I have spent a decent amount of time thinking about the decision tree. They released the whole tree for the baseball SIM about 5 years ago. It was fascinating and quite frankly, pretty good. The math geeks over there are pretty impressive and almost unilaterally very knowledgeable about the game. Other than a few minor squabbles and one unclear sentence we all more or less understand and agree with its logic. It’s nice to know how the game works.
When I started playing HD, I immediately looked for a similar document but couldn't find one. There is something in the NBA SIM FAQ but I don't think it is very detailed.
Through observation, logic, and my knowledge of the baseball event tree (assuming the programming is similar), I think the games calculations go in order something like this:
1. Does the team start their offense?
The offense probably uses team pass, speed, bh, IQ, ATH heavily weighted towards the guards vs the defense's ATH, SPD, DEF, and IQ. I assume that press teams get some sort of positive multiplier.
I kinda assume there are situational modifiers as well. Press teams probably get an advantage on made baskets, if there is a steal in the backcourt the new offensive team gets a bonus, stuff like that.
If yes, go to 2. If no, there is a turnover and start a possession for the opposing team.
2. Decide who shoots the ball.
I think this is an equation that factors in:
Offensive player’s distribution ratio for current players on the court
Offensive players “openness” value which is probably something ATH/SPD/IQ vs DEF/ATH/IQ/SPEED
3. Does the shooter turn the ball over?
(team passing probably plays a role in this)
If yes, start a new possession. In no, go to #4
4. Is it a 2 or 3 point shot?
Determined by +/- settings of player, defense and maybe ratio of shooter’s lp:per.
5. Is the shooter fouled?
If yes and a shooting foul, determine if FT is good.
- If yes, start a new possession.
- If no, jump to #7.
If yes and not a shooting foul, start over with #1.
If no, go to #6.
6. Does the shot go in?
(there might be a step in here like “determine what attributes are used for the shot”)
If yes, determine if there is an assist and start a new possession.
If no, determine if there is a block and go to #7.
7. Does the offense get the rebound?
If yes, determine if there is a tip in attempt or the offense resets and proceed back to #6 or #1.
If no, start a new possession.
Working with this as a base (assuming it’s reasonably close to being accurate), you can then attempt to analyze what factors are important in each event and look for trends like:
My slower PG tends to turn the ball over in the press
My high LP SF never misses a tip in
This is a huge work in progress for me and I haven’t really had time to analyze and look for patterns other than “getting a feel”. In my defense, it’s only been 3 years, I am sure I will get around to it….
I welcome any critique, missed factors, or other general comments. I like to talk about this sort of stuff.