Posted by noah23 on 2/6/2014 11:37:00 PM (view original):
I dunno slid.....all I know is that the responses (and there have been three separate ones) have only shown one thing. Oriole's version of acceptable deviation in results and mine are so far removed from each other, it seems it will never even be attempted to be bridged.
He is proud of the standard deviation in this engine. I guess he doesn't care about the outlier numbers. What I care about is the outlier numbers. They should not exist, or they should be 1 in 100 not 3 in 10. I want this game to work. I want to play this game. Its clear I no longer understand anything about it, and what I now understand about results I do not like. These deviations are happening with NO INJURIES. What happens when injuries are introduced? is the worst team in the league going to be able to compete with the best randomly?
I'm not a statistician by any means, but I *think* you are looking at the numbers wrong.
In a small sample size - and 10 games is VERY small - there is a much higher
chance that your distribution of results will be skewed - the sample size is not significant enough to overcome the "random" nature of running a simulation. Plus, I don't think you can take the spread of one results (home team scores) and add them to the spread of a second set of result (away team scores) to get an "overall" spread. The two sets of scores are mostly independent of each other (I say mostly because a higher score by one team could result in more possessions for the other team.) You could take a look at score spread per game, but again, the sample size is so small as to be statistically insignificant. The more games you have, the more reliable feel you for how the engine works on the whole.
The standard deviation SHOULD be what you are looking at if you are wanting the game to produce similar results each time the sim is run.