Posted by harriswb3 on 1/6/2014 9:30:00 AM (view original):
Noah, while I appreciate your comment...let me assure you (and all the other guys above who have suggestions on a formation that they do not use), I have used every combination available and I have the talent to execute it. Thus far this season I have not thrown a single pass. My intent is NOT to outthink the SIM.....it is to TEST the WB vs the SIM.
I like to think that I've had a pretty good wishbone attack in the past, not only in Heisman, but also in a couple of other worlds under different IDs and as an offensive coordinator for a couple of other teams.
The issue is that the wishbone, as a formation, has been DECREASED in its effectiveness as a formation. At the moment, I'm down 6-0 at the half vs another SIM. I've gained a whopping 79....yep thats right 79 freaking yards while running wide EVERY PLAY. That is complete BS.
At the moment the engine does not appear to account for the other RBs blocking, or the WR blocking. Who knows how the offensive line really functions vs the def line and/or linebackers?
I'm truly on the verge of declaring the bone to be DEAD at the upper levels. I have done a non-scientific poll of coaches who have been using the Bone for a long time and all have the same opinion. If not dead, it is vastly underperforming.
I down loaded your Georgia Southern PBP and analyzed it. Here is what my Excel Stat-O-Matic found;
795 Rush attempts from Wishbone
272 Inside Rush attempts from Wishbone
523 Outside Runs attempts from Wishbone
Inside Rush Attempts Versus;
5-2 Defense: 14 Attempts / 45 yards / 5 Stuffs (36%) / Avg yards per rush 3.2 / Median yards per rush 2.0
3-4 Defense: 54 Attempts / 251 yards / 9 Stuffs (17%) / Avg yards per rush 4.6 / Median yards per rush 4.0
4-3 Defense: 99 Attempts / 395 yards / 20 Stuffs (20%) / Avg yards per rush 4.0 / Median yards per rush 3.0
4-4 Defense: 105 Attempts / 421 yards / 20 Stuffs (19%) / Avg yards per rush 4.0 / Median yards per rush 3.0
Outside Rush Attempts Versus;
5-2 Defense: 48 Attempts / 228 yards / 10 Stuffs (21%) / Avg yards per rush 4.8 / Median yards per rush 3.0
3-4 Defense: 6 Attempts / 30 yards / 0 Stuffs (0%) / Avg yards per rush 5.0 / Median yards per rush 4.5
4-3 Defense: 315 Attempts / 1,630 yards / 88 Stuffs (28%) / Avg yards per rush 5.2 / Median yards per rush 3.0
4-4 Defense: 154 Attempts / 627 yards / 38 Stuffs (25%) / Avg yards per rush 4.1 / Median yards per rush 3.0
For my teams, I see Median yards per rush attempt almost always at 3.0 yards. So anything higher than 3.0 median yards per rush attempt is pretty good IMO.
I think this current engine has too many runs for 0 or less than zero yards and too many big runs. This makes the average yards per rush reasonable (4.0 to 6.0 yards per rush), but in reality it is sort of feast or famine. For example, if you have 10 rush attempts and on 9 attempts you get 0 yards and on the 10th attempt you get 50 yards it will appear as thought you have a 5 yards per rush average. In reality your offense cannot function like this as you will go 3 and out nearly every time.
I would like to see the real life distributions for RBs to see how it compare to GD. My hunch is that real life data has fewer long runs at the right side of the tail and fewer runs for zero or negative yards than GD.