First of all, Florida Gulf Coast made it to the Sweet Sixteen, not the Final Four. Two extra wins against better competition is a BIG difference.
There is no such thing as "momentum" in this game. No feelings to take into consideration, no personal problems for kids to experience, no highs and lows, elation and depression, simply ratings. Numbers and letter grades for IQ (which are themselves numbers, albeit behind the scenes). As such, it is simply impossible to attempt to compare whether an HD team is better, equivalent, or worse than some random corresponding real world team. Especially since real world teams and players don't have "ratings" attached to them that help determine the outcome of games.