I'd say it's more poker than blackjack or dice, which are more random. Anyone can have a run of good/bad luck, but the best owners are consistently successful and will win more over time. But I do agree that minimizing the effect of swings is big - don't put too many eggs in one basket, or you're vulnerable to one bad shooting night or a quick foul out killing you (side note: my current team follows this advice HORRIBLY. I depend on TMac for scoring and will lose any game where Gilmore sits with foul trouble). Balance is good.
Also to weigh in to the earlier discussion - I'm a feel/numbers hybrid. I don't ever use spreadsheets to play this game, and I don't take a pure analytical approach, and I try to mix up who I pick for fun, but I am looking a lot at the underlying advanced #s and building my team with certain numbers goals in mind.
I doubt I have much useful to say besides what's been said already, but probably something that's helped me a lot (and continues to guide my team-building) is this: focus on the team as a whole, not individuals. I can't tell you how many times I've seen people say "you need x assists from your point guard" or "you need x rebounds from the 4 and the 5." Poppycock. It doesn't matter where it comes from, just that it's there. That's why the goal in the first two rounds always should be to get as many positives and as few negatives together in 2 guys as you can, so you can fill in later with guys who have big positives in few categories (of which there are many.
Basically you are looking for this in players:
If you can check most of those boxes in your 1st/2nd round picks, you can better afford the guys who give you 2 or 3 of those things later. This is why guys like Jerry Lucas will always be high on my draft board.