1/6/2014 2:12 PM
Posted by rlslmshdy on 1/6/2014 1:50:00 PM (view original):
Well I guess one way to look at it is it maybe realistic.  How long has it been since the wishbone has been effectively ran in D-1 in real life lol.  But seriously and my opinions dont carry alot of weight since ive only played 4 seasons so far.  Do you guys think the TE and FB position are being undervalued in the blocking equation.  Again im a newbie but this season I just finished I would have thought my outside running game would have been more effective than it was given the blocking TEs and FB that I have.  Plus my RB had over 80 elus. and pretty good speed.  I thought going in to the season that some games I would absolutely roll over some of the less talented teams but that never really happened.  I do think that formation IQ plays a bigger role in 3.0.  What do the veterans think?
I agree.  As well as WR blocking.  I don't think any BLK is taken into account except OL.


1/6/2014 2:31 PM
ok...apparently no one got my comment. My comment was merely stating that the game plan dice game is more important than positional blocking things. I was frustatingly saying that it doesn't matter what your TE or RB is capable of doing in the blocking game because if the other team guesses right your going to be shut down most of the time over a large sample. The problem is that gameplanning is more important then talent. Therefore, because most people run almost exclusively out of the wishbone the wishbone is thus less effective. The added bonus of your TE and extra running backs blocking does not make a dent in the advantage of calling the play right.

If you run a 100% run defense...the other team (unless you are talking about a 30% difference in talent) is not going to be able to run the ball on you effectively. This is not always the case in passing because of passing depths and coverage actually is taken into account, but it is absolutely true in the running game based on both the beta and my experience so far in the paying game.

1/6/2014 2:31 PM
Until the dice game is turned into something other then a dice game you won't be able to run against a Sim with the wishbone. I don't care what other steps or what personnel you have.
1/6/2014 2:36 PM
I agree with you 100 % noah
1/6/2014 2:59 PM (edited)
I am hopeless against Sims, with a 2nd year team.
One thing I noticed though at this point (0-4) is that the Sims seem to spring the big play for a score much more frequently. My small sample size has 13 TD's by Sims against me in 3 games, with 9 of those scores being 20+ yards.
In the 1 game I've had versus a very good (top 10 ranked Miami(Fla)), they scored 5 TD's against me, but none were over 20 yards. It is likely that Miami had a ground it out game plan, but at the same time they never 'bust out a big play', despite being much, much more talented than my team. The Sim teams are comparable in talent to my own.

At first I thought this might be a product of "guessing" the wrong play and getting burnt, but that only happened twice in the 9 big plays over 3 games. In my most recent game there were 3 big scores  - 2nd and 15, I defend the pass and the Sim passes for a 33 yard TD; 3rd and 8, I defend the pass and the Sim passes for a 37 yard TD; and 3rd and 1, I defend the run and the Sim runs for a 41 yard TD.

1/6/2014 3:20 PM
Posted by harriswb3 on 1/6/2014 9:30:00 AM (view original):
Noah, while I appreciate your comment...let me assure you (and all the other guys above who have suggestions on a formation that they do not use), I have used every combination available and I have the talent to execute it.  Thus far this season I have not thrown a single pass.  My intent is NOT to outthink the SIM.....it is to TEST the WB vs the SIM.

I like to think that I've had a pretty good wishbone attack in the past, not only in Heisman, but also in a couple of other worlds under different IDs and as an offensive coordinator for a couple of other teams.

The issue is that the wishbone, as a formation, has been DECREASED in its effectiveness as a formation.  At the moment, I'm down 6-0 at the half vs another SIM.  I've gained a whopping 79....yep thats right 79 freaking yards while running wide EVERY PLAY.  That is complete BS.

At the moment the engine does not appear to account for the other RBs blocking, or the WR blocking.  Who knows how the offensive line really functions vs the def line and/or linebackers?

I'm truly on the verge of declaring the bone to be DEAD at the upper levels.  I have done a non-scientific poll of coaches who have been using the Bone for a long time and all have the same opinion.  If not dead, it is vastly underperforming.
harriswb3,

I down loaded your Georgia Southern PBP and analyzed it.  Here is what my Excel Stat-O-Matic found;

795 Rush attempts from Wishbone
272 Inside Rush attempts from Wishbone
523 Outside Runs attempts from Wishbone

Inside Rush Attempts Versus;
5-2 Defense: 14 Attempts / 45 yards / 5 Stuffs (36%) / Avg yards per rush 3.2 / Median yards per rush 2.0
3-4 Defense: 54 Attempts / 251 yards / 9 Stuffs (17%) / Avg yards per rush 4.6 / Median yards per rush 4.0
4-3 Defense: 99 Attempts / 395 yards / 20 Stuffs (20%) / Avg yards per rush 4.0 / Median yards per rush 3.0
4-4 Defense: 105 Attempts / 421 yards / 20 Stuffs (19%) / Avg yards per rush 4.0 / Median yards per rush 3.0

Outside Rush Attempts Versus;
5-2 Defense: 48 Attempts / 228 yards / 10 Stuffs (21%) / Avg yards per rush 4.8 / Median yards per rush 3.0
3-4 Defense: 6 Attempts / 30 yards / 0 Stuffs (0%) / Avg yards per rush 5.0 / Median yards per rush 4.5
4-3 Defense: 315 Attempts / 1,630 yards / 88 Stuffs (28%) / Avg yards per rush 5.2 / Median yards per rush 3.0
4-4 Defense: 154 Attempts / 627 yards / 38 Stuffs (25%) / Avg yards per rush 4.1 / Median yards per rush 3.0

For my teams, I see Median yards per rush attempt almost always at 3.0 yards.  So anything higher than 3.0 median yards per rush attempt is pretty good IMO.

I think this current engine has too many runs for 0 or less than zero yards and too many big runs.  This makes the average yards per rush reasonable (4.0 to 6.0 yards per rush), but in reality it is sort of feast or famine.  For example, if you have 10 rush attempts and on 9 attempts you get 0 yards and on the 10th attempt you get 50 yards it will appear as thought you have a 5 yards per rush average.  In reality your offense cannot function like this as you will go 3 and out nearly every time.

I would like to see the real life distributions for RBs to see how it compare to GD.  My hunch is that real life data has fewer long runs at the right side of the tail and fewer runs for zero or negative yards than GD.

1/6/2014 3:43 PM
The idea that this should be compared to a "dice game" (APBA, Strato-Matic, etc...) is absurd. Game planning should compliment what talent we have on our teams, not be a deciding factor (unless the teams are even). I do run the WB a lot and its not having the effect that it should against SIMs. In comparing ur OL to their DL and vice versa you should be able to tell who is going to win. Bottom line this isn't happening as it should.
1/6/2014 4:14 PM
Wow! Really in depth research project chalvorson. How long did that take you?
1/6/2014 4:26 PM
Posted by zsap on 1/6/2014 4:14:00 PM (view original):
Wow! Really in depth research project chalvorson. How long did that take you?
that all depends.  It took me 2 minutes to download harriswb3's PBP and copy & paste into my analyzer spreadsheet.  It took me a hour to create the analyzer (which i did about 2 months ago).  So, once the analyzer is created, it is very fast to look at data.
1/6/2014 4:42 PM
Nice.  Strong work, chalvorson.


1/6/2014 4:44 PM
Posted by starfinder77 on 1/6/2014 3:43:00 PM (view original):
The idea that this should be compared to a "dice game" (APBA, Strato-Matic, etc...) is absurd. Game planning should compliment what talent we have on our teams, not be a deciding factor (unless the teams are even). I do run the WB a lot and its not having the effect that it should against SIMs. In comparing ur OL to their DL and vice versa you should be able to tell who is going to win. Bottom line this isn't happening as it should.
I have to agree. Far too great of a reward for getting a play call right. Or penalty for calling the wrong play.
1/6/2014 4:45 PM
I guess I don't understand the uproar over the (new) importance of formation IQ.  It seems to make perfect sense to me.  If you have a team of guys who do nothing but run, lift weights and watch film, you have a bunch of strong, fast guys who can watch TV.  A track team.  If they play a game of football against a team that runs, lifts weights, watches film and actually practices football (a football team), they will very often lose said football game to said football team.  It would take an enormous disparity in physical prowess to make up the difference.
1/6/2014 4:46 PM
Posted by chalvorson on 1/6/2014 4:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zsap on 1/6/2014 4:14:00 PM (view original):
Wow! Really in depth research project chalvorson. How long did that take you?
that all depends.  It took me 2 minutes to download harriswb3's PBP and copy & paste into my analyzer spreadsheet.  It took me a hour to create the analyzer (which i did about 2 months ago).  So, once the analyzer is created, it is very fast to look at data.
Maybe you should replace oriolefan if that is the case. I'm sorry he is not getting this thing right.
1/6/2014 5:01 PM (edited)
chalvorson, my tool cannot get as much detail as yours, as quickly, but here is a comparison to Season 78.  Same team (obviously different players).  Season 78 was a down year for this team after a bunch of graduations.  Went 10-5 and was bounced out in first round of playoffs.  I've had much better results in other seasons...I pretty much have all my data if you want to run it through your tool.

VS ALL defenses (I can separate, but that will take me more time
The MEDIAN for inside and outside runs is 3.00 ypc

Vs Specific Defenses the AVERAGES are:

Row Labels Num of Plays Total Yards Avg Yds
Wishbone 781 4107 5.26
Inside      
Run 378 1981 5.24
4-3 217 1301 6.00
5-2 32 172 5.38
4-4 118 473 4.01
3-4 11 35 3.18
Outside      
Run 403 2126 5.28
5-2 32 180 5.63
4-3 211 1159 5.49
4-4 144 726 5.04
3-4 16 61 3.81
Grand Total 781 4107 5.26   
1/6/2014 5:02 PM
BTW, I have sent in a ticket on this issue with the Bone and they are going to look at it.
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