Posted by The Taint on 5/15/2014 12:24:00 PM (view original):
For example....according to your graph:
1st and 2nd, no outs: .643 chance to score. Batter K's 1st and 2nd, 1 out: .429 chance to score Batter SH: 2nd and third, 1 out: .698 chance to score
Big difference in the type of out?
You went from a 64.3% chance of scoring one run to a 69.8% chance of scoring one run. That's a relatively small increase.
If you K, it goes down to 42.9%, a big decrease. If you hit a hard grounder to short instead of a whatever SH moves them over, your chance of scoring one run goes down to 27%. An even bigger decrease.