For me, a lot depends on how my prospect budget, or potential prospect budget, compares to the rest of the league. After checking your world, it looks like you are #2 in available payroll and with it being over halfway in the IFA season, it is a tough call. With four teams left in the league with over 20M available to spend on an IFA, I doubt he goes for under 20M.
I think the guy is worth the money. Here is a similar guy:
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Alfredo Torrealba
His splits won't be quite as high, but his control will not be as low either.
I'm not sure why you think being 19 means he won't develop. With your 20M scouting, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets within a few points of each of the projections.