DH $52 XLIV - Commentary Topic

Wait a minute.....seble has a dick?????

so... very... many... ways... to... respond....

fptzfs!!!! fptxtfsss!!!!

over load - over load - over load - over load - over   
3/27/2014 4:53 PM (edited)
Posted by jkaye24 on 3/27/2014 3:12:00 PM (view original):
Fair points Vance and heel and smoke

I would counter with:

Russell not being efficient in this league
- Russell can work just dandy in 52M. I just won 53 games, the bye and lost 4-3 to steelers in conf semis with Russell and Kobe. He can't shoot. True. He averaged 5 FGM on 11.5 FGA for me. Hardly a detremient when he is dishing and boarding while fouling at Wilt levels.

my efg is all at or below 50.

Some guys are, true. I won't lead the league in this category. Ewing is 55% with 29%usg. Kidd also 55% at 15%usg. Ok, maybe it doesn't help that much. But it's funny that according to you, Russell's misses are a huge issue while Kidds makes won't have much of an impact. Same usage level; let's call it a wash. Neither is there to score but their numbers on def, pf48, dreb and ast are all benefits.
TMac is lower but how many times can guys like him, Kobe and Wade take over in the playoffs even when it seems like they shouldn't be as influential?

Re: Ewing's foul trouble. It could be a problem, yes, especially since I need his efg to boost the team. But the backup C issue is null. I start 110% usage so there is a cushion. I think he will get his minutes, it's not like he is Tree Rollins. Dream always gets 40 MPG and fouls the same right?

Anyway, sorry to sound like nate by going on and on. You guys have more experience so I REALLY appreciate your feedback and for the chance to rationalize those aspects of my team. Can't wait to see what happens!
I forgot Ewing was up at 55% - been a while since I used him.  But your two highest usage guys are just above 50% (Carter and McGrady), Spoon is right at 50%, and Kidd and Russell essentially wash out to 50%.  In the ODL I think that's fine, but not here. That's going to put you well below league average in terms of efg%, and with a bunch of missed shots you don't have as much oreb% as you'd like to clean it up (my team has this problem, too). 

Plus, while your overall usage picture is fine, your individual breakdown is going to create wild swings of usage in your lineups.  You'll have some with a ton (when Ewing/Tmac/Vince are in together) and some with hardly any (when Ewing is out and only one of Vince/TMac is in).  Given Ewing's foul issues, this could be large parts of some games.  Your whole team is basically either huge usage or no usage, meaning your lineup just isn't very flexible and foul trouble will hurt you.  Plus you have basically no bench to speak of.  You're going to come to the site some days, see your team scored 89 points, and be like "wtf happened?"

Look, I don't think it's a bad team, but it's hard for me to see it winning 50 games or being a serious threat in the playoffs because of what I mentioned above. The good news for you is I'm wrong plenty of times.
3/27/2014 5:54 PM
Posted by thomcat on 3/20/2014 6:56:00 PM (view original):
JKaye's Russell-Ewing is very interesting. Russell compensates for Ewing's weaknesses. Could easily see those 2 along with Kidd and McGrady finally bringing Patrick a championship.
"Championship" is clearly hyperbole, but I'm in your corner. Of course, this is coming from someone with a 15-9-11-19 rating and a warm spot for Ewing. On another note, I kind of downplayed my assessment of my team but I was also surprised at my 15 and 19 rankings. 
3/27/2014 6:39 PM
Wait a minute. Vance you look like Hanzlik?!!!
That's hilarious HaHaHa!!!!
3/27/2014 7:48 PM
i finished the evals...thanks for the kind words guys...it was fun

3/27/2014 7:54 PM
Like I said in the sm message sixer I really look a lot more like a 6' 3" 200 lb version of Sabonis. I just don't want the rest of the guys in the league to get any more jealous of me than they already are LOL!

dh555: 5 Stars Really? Where's your 41% CREB rebounding beast? My squad has 2 of of them.

3/27/2014 8:30 PM
"Anyway, sorry to sound like nate by going on and on. You guys have more experience so I REALLY appreciate your feedback and for the chance to rationalize those aspects of my team. Can't wait to see what happens!"

Thanks for the shout-out jkaye, I'll be sure to circle the calendar for our two meetings this season and give you the best of my " A squad" minutes.
3/28/2014 10:21 AM
Vance, took a long look at the data this am. IMO I have a pf/fta advantage on you and a significant rebounding advantage for at least 1/2 the game and a slight rebounding advantage for the entire game. Wilt will own your foul monsters and who guards him when McHale is not on the court? Your perimeter D is a little better than LTB's so I'm most curious to see what my low usage high efg bombers do today. 

Decided to take my chances with the engine being smart enough to balance the use of C Ray and McMillan. In a perfect world only one would be on the court at the same time. Keeping all of McMillan's minutes at backup SG and using Barry at backup PG will hopefully come close to accomplishing that. If both play together then I fall behind in the pf/fta battle, and using only one keeps my assist% where it needs to be for the entire game and does not create the extreme swing of either having not enough or too much. Plus most teams carry weaker backup G's, so McMillan's WIS best 5.0% stl% (anything over 300 min) may generate the most benefit from the bench.

One more note to dh: still can't believe you would diss my man Darrell Walker, when his efg% is buried he is an absolute monster in the sim, even in this league.
3/28/2014 10:38 AM
jesus nate, fine, you're right, ok? forcing all your offense through a guy with an efg of 50% in a league where everyone else tries to channel their offense through guys who shoot 55% is pure genius
3/28/2014 10:56 AM (edited)
I acknowledge that there are others here (you for one) that know more about the inner workings of the engine than I do. But based on my observations for about my last 30 or so leagues I have assumed the following reasons why Wilt is NOT really a 50% efg player:
1.       His FG%+ is 119%. Ever notice how the 68-69 Jerry Lucas ALWAYS shoots a higher efg% in the sim? Lucas is a little better at FG%+ of 126%, and I KNOW RL efg% “accounts for more than half” of whether or not a shot is made, but Wilt’s 2pt%# is 51.4, so IMO the only way he doesn’t exceed RL is if you botch having enough assists around him.
2.       Also like Lucas he has far more RL FGAs and possessions than his usage tier. In this league last season there were 242,716.8 possessions, which on average is 10,113.2 possessions per team per game. His WIS usage%  is 36.1%, but his 4200 RL possessions is 41.5% of the number for an average team. IMO this means that Wilt hitting the individual penalty is a rare event, thus protecting his efg% from going below RL.
3.       For a majority of each game my team will have three players over 15% ast% and four over 8%. I have had numerous successes exceeding RL efg%’s for my players by “moving the ball around” as smokey would like to say.
4.       Wilt should be double-teamed at all times, and most of the league does not believe in the dt. If there was EVER a guy that the dt option on WIS was designed for then it’s this season of Wilt. This version of Wilt had OVER 900 more RL FGA’s than any other player in the entire database not named Wilt. IMO opponents neglecting to dt Wilt equates to more of an efg% bump, that is if you believe the WIS FAQ.
5.       My theory on the correlation between oreb%, additional put backs, and a corresponding efg bump. Your team will help answer this question as well, and I’m charting every single Wilt play myself, so I’ll know exactly what his tip in success rate is as well as all other types of shots.
If I were defending my team I’d dt Wilt for sure, and I’d honestly go +3. Teams that go -2 will get a taste of what LTB got last game (with a 0D setting btw) and watch my low usage bombers go 9 for 18 from the arc again.
When it’s all said and done I think a number of people will be saying WTF? Much like Vance will this afternoon when my team torches his.
3/28/2014 11:40 AM (edited)
good thing all that stuff only applies to Wilt and not any other player in the league (who wasn't drafted at #1) or for that matter any other season versions of Wilt himself that you could have used.....
3/28/2014 12:00 PM
Nate, you misunderstand how defensive positioning actually works.  Go back and really reread it.  Then think about this sentence and tell me what's wrong with it:

Teams that go -2 will get a taste of what LTB got last game (with a 0D setting btw) and watch my low usage bombers go 9 for 18 from the arc again.
3/28/2014 7:19 PM
Nate I screwed up by not setting my substitution to aggressive so all of my bigs played too few minutes in today's game. Of course your team will play better at home. 6 of of my teams first 9 games are on the road so you really won't be able to know what either of us have until at least 20 games into the season.
3/28/2014 7:34 PM
Ash, I'm honestly missing your point still after re-reading the FAQ. The Offensive Range designation in the engine for Battier HAS to be Perimeter since he took 87% of his shots from behind the arc, Hoiberg is 51-21-28, and Barry is 49-23-28, so I'd assume they are both labeled as Perimeter as well. So,from the way I read the FAQ a -2 setting would increase the chances of these three players hitting their triples and increase the chances of them taking a triple.
3/28/2014 10:13 PM

A -defensive positioning setting will force the opponent to take more outside shots (not make them, though they will get a slight bonus, it will be offset by what I'm about to say).  Now, perimeter will trump usage, as Wilt will not be taking 3s.  So you'll have lower usage guys shooting more than they did IRL (as they would have already with the low usage distribution), so now they'll hit the individual penalty even more than they would have already been doing.  So now they'll be turning the ball over even more & shooting worse than they did IRL.  Meanwhile, Wilt will have the defense in his face and not shooting as well as he should AND you're giving your opponent another board advantage.  It'd be different if you had enough usage around Wilt so that the extra shots won't hurt him, but I assume that you don't since you're using the 50ppg Wilt in the first place.

The positioning setting will impact your own team's defensive rebounding (the further away from the basket, the harder to rebound). It will impact your opponent's turnover and foul chances slightly, frequency of 3pt shots vs. 2pt shots, and of course both 2pt FG% and 3pt FG%.

Spare me the hypothetic response or the 2 or 3 game example of me being wrong.  RNG is the mother of all sim-*****, and you should know by now that even 10 or 20 games is a poor testament to what a team will actually do.  If you go 82 games where people play -2 & -3 against you and you win 50 games with everyone shooting within 5% of their IRL efg% while turning the ball over less than 22 per game, I'll eat crow.  Thing is, we won't find out because not everyone will do that.  Most owners won't touch the positioning.  I usually don't until I see a need to do so.  Your team would automatically get it set, though.

3/29/2014 1:37 AM (edited)
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DH $52 XLIV - Commentary Topic

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