ODL 46 Evals Topic

theyard may have the best team. Ewing in the 6th??  There's def a short season to be had to back up Admiral. Melo behind Dr J is perfect.  Love Porter as a 3rd scorer.  Only risk may be too few ast. It isn't below the floor or anything but it looks to be <60%. Still, the 2 100Defenders are just rock solid.
2/10/2014 7:12 PM
Solid job on the evals jhsukow. You are one of the few guys that doesn't see Westbrook as a blown pick. At least he adds some freshness to the league, even his haters can't deny that.

Ironically I'm someone that (at the time) in RL thought Westbrook kept OKC from having any chance to win an NBA title, too damn greedy of a PG to have with KD. Then I saw what happened to OKC last year in the playoffs when he went down. Maybe in RL they should have tried to move Westbrook and hang on to Harden, but they made the decision they did and we'll get to see over the next few years how that all plays out for them.
2/12/2014 1:18 PM
I think moving Harden instead of Westbrook was a terrible decision. Why you'd keep a volume shooting point guard with Durant is beyond me.
2/12/2014 1:26 PM
ever see james harden play defense?

no?...didnt think so...no one has

westbrook plays both ends...and dont forget who disappeared in the finals against the heat...i think they made the right decision...irl advanced stats dont tell the full story of a player

2/12/2014 1:56 PM
I've seen Harden play in person several times.  The guy is LAZY.  He's probably the most overrated player in the NBA right now.  
2/12/2014 2:32 PM
The thunder's offensive efficiency was league-best before harden left. They (correctly) guessed that their offensive efficiency would stay very elite without him because of internal development (durant, westbrook, ibaka, lamb, jackson gaining in skill as they progressed). It's extremely hard to push an offense past a certain level of efficiency, and the thunder were toeing that line. Harden would make their offense better, but there's a point of diminishing returns and the Thunder were more or less at that point.

Meanwhile, their defense at that point was good, but not yet at the elite levels of efficiency they reached last year and this year. Harden was by FAR their worst defender among their players who played significant minutes, while Westbrook was quickly becoming a plus defender. I didn't really like the trade at the time, espeically when they could have held on to harden for a year and then made a decision a year later, but I understood it given their owner's financial directive. And I DEFINITELY understand choosing westbrook over harden, given the context of the first paragraph.

2/12/2014 3:05 PM (edited)
Posted by natenoy on 2/10/2014 4:27:00 PM (view original):
"Then we get to Walker. That top season does provide more DREB. IDK about that pick, its important, I think, to have an identity, but maybe could have gone somewhere else with that pick."

IMO Walker can be a great player at this cap level if you do a number of specific things around him to maximize the value of what he brings. Basically Walker is a .5 usage adequate D PG that can completely dominate for a squad on the boards. His oreb% is 6.0 and his dreb% is 19.1, so his 25.1% creb% goes a very long way against teams with the likes of Stockton, Nash, Price et el at PG. His 2883 minutes cost just under $6.1mill, so he provides about 36mpg and in a league where it’s difficult to find 19,300 quality minutes, hence you are able to allocate more money to the other positions or your reserves because Walker’s price per minute is near bottom basement for a useful player in this league.

As the WIS FAQ tells us when it comes to rebounding: “We look at each one-on-one matchup for this situation (shooting team is still considered offense) to determine if one player has a better than average advantage over his opponent. These players will get a boost to their percentages, while their opponents will see their percentages drop.” IMO the ratio of dreb to oreb in the sim is generally in the 2.5 to 1 range. Working from that assumption regarding “better than average advantage” you can see what Walker can generate 6.5 to 8 or so rebounds in the SIm and is good for a dozen or so triple-doubles over the course of the season. His 6.0 oreb% means the opposing PG has to have a dreb% of at least 15 or an advantage over him. There are only guys that high at PG in the sim and many guys are below 10%, so Walker can bring a nice oreb advantage. His 19.1 dreb% means the opposing PG has to have at least a 7.64 oreb% for an advantage over Walker, which is even more rare in the Sim. And MANY PG’s are in the 2-3 oreb% range, so Walker can get a TON of dreb’s for a squad.

Walker brings a just below average .076 pf rate, a just adequate D rating of 61 and a below average FGA/FTA ratio. His RL tov% of 18.1% is high, but within the expected range in the sim for a PG. The tov% in the sim tends to come in below this number because his 13.6 usage rate is in the bottom tier and he rarely goes above two turnovers in the game. His ast% of 24.8% is lower than you want for a starting PG but can be addressed at the other positions. Not that A/T ratio matters much in the sim, but his is usually in the 4 to 1 range.

His shooting is a complete nightmare, and he has ZERO range. 68.7% FT% is very weak, efg of 45.5% blows, but keep in mind that as a bottom tier usage guy it’s virtually impossible that he will shoot you out of a game.

My strategy for the use of Walker is/was to put an 80+D guy at SG, draft at least three players with an ast% over 10% (currently Ho Grant and Walton), and add as many triples as possible. Part of my plan here is to maximize the usage of the 6-point usage tier Superman, Walker helps in that regard. Also I want to take a high volume high 3pt% player and generally the trade-off for that type of player is a serious lack of rebounding. As of now I plan to use the 93-94 Ho Grant and the 11-12 Faried to fill 48 mpg at SF, so when I run with Walker, SF, Walton, and Superman my SG can shoot triples all day and NEVER be needed for a rebound.

The .5 usage tier Walker also brings the issue of staying out of the team penalty. My answer for this issue is to keep at least three two-point usage tier guys at the SG,SF, and PF/C positions at all times. I may still draft a 6-point back-up for Howard, or (as I am leaning toward) take the ½ season 4-point better passing version of Walton, giving me a minimum of 10.5 usage points at all times and forcing many a possession in Howard’s direction.

This is all well and good - I agree Walker is solid at this cap and have used him - but if there's one thing that seems to be a theme for some of your teams, nate, it's that you miss the forest for the trees. You get so focused in on the concept of making something unique work that you are blinded to the overall success of the team.  I've said before that I love the energy and experimentation you bring to the SIM, and I agree, but you've got to keep a better big-picture focus for your "experiment" teams to give them a chance to be pretty good.

I don't really see this team working really well, but I've been wrong plenty of times before.

2/12/2014 8:43 PM
i don't see it either, tar, yet jhsukow has nate winning the midwest... shows you what i know. darrell walker has always reminded me a bit of tom gola. one of those kinds of players that brings a lot to the table, but then wants 2nds and 3rds in a family of 12. haha. good luck 2u nate. interesting squad. love horace grant
2/13/2014 1:40 AM
"J. O'Neal, A. Brooks

I get the logic here. You need low use/3's  and a backup for Shaq. Good job getting the usage you need for Shaq, but that's going to be a rough substitution."

Nah, I only drafted Jermaine so I could use the team name "O'Neal before me" lol.

Actually, my plan is to START Jermaine at the 4 and play him 34 mins.  Jeyson Williams plays 16 mins behind him and 7 mins behind Shaq with that awesome 19 OREB/29 DREB percentage season of his.  A couple of undrafted D oriented guys back up Shaq and Jayson

2/13/2014 1:11 PM
updated. Playoff predictions may change when i see the scrubs. still need to get "stock" updated, but we will see about that.
2/14/2014 10:27 AM
2/14/2014 7:00 PM
I'd rank the Pacific like this:

TRB (tie)
tarheel (tie)

Might be underselling scud's team - any team with Wilt will be very good - but I can't get over the terrible defense at the 3/4.  If his guys are able to score 125 a game, though, it might not really matter.

I always have a hard time getting a read on these rough-and-tumble defensive teams like TRB's. His team looks like it will struggle to score and fouls an absurd amount, but it will shut everyone else down. Who knows.

I'll be disappointed if this division has fewer than 4 playoff teams, though. Don't let me down, guys.

2/15/2014 10:40 AM
dang the pacific has a great group of owners at least you guys gets to beat up on bandit.
2/15/2014 2:30 PM
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ODL 46 Evals Topic

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