on the back for that 2nd round masterpiece - KNOW THIS: once you get to the play offs prayer is more likely to have a bearing on the outcome than your ****** little coaching options (about the only meaningful choices you can make are to max out minutes and pick tempo - the rest is COMPLETE BS)
you know the rest - I guess when I say 'good luck' what we should all take away from this is simple : you can work the numbers to a certain extent and that will improve your chances BUT
that is all this all is really about: CHANCE - you might as well be playing black jack, drafting high efg and low TOs etc is an approach that has a whole lot in common with hitting on 16 and standing on 17 you're working the angles and narrowing the possible outcomes
you know just like in basketba- -er no that has nothing at all to do with this game, does it?
GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL!!!