I acknowledge that there are others here (you for one) that know more about the inner workings of the engine than I do. But based on my observations for about my last 30 or so leagues I have assumed the following reasons why Wilt is NOT really a 50% efg player:
1. His FG%+ is 119%. Ever notice how the 68-69 Jerry Lucas ALWAYS shoots a higher efg% in the sim? Lucas is a little better at FG%+ of 126%, and I KNOW RL efg% “accounts for more than half” of whether or not a shot is made, but Wilt’s 2pt%# is 51.4, so IMO the only way he doesn’t exceed RL is if you botch having enough assists around him.
2. Also like Lucas he has far more RL FGAs and possessions than his usage tier. In this league last season there were 242,716.8 possessions, which on average is 10,113.2 possessions per team per game. His WIS usage% is 36.1%, but his 4200 RL possessions is 41.5% of the number for an average team. IMO this means that Wilt hitting the individual penalty is a rare event, thus protecting his efg% from going below RL.
3. For a majority of each game my team will have three players over 15% ast% and four over 8%. I have had numerous successes exceeding RL efg%’s for my players by “moving the ball around” as smokey would like to say.
4. Wilt should be double-teamed at all times, and most of the league does not believe in the dt. If there was EVER a guy that the dt option on WIS was designed for then it’s this season of Wilt. This version of Wilt had OVER 900 more RL FGA’s than any other player in the entire database not named Wilt. IMO opponents neglecting to dt Wilt equates to more of an efg% bump, that is if you believe the WIS FAQ.
5. My theory on the correlation between oreb%, additional put backs, and a corresponding efg bump. Your team will help answer this question as well, and I’m charting every single Wilt play myself, so I’ll know exactly what his tip in success rate is as well as all other types of shots.
If I were defending my team I’d dt Wilt for sure, and I’d honestly go +3. Teams that go -2 will get a taste of what LTB got last game (with a 0D setting btw) and watch my low usage bombers go 9 for 18 from the arc again.
When it’s all said and done I think a number of people will be saying WTF? Much like Vance will this afternoon when my team torches his.
3/28/2014 11:40 AM (edited)