ODL 46 Evals Topic

Posted by jhsukow on 2/5/2014 11:17:00 PM (view original):
First two rounds are posted. Hoping to get "live" by the end of the 4th round.
Keep up the good work! 
2/5/2014 11:59 PM
there's an annoying amount of defense in our division.
2/6/2014 8:23 AM
Good thing I didn't get to pair Wade and Dr. J in the same back-court, or it could be worse. :)
2/6/2014 10:23 AM
East is updated
2/7/2014 1:29 PM
I'm loving your commentary so far.  Especially two word opinion on Curry; "Solid Pick."  It made me chuckle.     
2/7/2014 4:04 PM
Interested to see what you think of Wade/Payton compared to Wade/Penny (my last Wade-pair, which made it to the finals). Payton doesn't shoot as well, but he gives me threes, plays really clean (2.5 fp48) for 42+ minutes. Enough assists to compliment Wade and 90 D plus 16 creb. Plus, I like Glove and don't use him very often (if ever?). I like Penny, also, but he went before my pick.
2/7/2014 6:15 PM
I'm drafting a  different way this time around.  We see how it goes, this wont be a dominating rebounding team but it will have enough. Here it is so far

Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk% D
John Stockton 94-95 Jazz PG 18.9 57.6 44.7 60.7 2.5 7.8 42.9 3.1 0.5 80
Scottie Pippen 94-95 Bulls SF 26.3 51.9 34.3 52.2 6.5 17.6 16.9 3.5 1.8 96
Andrei Kirilenko 03-04 Jazz PF 22.2 47.5 33.8 47.9 8.9 16.5 12.4 2.5 5 100
Chris Webber 96-97 Bullets PF 24.6 53.4 39.5 54.3 9.7 19.7 14.6 2 2.9 80

2/8/2014 6:54 AM (edited)
It looks like you're trying to prove the high assist% to high fg% correlation theory. For my sake, I hope it doesn't work ;)
2/8/2014 2:37 AM
Funny how easy these were when I was at work, but during the weekend I find myself doing other things.

Planning on having the first 5 rounds completed by 2 PM Central time tomorrow.
2/9/2014 9:57 PM
I'm kind of offended that you would use Central time. 


2/9/2014 11:07 PM
I really like eleibowitz's team. And I am not just saying that because he took both Kirilenko and Webber right ahead of me when I really was hoping to get one of them in the 4th round. I almost took Stockon in the 1st, (am killing it in an open league with him right now 11 game winning streak and counting) but was determined to stop taking a PG in the 1st round every draft.

And then had to pass on Big O in the second because I couldn't afford him. That really really hurt.
2/10/2014 7:29 AM

"B. Roy, JR Smith


Haha. I wonder how many times RL JR Smith gets that reaction when he walks in a room. Or joins a team. Or wakes up in the morning.
2/10/2014 12:13 PM
2 isnt going to be possible. should be back on later today.
2/10/2014 2:59 PM
jh: definitely playing Paul (37mpg) and Calderon (31mpg) side by side. Reb is a concern but Paul does have a nice Dreb number for a PG. Best thing is 75% Ast in the backcourt, but with two low TOV% guys. So hopefully getting the best of the Ast% world without suffering the 20% TOV hit that comes with Stockton, Nash, Kidd, etc.
2/10/2014 4:22 PM
"Then we get to Walker. That top season does provide more DREB. IDK about that pick, its important, I think, to have an identity, but maybe could have gone somewhere else with that pick."

IMO Walker can be a great player at this cap level if you do a number of specific things around him to maximize the value of what he brings. Basically Walker is a .5 usage adequate D PG that can completely dominate for a squad on the boards. His oreb% is 6.0 and his dreb% is 19.1, so his 25.1% creb% goes a very long way against teams with the likes of Stockton, Nash, Price et el at PG. His 2883 minutes cost just under $6.1mill, so he provides about 36mpg and in a league where it’s difficult to find 19,300 quality minutes, hence you are able to allocate more money to the other positions or your reserves because Walker’s price per minute is near bottom basement for a useful player in this league.

As the WIS FAQ tells us when it comes to rebounding: “We look at each one-on-one matchup for this situation (shooting team is still considered offense) to determine if one player has a better than average advantage over his opponent. These players will get a boost to their percentages, while their opponents will see their percentages drop.” IMO the ratio of dreb to oreb in the sim is generally in the 2.5 to 1 range. Working from that assumption regarding “better than average advantage” you can see what Walker can generate 6.5 to 8 or so rebounds in the SIm and is good for a dozen or so triple-doubles over the course of the season. His 6.0 oreb% means the opposing PG has to have a dreb% of at least 15 or an advantage over him. There are only guys that high at PG in the sim and many guys are below 10%, so Walker can bring a nice oreb advantage. His 19.1 dreb% means the opposing PG has to have at least a 7.64 oreb% for an advantage over Walker, which is even more rare in the Sim. And MANY PG’s are in the 2-3 oreb% range, so Walker can get a TON of dreb’s for a squad.

Walker brings a just below average .076 pf rate, a just adequate D rating of 61 and a below average FGA/FTA ratio. His RL tov% of 18.1% is high, but within the expected range in the sim for a PG. The tov% in the sim tends to come in below this number because his 13.6 usage rate is in the bottom tier and he rarely goes above two turnovers in the game. His ast% of 24.8% is lower than you want for a starting PG but can be addressed at the other positions. Not that A/T ratio matters much in the sim, but his is usually in the 4 to 1 range.

His shooting is a complete nightmare, and he has ZERO range. 68.7% FT% is very weak, efg of 45.5% blows, but keep in mind that as a bottom tier usage guy it’s virtually impossible that he will shoot you out of a game.

My strategy for the use of Walker is/was to put an 80+D guy at SG, draft at least three players with an ast% over 10% (currently Ho Grant and Walton), and add as many triples as possible. Part of my plan here is to maximize the usage of the 6-point usage tier Superman, Walker helps in that regard. Also I want to take a high volume high 3pt% player and generally the trade-off for that type of player is a serious lack of rebounding. As of now I plan to use the 93-94 Ho Grant and the 11-12 Faried to fill 48 mpg at SF, so when I run with Walker, SF, Walton, and Superman my SG can shoot triples all day and NEVER be needed for a rebound.

The .5 usage tier Walker also brings the issue of staying out of the team penalty. My answer for this issue is to keep at least three two-point usage tier guys at the SG,SF, and PF/C positions at all times. I may still draft a 6-point back-up for Howard, or (as I am leaning toward) take the ½ season 4-point better passing version of Walton, giving me a minimum of 10.5 usage points at all times and forcing many a possession in Howard’s direction.

2/10/2014 4:27 PM
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ODL 46 Evals Topic

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