All Forums > SimLeague Football > Theme Leagues > NFL DRAFT LEAGUE--Rosters and commentary
2/10/2014 3:05 AM (edited)
A very interesting draft so far.

With the $75 million salary cap, I figured we might get one or two defenses and offensive lines drafted so far, but never dreamed we would have six or seven defenses and four or five offensive lines drafted a few picks into the 2nd round.

 I agree with what someone said, that OJ Simpson falling to number nine was a surprise and an absolute steal there.  I was happy to get AP where I did in the 13 hole, although I have only used him in one open league and he wasn't that impressive. I'm hoping that was a fluke.

Only one wide receiver being drafted in round one shocked me. ;And no tight ends. Someone's gonna get a steal there, as there are a lot of tight ends, but really only a half dozen or so truly elite ones.

I thought Kurt Warner late in the 1st round was also a major steal.

If someone wants to try doing a team by team evaluation, please go for it. ;genco would be the perfect choice, but I dunno if he has the time to do so. IOr tonyvoss. ;f no one volunteers, I will try to do them once we get four or five rounds in.

Feel free to use this thread to make any comments about your team or someone elses, trash talk and so on. Have fun
2/10/2014 7:54 AM
Thanks Amerk, for this thread, and for your admin work in general. One of th efun parts of a draft is that we get so much more out of one league than the normal "do it yourself" team building, PLUS we might learn lots of stuff from others. I'm sure I will!

My theories on DEF:

1  We all want "value" picks; those that are worth more than they cost. Given Ds are around 30M, it makes sense that owners could find a few that are maybe 500K bargians. You really can't expect to save 500K on a QB or RB or WR. Plus, Ds are complicated, with 6 factors going into their price.
2  Most feel D is generally undervalued/overpriced, but of course with a 75M cap you really have too much left over (redudantly great offense) if you only put <25M toward D.
3  I analyzed the WIS DEF prices by a simple regression analysis. It showed that the "cost" of the 6 factors was something like (per rating point) Run 97 Pass 95 Sack 20 Int 41, Drive 74, RZ 126.
3  Almost all agree that RED ZONE is a commodity WIS overprices, so I can see why taking the Chargers D with high pass and run and low red zone is a great move.
4  I assess that in this league, INT are overpriced, since most QBs with this cap won't throw many; I'm not sure a "90" INT D will gain all that many. 
5  I'm guessing DRIVE is undervalued; first, most owners are agressive with 4th down tries, and stopping them would be a big deal. Second, how else to stop these great Offenses, without a tough 3rd down D?
 
So I am hoping a combo of the 2008 Steelers 94 Pass and 100 Drive ratings will yield much success when facing 3rd-and-medium or 3rd-and-long. Their Red Zone is lower than any of the few more expensive Defs than this one, and the Run+Pass (with a tweak of Sack) rating is higher than any except the Big Bears D.
I figure spending 37M on D still leaves 30-33 ish for OFF and 5-8 for P/K/special teams.

Lastly, I had little intent to draft a TE in rd2, but the rest of the QB look a lot alike, the RB look alike and expensive, and in the end there were Very few TE with high Rec rating and decent stamina, and Jackie can even run the ball well about once / game. Now I can wait for my WR until late. Well, that's the Plan as of Monday morning. We'll see how it looks by the weekend!


 
2/10/2014 7:57 AM
I thought Brady at #8 in rd1 was a great pick.
2/10/2014 11:09 AM (edited)
Posted by tomhanrahan on 2/10/2014 7:57:00 AM (view original):
I thought Brady at #8 in rd1 was a great pick.
unbelievably awesome and I congratulate you on your championship..............seriously, you will win.

A tough aspect of evaluating is the "depth' of a draft choice.......For instance I doubt the Bears D will go with 1942 in a $75M Cap...but they have '48, '63, the Great Ditka D.....and many choice down the line....this flexibility leaves their owner the option of drafting as many great players as he can and still have a Defense to fit the spending....
This is primarily a 75-Million dollar league....the draft just means you need to show no loyalty to one individual player....I didn't get Montana, but Warner should work just fine....
2/10/2014 6:22 PM
"... I congratulate you on your championship..............seriously, you will win."

this coming from the guy who has 16 trophies to my 2? At any rate, I expect and even hope for some constructive critique (public flogging, private counsel, pity parties) during the draft. It's the only way I will get better. 

2/10/2014 8:24 PM
Briefly, my thinking on draft strategy (explaining why I, like others at the back of the draft, went DEF/O-line with my first two picks):

I was mainly thinking about positional scarcity.  By definition, there are only about 30-35 (not sure how all the franchise continuity stuff works out) teams available for DEF/O-line, while there are many more options at QB/RB/etc.  Plus a lot of the best defenses/O-line are from the same franchise. Not saying there isn't some quality drop-off there, but I'd much rather be the 24th guy taking a QB or RB than the 24th guy taking a DEF or O-Line.

As for my specific picks, the '54 Eagles D is one of only 7 with 80+ run and pass D. Add in a huge 97 sack rating, solid 85 drive rating, and for $33 mil I think it's a pretty good deal (especially because people seem to think INT and Red Zone are the most overpriced defensive ratings).

I was really hoping to add either the Rams or Browns O-line, too, which I thought were definitely the two best.  I didn't have much preference among the next group - I thought Packers/Titans/Texans were all about even - so I went with Packers because they have a few really good OL to give me some salary flexibility (although I'll admit I didn't know Texans/Chiefs was the same franchise, or I might have gone with them instead).  But I have a good, balanced OL, which should allow me to go multiple directions in building my offense.

2/10/2014 8:37 PM
I think its a huge mistake to take a RB in the first round, considering a RB by committee approach can be just as effective as taking an expensive stud RB (if the committee has a comparable stamina/rating)

That's why it is more important to grab the best QB, Defense and OL which all have better value. At pick 23" a stud QB was out of reach so I had to grab the best OL and one of the best Ds in the 31-34 million range.

good luck everyone.
2/10/2014 8:45 PM
Im pretty new to the nfl sim so I had a question. Do players that played a 12 or 14 game season get their stats adjusted to a 16 game season? Or do you have to compensate for thise missed games? I am guessing the 100 durability means that they are adjusted.
2/10/2014 8:47 PM
Posted by kacyon on 2/10/2014 8:46:00 PM (view original):
Im pretty new to the nfl sim so I had a question. Do players that played a 12 or 14 game season get their stats adjusted to a 16 game season? Or do you have to compensate for thise missed games? I am guessing the 100 durability means that they are adjusted.
they're adjusted. Ignore total stats and just look at the ratings.
2/11/2014 2:10 AM
I guess my question to those who chose defenses and/or O lines primarily in the 2nd half of the 1st round and are advocating them would be....

Would you still draft a defense or O line if you had a top ten pick?
2/11/2014 2:17 AM
For those who are highly touting defenses early, now you see why I resisted suggestions that a $75 mill cap was too high.  I too am anxious to see how teams with grteat offenses with more skill players drafted early will fare against great defenses with perhaps lesser offenses with skill players drafted later.

It gives everyone a chance to see something different than a typical open league, which we all know is slanted toward offensive success.  Plus everyone will have more money to decide whether to spend more on kickers or special teams, or do they go with better offensive depth at skill positions?

I hope everyone enjoys this league idea, because I could see doing one right after another after another, like the ODL (original draft league) in basketball
2/11/2014 9:12 AM
Posted by amerk1180 on 2/11/2014 2:10:00 AM (view original):
I guess my question to those who chose defenses and/or O lines primarily in the 2nd half of the 1st round and are advocating them would be....

Would you still draft a defense or O line if you had a top ten pick?
If I had a top 3 pick, I would have taken Rodgers, Manning and Brady in that order.  

After that I would go for a defense first. 
2/11/2014 12:20 PM
In doing all this research I was thinking that a Franchise League using the complete player pool would be very interesting.
2/11/2014 9:21 PM
glen87 the only owner with no D AND no QB. But with his running attack, he won't need to throw very often!
2/11/2014 10:08 PM
Posted by tomhanrahan on 2/11/2014 9:21:00 PM (view original):
glen87 the only owner with no D AND no QB. But with his running attack, he won't need to throw very often!

yeah but will he be able to find a decent OL for them to run behind? I'd like his plan a lot better if he had taken an OL instead of Harrison.

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