Amateur Draft, Age, Progression, Make up Topic

mayeshayes
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Rather than being the new guy that asks who I should draft, I am going to ask for you guys to educate me a bit. I am brand new to HBD and have the 1st pick in the upcoming draft. I have asked 2 very experienced owners this question and got 2 very different answers so I need more input.

There are 5 players at the top of the draft projected to top out between 86-88 overall (i understand overall can be misleading). I like the #1 player on the board a lot but he is a 22 year old pitcher with a make up of 38. It scares the crap out of me that already being 22 with such a low make up means he will top out quickly and wont reach his projections... by alot. So my question is how much do you guys put into consideration age and make up when drafting. I know age has an effect on IFAs but not so sure it has as much impact on the amateur draft guys.

Thank you in advance!
3/11/2014 9:43 AM
dedelman
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1) Age has a modest but measurable effect on development for college players.  It's not like IFAs-- a 22 year old still figures to make, typically, 12-15 points of improvement in key categories, obviously with some variability-- but for draft prospects I lower my expectations by about 2 points per key category for each year of age over 18.
2) Makeup is similarly real but modest in impact, in my opinion, although I feel less certain that I am right about this than I do about age.  As long as the makeup isn't really low (say, under 30) I generally see only a few points less improvement in key categories in low-makeup guys compared to high makeup guys.

I'd be interested in what others have to say about makeup; I haven't watched it as carefully as age.

3/11/2014 10:06 AM
MikeT23
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If you want a good answer, go look at a previous draft from 4-6 seasons ago.   Check the development between the 18 y/o and 22 y/o who were drafted near one another. 

If you want a quick answer, I'd expect the development of a 22 y/o to be about half of a similar 18 y/o.    If your 22 y/o pitcher is a low-level BL player now, he'll be fine.  He'll add 8-12 points over the next three seasons.
3/11/2014 10:11 AM
MikeT23
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To answer your question more directly, I only invest in College or HS.   So age is meaningless to me.   Make-up matter for development/decline.   I use it as more of a tie-breaker than anything else.   If I have two players who project to be similar, I'll move the higher make-up ahead of the other guy even if he projects to be a slightly lesser player.  
3/11/2014 10:15 AM
dedelman
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Posted by MikeT23 on 3/11/2014 10:15:00 AM (view original):
To answer your question more directly, I only invest in College or HS.   So age is meaningless to me.   Make-up matter for development/decline.   I use it as more of a tie-breaker than anything else.   If I have two players who project to be similar, I'll move the higher make-up ahead of the other guy even if he projects to be a slightly lesser player.  
Age matters among college players.  Age is only meaningless if you invest only in HS.
3/11/2014 10:40 AM
MikeT23
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I think I have my own answers.    I don't care about the age of college players.   My projections for 19 y/o college players and 22 y/o college players are equally accurate.   Because they're projected using the same budget.    So, no, the age of the college player is meaningless to me.    And probably should be to everyone.

Wanna explain how I'm doing it all wrong now?
3/11/2014 10:45 AM
tecwrg
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A 22 year old college player is going to naturally be more developed than a 19 year old college player, and theoretically should have a smaller gap between his current and projected ratings.  In other words, a 22 year old has conceptually already had three years of "normal" development.

So Mike is basically right.  Age doesn't really matter for the college players, because the some of the progression and development is already baked into the player.

3/11/2014 11:04 AM
MikeT23
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Basically?   Unless you're using some crazy low scouting budget, I'm 100% right. 

3/11/2014 11:08 AM
tecwrg
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"In other words, a 22 year old has conceptually already had three years of "normal" development."

The keyword there is "normal" development.

If you've got very good training, medical and coaches, you might be able to get more development out of a 19 year old than his 22 year old counterpart.  Conversely, if you suck at developing prospects (low medical, low training, ****** coaches, neglecting to optimize playing time, etc.), then you might stunt a 19 year old's growth such that it is less than his 22 year old counterpart.
3/11/2014 11:17 AM
tecwrg
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So yeah.  "Basically" you're right.  Maybe 90% right.
3/11/2014 11:18 AM
MikeT23
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No.   The projections are the projections coming from the same scouting budget.   Now, if I want to delve deeper and look at current ratings, maybe something changes.   A 19 y/o is more likely to add 10 to something than a 22 y/o.     So if control is 62/72 for the 22 y/o and 62/72 for the 19 y/o, I'll assume the 19 y/o is more likely to get there.   But the projections still come from the same budget, even if they're misleading.

3/11/2014 12:38 PM
tecwrg
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In other words, you don't understand what I said in my 11:04am post.
3/11/2014 12:46 PM
MikeT23
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I fully understand.   Did you understand the post that proceeded that post?
3/11/2014 12:54 PM
tecwrg
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I did.  My post was essentially agreeing with you.  Then you apparently got argumentative about my post.

It takes a rare breed of person to get argumentative with somebody who's agreeing with you.  Unless you didn't understand what they were saying.

3/11/2014 1:01 PM
MikeT23
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You were "basically" saying I was right.  I wasn't "basically" right assuming you're not looking at projections thru a 3m scouting glass.    If anything, I probably should have said "If you have 12m+ in scouting, don't worry about the ages of college players.   The projections are age/development based and are equally accurate/inaccurate."

But I hate being wordy. 

3/11/2014 1:05 PM
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