How much of a disadvantage is zone defense? Topic

Posted by guyo26 on 5/13/2014 8:22:00 AM (view original):
Sorry, should have been more clear about DEF.  I like your camp of certain roles for a player, and to me defense is much more than the DEF rating.  I can see all of that being averaged as you say, but other than something like ATH being a rating that affects more than one role, really affects everything, rebounding is a different role than defense.

Although I never considered IQ being averaged out, which I suppose is silly.  If there's any defense where averages apply, it's zone.  Hmmm.

My one problem with what we've learned about the zone in the last few weeks is shotblocking.  Looking across my teams, I just don't see a big difference in that result as opposed to man or FB.  Of course that could very easily just be my players/teams, but I don't see a surge in it at the 5.  I do see better rebounding, in general, but not more blocked shots.
You'd see it more if you had 80 - 90ish guys in SB and ran a 2-3. 2-3 gets more blocks than 3-2 I've noticed.
5/13/2014 8:52 AM

It also depends on how the opponent plays you offensively.

5/13/2014 8:53 AM
alright... im going to try my best to capture the essence of the answers to the follow up questions outlined earlier.
here are the questions to seble with his answers and all - i didn't just post the whole tickets, its harder to follow, i took the relevant parts and grouped them by issue:

1) (CBG) are players averaged in the zone just for the purpose of defense, or also, for rebounding? on the defensive side, does the averaging together include IQ, and does it extend to steals and fouls?

1) (seble) No, rebounding is an individual-based decision, not a team-based decision. That means that each player is factored in independently. The only zone impact is that playing a zone will increase the odds for each offensive player to get a rebound.

2) (CBG) are there different kinds of two point shots? the questions has often been debated if all 2s are figured using the same equations, or if there are in the paint type 2 point shots, and mid range jumper type 2 point shots - or is it something else, like a smooth gradient across the gamut of 2 point shots?

2) (seble) Yes, there are basically two types - mid-range shots and paint shots. They are calculated differently, where mid-range shots factor in the perimeter rating along with the low post rating.

2) (CBG) do guards and bigs take both kinds of 2 point shots?

2) (seble) Yes, shot distributions depend on ratio of perimeter to low post. Higher perimeter rating compared to low post leads to more mid-range 2's, and the opposite is true for higher low post.

3) (CBG) based on this answer, how do the different groupings of players in the zone tie into defending particular kinds of shots? for example, we were all very surprised about the center being figured alone in the 2-3 (although we all agree its realistic and like the idea). is he merely calculated differently, and then averaged in with the sf/pf? or does the center defend in the paint type 2 pointers by himself, while the sf/pf are responsible for jump shot type 2 pointers? or is it some combination, like the center might be half the weight for the paint type shots, and the sf/pf the other half? presumably the perimeter players don't just guard 3s, do they also have a role in defending 2s?

3) (CBG) I am going to have to paraphrase here, rather that just quote seble directly. I might include some of his comments directly, I'll make that clear either way. I thought I had more time but this ended up going on for 5 pages of back and forths and now the kids are screaming, so I'll edit later with the rest of it.

5/15/2014 3:05 PM
" Yes, there are basically two types - mid-range shots and paint shots. They are calculated differently, where mid-range shots factor in the perimeter rating along with the low post rating."

Can you ask if these are DEFENDED differently?
5/16/2014 9:06 AM
1 (seble) ... does he mean each DEFENSIVE player to get a rebound?  Or is that saying that Zone gives up more offensive rebounds to the other team?

All of a sudden the 4 is starting to look more like the 3 ... assuming that DEF ability differs when guarding mid range shots.

Hmmm.  Half of me wants to scrap my zone experiments and half of me is more and more intrigued.
5/16/2014 9:49 AM
Wait--in real life, it's HARDER, not easier to rebound out of a zone. Yet Seble says it's the opposite of that here?
5/16/2014 10:01 AM
He's saying the OFFENSIVE team gets a % increase in rebounding missing shots when the DEFENSE plays zone.
5/16/2014 10:05 AM

"does he mean each DEFENSIVE player to get a rebound?  Or is that saying that Zone gives up more offensive rebounds to the other team?"

I'm reading that as:

A) Rebounding abilities are not averaged and are factored on some sort of individual matchup.

& B) Running zone boosts opponents offensive rebounding.

 

5/16/2014 10:06 AM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/16/2014 9:06:00 AM (view original):
" Yes, there are basically two types - mid-range shots and paint shots. They are calculated differently, where mid-range shots factor in the perimeter rating along with the low post rating."

Can you ask if these are DEFENDED differently?
they are, in the zone at least.
5/16/2014 10:15 AM
Posted by beefburglar on 5/16/2014 10:06:00 AM (view original):

"does he mean each DEFENSIVE player to get a rebound?  Or is that saying that Zone gives up more offensive rebounds to the other team?"

I'm reading that as:

A) Rebounding abilities are not averaged and are factored on some sort of individual matchup.

& B) Running zone boosts opponents offensive rebounding.

 

this is true, although it was only a couple years ago an individual matchup was added to rebounding. i thought rebounding was still a team game to a certain extent. i think all he is saying here is that rebounding is not figured differently for zone than for anything else, except that you take a rebounding penalty.
5/16/2014 10:17 AM
By equation or by defender?

I think that if a PF is using the SPD/PER scoring option the defender's SPD scorer is more valuable and BLK scorer less.

I really think this is why guards with high LP are successful.   I think the ATH/LP is rolled against the defenders ATH/BLK/DEF with BLK playing a more significant percentage.

I would love for that to be verified.
5/16/2014 10:19 AM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/16/2014 10:19:00 AM (view original):
By equation or by defender?

I think that if a PF is using the SPD/PER scoring option the defender's SPD scorer is more valuable and BLK scorer less.

I really think this is why guards with high LP are successful.   I think the ATH/LP is rolled against the defenders ATH/BLK/DEF with BLK playing a more significant percentage.

I would love for that to be verified.
interesting question. in zone, it does seem to work sort of like you are saying... sort of. its not what i expected. let me get that explained in a coherent manner and we can try to make sense of it, and then maybe ask if the same thing happens in man and press? pretty busy today, might not get to it until later.
5/16/2014 10:23 AM

One thing I've been pondering a lot, but havent really come across a definitive answer:

In regards to the extra man on the perimeter in the 3-2, ( & the extra man down low in the 2-3) - 

Is there general consensus on whether there is some sort of inherent bonus to perimeter defense with the 3-2, and conversely, bonused paint defense in the 2-3 set? ( I've always operated as if there was)

How do you guys see this working?

Does the extra man come with a bonus? Or is it just about averages? (How much "help" is the "extra help"?)

Do any sage-words from seble on the topic exist?

5/16/2014 10:35 AM (edited)
I don't see it as a bonus, I see it as upping the average. 

I don't know that spacing or defenders in the area are taken into account in the engine.  Well, too an extent that's +/-, but in theory a man playing + and a 3-2 playing + or 0 is the bonus.  That brings up the debate of is a 3-2 really man +2 or whatever.  

I think I just talked on both sides lol.
5/16/2014 10:40 AM
Posted by guyo26 on 5/16/2014 10:40:00 AM (view original):
I don't see it as a bonus, I see it as upping the average. 

I don't know that spacing or defenders in the area are taken into account in the engine.  Well, too an extent that's +/-, but in theory a man playing + and a 3-2 playing + or 0 is the bonus.  That brings up the debate of is a 3-2 really man +2 or whatever.  

I think I just talked on both sides lol.
(I just realized I quoted the wrong post, this is more in response to beefburglars)

This is what I think.   I don't know if this is general consensus but some off it probably is:

1. A 3-2 limits 3FGA.  It also decrease the rate they go in.
2. The 2-3 increases 3FGA.   It also increases their success rate.
3. The 3-2 has a positive defensive effect against guards who score.
4. The 2-3 has a negative defensive effect  for guard scoring.
5.  Number 1 may just be an example of #3.
6. A 3-2 (0) and a 2-3 (+2) are about the same.   I think there will be less 3FGA's in the 3-2 but the success rate will probably be lower in the 2-3.
7. IIn a nut shell,  I think just having the extra defender  prevents shots.   His defensive metrics influence if the shot goes in.
5/16/2014 10:58 AM
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How much of a disadvantage is zone defense? Topic

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